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Abstract Applications of process‐based models (PBM) for predictions are confounded by multiple uncertainties and computational burdens, resulting in appreciable errors. A novel modeling framework combining a high‐fidelity PBM with surrogate and machine learning (ML) models is developed to tackle these challenges and applied for streamflow prediction. A surrogate model permits high computational efficiency of a PBM solution at a minimum loss of its accuracy. A novel probabilistic ML model partitions the PBM‐surrogate prediction errors into reducible and irreducible types, quantifying their distributions that arise due to both explicitly perceived uncertainties (such as parametric) or those that are entirely hidden to the modeler (not included or unexpected). Using this approach, we demonstrate a substantial improvement of streamflow predictive accuracy for a case study urbanized watershed. Such a framework provides an efficient solution combining the strengths of high‐fidelity and physics‐agnostic models for a wide range of prediction problems in geosciences.
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Feature Engineering for Surrogate Models of Consolidation Degree in Additive Manufacturing
Surrogate models (SM) serve as a proxy to the physics- and experiment-based models to significantly lower the cost of prediction while providing high accuracy. Building an SM for additive manufacturing (AM) process suffers from high dimensionality of inputs when part geometry or tool-path is considered in addition to the high cost of generating data from either physics-based models or experiments. This paper engineers features for a surrogate model to predict the consolidation degree in the fused filament fabrication process. Our features are informed by the physics of the underlying thermal processes and capture the characteristics of the part’s geometry and the deposition process. Our model is learned from medium-size data generated using a physics-based thermal model coupled with the polymer healing theory to determine the consolidation degree. Our results demonstrate high accuracy (>90%) of consolidation degree prediction at a low computational cost (four orders of magnitude faster than the numerical model).
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- Award ID(s):
- 1910539
- PAR ID:
- 10223904
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Materials
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1996-1944
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2239
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/ma14092239
