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1. Estimating the net effect of functional traits on fitness across species and environments

   https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14079  

   Siefert, Andrew; Laughlin, Daniel C. (March 2023, Methods in Ecology and Evolution)

   Abstract Functional traits affect the demographic performance of individuals in their environment, leading to fitness differences that scale up to drive population dynamics and community assembly. Understanding the links between traits and fitness is, therefore, critical for predicting how populations and communities respond to environmental change. However, the net effects of traits on species fitness are largely unknown because we have lacked a framework for estimating fitness across multiple species and environments.We present a modelling framework that integrates trait effects on demographic performance over the life cycles of individuals to estimate the net effect of traits on species fitness. This approach involves (1) modelling trait effects on individual demographic rates (growth, survival and recruitment) as multidimensional performance surfaces that vary with individual size and environment and (2) integrating these effects into a population model to project population growth rates (i.e., fitness) as a function of traits and environment. We illustrate our approach by estimating performance surfaces and fitness landscapes for trees across a temperature gradient in the eastern United States.Functional traits (wood density, specific leaf area and maximum height) interacted with individual size and temperature to influence tree growth, survival and recruitment rates, generating demographic trade‐offs and shaping the contours of fitness landscapes. Tall tree species had high survival, growth and fitness across the temperature gradient. Wood density and specific leaf area had interactive effects on demographic performance, resulting in fitness landscapes with multiple peaks.With this approach it is now possible to empirically estimate the net effect of traits on fitness, leading to an improved understanding of the selective forces that drive community assembly and permitting generalizable predictions of population and community dynamics in changing environments. 

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2. Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13975  

   Macdonald, Kaitlin R.; Rotella, Jay J.; Paterson, J. Terrill (July 2023, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   1. Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. 2. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. 3. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. 4. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. 5. population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits. 

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3. Functional traits predict species responses to environmental variation in a California grassland annual plant community

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13845  

   Kandlikar, Gaurav S.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Kraft, Nathan J. B. (February 2022, Journal of Ecology)

   Abstract Turnover in species composition and the dominant functional strategies in plant communities across environmental gradients is a common pattern across biomes, and is often assumed to reflect shifts in trait optima. However, the extent to which community‐wide trait turnover patterns reflect changes in how plant traits affect the vital rates that ultimately determine fitness remain unclear.We tested whether shifts in the community‐weighted means of four key functional traits across an environmental gradient in a southern California grassland reflect variation in how these traits affect species' germination and fecundity across the landscape.We asked whether models that included trait–environment interactions help explain variation in two key vital rates (germination rates and fecundity), as well as an integrative measure of fitness incorporating both vital rates (the product of germination rate and fecundity). To do so, we planted seeds of 17 annual plant species at 16 sites in cleared patches with no competitors, and quantified the lifetime seed production of 1360 individuals. We also measured community composition and a variety of abiotic variables across the same sites. This allowed us to evaluate whether observed shifts in community‐weighted mean traits matched the direction of any trait–environment interactions detected in the plant performance experiment.We found that commonly measured plant functional traits do help explain variation in species responses to the environment—for example, high‐SLA species had a demographic advantage (higher germination rates and fecundity) in sites with high soil Ca:Mg levels, while low‐SLA species had an advantage in low Ca:Mg soils. We also found that shifts in community‐weighted mean traits often reflect the direction of these trait–environment interactions, though not all trait–environment relationships at the community level reflect changes in optimal trait values across these gradients.Synthesis. Our results show how shifts in trait–fitness relationships can give rise to turnover in plant phenotypes across environmental gradients, a fundamental pattern in ecology. We highlight the value of plant functional traits in predicting species responses to environmental variation, and emphasise the need for more widespread study of trait–performance relationships to improve predictions of community responses to global change. 

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4. Local Adaptation Is Highest in Populations With Stable Long‐Term Growth

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70071  

   Carley, Lauren_N; Geber, Monica_A; Morris, William_F; Eckhart, Vincent_M; Moeller, David_A (February 2025, Ecology Letters)

   ABSTRACT Theory suggests that the drivers of demographic variation and local adaptation are shared and may feedback on one other. Despite some evidence for these links in controlled settings, the relationship between local adaptation and demography remains largely unexplored in natural conditions. Using 10 years of demographic data and two reciprocal transplant experiments, we tested predictions about the relationship between the magnitude of local adaptation and demographic variation (population growth rates and their elasticities to vital rates) across 10 populations of a well‐studied annual plant. In both years, we found a strong unimodal relationship between mean home‐away local adaptation and stochastic population growth rates. Other predicted links were either weakly or not supported by our data. Our results suggest that declining and rapidly growing populations exhibit reduced local adaptation, potentially due to maladaptation and relaxed selection, respectively. 

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5. Interactions between fitness components across the life cycle constrain competitor coexistence

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13927  

   Gómez‐Llano, Miguel; Boys, Wade A.; Ping, Taylor; Tye, Simon P.; Siepielski, Adam M. (April 2023, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Abstract Numerous mechanisms can promote competitor coexistence. Yet, these mechanisms are often considered in isolation from one another. Consequently, whether multiple mechanisms shaping coexistence combine to promote or constrain species coexistence remains an open question.Here, we aim to understand how multiple mechanisms interact within and between life stages to determine frequency‐dependent population growth, which has a key role stabilizing local competitor coexistence.We conducted field experiments in three lakes manipulating relative frequencies of twoEnallagmadamselfly species to evaluate demographic contributions of three mechanisms affecting different fitness components across the life cycle: the effect of resource competition on individual growth rate, predation shaping mortality rates, and mating harassment determining fecundity. We then used a demographic model that incorporates carry‐over effects between life stages to decompose the relative effect of each fitness component generating frequency‐dependent population growth.This decomposition showed that fitness components combined to increase population growth rates for one species when rare, but they combined to decrease population growth rates for the other species when rare, leading to predicted exclusion in most lakes.Because interactions between fitness components within and between life stages vary among populations, these results show that local coexistence is population specific. Moreover, we show that multiple mechanisms do not necessarily increase competitor coexistence, as they can also combine to yield exclusion. Identifying coexistence mechanisms in other systems will require greater focus on determining contributions of different fitness components across the life cycle shaping competitor coexistence in a way that captures the potential for population‐level variation. 

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