Electricity and water systems are inextricably linked through water demands for energy generation, and through energy demands for using, moving, and treating water and wastewater. Climate change may stress these interdependencies, together referred to as the energy-water nexus, by reducing water availability for hydropower generation and by increasing irrigation and electricity demand for groundwater pumping, among other feedbacks. Further, many climate adaptation measures to augment water supplies—such as water recycling and desalination—are energy-intensive. However, water and electricity system climate vulnerabilities and adaptations are often studied in isolation, without considering how multiple interactive risks may compound. This paper reviews the fragmented literature and develops a generalized framework for understanding these implications of climate change on the energy-water nexus. We apply this framework in a case study to quantify end-century direct climate impacts on California’s water and electricity resources and estimate the magnitude of the indirect cross-sectoral feedback of electricity demand from various water adaptation strategies. Our results show that increased space cooling demand and decreased hydropower generation are the most significant direct climate change impacts on California’s electricity sector by end-century. In California’s water sector, climate change impacts directly on surface water availability exceed demand changes, but have considerable uncertainty, both in direction and magnitude. Additionally, we find that the energy demands of water sector climate adaptations could significantly affect California’s future electricity system needs. If the worst-case water shortage occurs under climate change, water-conserving adaptation measures can provide large energy savings co-benefits, but other energy-intensive water adaptations may double the direct impacts of climate change on the state’s electricity resource requirement. These results highlight the value of coordinated adaptation planning between the energy and water sectors to achieve mutually beneficial solutions for climate resilience.
- Award ID(s):
- 1829999
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10226127
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 118
- Issue:
- 14
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e2020431118
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract -
Abstract Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of ‘blue foods’, defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.more » « less
-
Sea level rise (SLR) may impose substantial economic costs to coastal communities worldwide, but characterizing its global impact remains challenging because SLR costs depend heavily on natural characteristics and human investments at each location – including topography, the spatial distribution of assets, and local adaptation decisions. To date, several impact models have been developed to estimate the global costs of SLR. Yet, the limited availability of open-source and modular platforms that easily ingest up-to-date socioeconomic and physical data sources restricts the ability of existing systems to incorporate new insights transparently. In this paper, we present a modular, open-source platform designed to address this need, providing end-to-end transparency from global input data to a scalable least-cost optimization framework that estimates adaptation and net SLR costs for nearly 10 000 global coastline segments and administrative regions. Our approach accounts both for uncertainty in the magnitude of global mean sea level (g.m.s.l.) rise and spatial variability in local relative sea level rise. Using this platform, we evaluate costs across 230 possible socioeconomic and SLR trajectories in the 21st century. According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR6), g.m.s.l. is likely to rise during the 21st century by 0.40–0.69 m if late-century warming reaches 2 ∘C and by 0.58–0.91 m with 4 ∘C of warming (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). With no forward-looking adaptation, we estimate that annual costs of sea level rise associated with a 2 ∘C scenario will likely fall between USD 1.2 and 4.0 trillion (0.1 % and 1.2 % of GDP, respectively) by 2100, depending on socioeconomic and sea level rise trajectories. Cost-effective, proactive adaptation would provide substantial benefits, lowering these values to between USD 110 and USD 530 billion (0.02 and 0.06 %) under an optimal adaptation scenario. For the likely SLR trajectories associated with 4 ∘C warming, these costs range from USD 3.1 to 6.9 trillion (0.3 % and 2.0 %) with no forward-looking adaptation and USD 200 billion to USD 750 billion (0.04 % to 0.09 %) under optimal adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that deeply uncertain physical processes like marine ice cliff instability could drive substantially higher global sea level rise, potentially approaching 2.0 m by 2100 in very high emission scenarios. Accordingly, we also model the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 m g.m.s.l. rises by 2100; the associated annual cost estimates range from USD 11.2 to 30.6 trillion (1.2 % and 7.6 %) under no forward-looking adaptation and USD 420 billion to 1.5 trillion (0.08 % to 0.20 %) under optimal adaptation. Our modeling platform used to generate these estimates is publicly available in an effort to spur research collaboration and support decision-making, with segment-level physical and socioeconomic input characteristics provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693868 (Bolliger et al., 2023a) and model results at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693869 (Bolliger et al., 2023b).more » « less
-
Abstract This study investigates municipal water use patterns across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The objectives of this study are to explore temporal trends in water use, improve characterization of indoor and outdoor uses, and improve characterization of commercial, industrial, and institutional (CII) water use in cities across the CONUS. A comprehensive survey was conducted to compile monthly water use data from 126 municipalities for the period 2005–2017 with specific information about residential and CII water use categories. Changes in liters per capita per day and the CII to Residential water use ratio were related to climatic, urban‐geologic and socio‐economic variables. Results indicate an overall decreasing trend in municipal water uses with higher reductions achieved in residential sector. Both residential and CII water use exhibit high seasonality over an average year. The CII to Residential ratio increases with city population and is highest in cities in the Northeast Census region. Cities in South and West Census regions have high municipal water uses and highest reductions in annual per capita‐day water use. Cities in arid climate regions have the highest water uses, compared to other cities, due to landscape irrigation. April precipitation, annual vapor pressure deficit, number of employees in the manufacturing (or, other services except public administration) sector, total percentage of houses built before 1950 and total percentage of single‐family houses explain much of the variation in CII to Residential water use ratio across the CONUS. This study guides improved characterization of municipal water uses and water demand management strategies.
-
Abstract Rising salinity from road deicing salts threatens the survival and reproduction of freshwater organisms. We conducted two experiments to address how
Daphnia pulex survival and reproduction were affected by road salt concentration (control, 120, 640 and 1200 mg Cl−/L) crossed with three concentrations of water hardness (20, 97, 185 mg CaCO3/L).D. pulex survival was poor in our hard water treatment in both experiments (185 mg CaCO3/L), potentially indicating a low tolerance to hard water for the strain used in our experiments. With the remaining two hardness treatments (20 and 97 mg CaCO3/L), we found no evidence of an interactive effect between salt concentration and water hardness onD. pulex survival. In our population-level experiment,D. pulex survival was reduced by > 60% at 120 mg Cl−/L compared to the control. In the individual experiment, survival was similar between the control and 120 mg Cl−/L, but ≤ 40% of individuals survived in 640 and 1200 mg Cl−/L. For the surviving individuals across all treatments, the number of offspring produced per individual declined with increasing Cl−concentration and in hard water. Our results indicate that current Cl−thresholds may not protect some zooplankton and reduced food availability per capita may enhance the negative impacts of road salt.