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1. Atomic Transition Probabilities of Neutral Calcium*

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ac04b1  

   Den Hartog, E. A.; Lawler, J. E.; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J.; Roederer, I. U.; Sobeck, J. (August 2021, The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series)
2. Connection probabilities of multiple FK-Ising interfaces

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-024-01269-1  

   Feng, Yu; Peltola, Eveliina; Wu, Hao (June 2024, Probability Theory and Related Fields)

   Abstract We find the scaling limits of a general class of boundary-to-boundary connection probabilities and multiple interfaces in the critical planar FK-Ising model, thus verifying predictions from the physics literature. We also discuss conjectural formulas using Coulomb gas integrals for the corresponding quantities in general critical planar random-cluster models with cluster-weight$${q \in [1,4)}$$ $q\in [1,4)$. Thus far, proofs for convergence, including ours, rely on discrete complex analysis techniques and are beyond reach for other values ofqthan the FK-Ising model ($$q=2$$ $q=2$). Given the convergence of interfaces, the conjectural formulas for other values ofqcould be verified similarly with relatively minor technical work. The limit interfaces are variants of$$\text {SLE}_\kappa $$ ${\text{SLE}}_{\kappa }$curves (with$$\kappa = 16/3$$ $\kappa =16/3$for$$q=2$$ $q=2$). Their partition functions, that give the connection probabilities, also satisfy properties predicted for correlation functions in conformal field theory (CFT), expected to describe scaling limits of critical random-cluster models. We verify these properties for all$$q \in [1,4)$$ $q\in [1,4)$, thus providing further evidence of the expected CFT description of these models. 

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3. Extreme hitting probabilities for diffusion*

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/ac8191  

   Linn, Samantha; Lawley, Sean D (August 2022, Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical)

   Abstract A variety of systems in physics, chemistry, biology, and psychology are modeled in terms of diffusing ‘searchers’ looking for ‘targets’. Examples range from gene regulation, to cell sensing, to human decision-making. A commonly studied statistic in these models is the so-called hitting probability for each target, which is the probability that a given single searcher finds that particular target. However, the decisive event in many systems is not the arrival of a given single searcher to a target, but rather the arrival of the fastest searcher to a target out of many searchers. In this paper, we study the probability that the fastest diffusive searcher hits a given target in the many searcher limit, which we call the extreme hitting probability. We first prove an upper bound for the decay of the probability that the searcher finds a target other than the closest target. This upper bound applies in very general settings and depends only on the relative distances to the targets. Furthermore, we find the exact asymptotics of the extreme hitting probabilities in terms of the short-time distribution of when a single searcher hits a target. These results show that the fastest searcher always hits the closest target in the many searcher limit. While this fact is intuitive in light of recent results on the time it takes the fastest searcher to find a target, our results give rigorous, quantitative estimates for the extreme hitting probabilities. We illustrate our results in several examples and numerical solutions. 

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4. Probabilities of ion scattering at the shock front

   https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022377822000034  

   Gedalin, Michael; Pogorelov, Nikolai V.; Roytershteyn, Vadim (February 2022, Journal of Plasma Physics)

   Collisionless shocks efficiently convert the energy of the directed ion flow into their thermal energy. Ion distributions change drastically at the magnetized shock crossing. Even in the absence of collisions, ion dynamics within the shock front is non-integrable and gyrophase dependent. The downstream distributions just behind the shock are not gyrotropic but become so quickly due to the kinematic gyrophase mixing even in laminar shocks. During the gyrotropization all information about gyrophases is lost. Here we develop a mapping of upstream and downstream gyrotropic distributions in terms of scattering probabilities at the shock front. An analytical expression for the probability is derived for directly transmitted ions in the narrow shock approximation. The dependence of the probability on the magnetic compression and the cross-shock potential is demonstrated. 

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5. Capacities and efficient computation of first-passage probabilities

   Loper, J; Zhou, G; Geman, S. (August 2020, Physical review)

   A reversible diffusion process is initialized at position x0 and run until it first hits any of several targets. What is the probability that it terminates at a particular target? We propose a computationally efficient approach for estimating this probability, focused on those situations in which it takes a long time to hit any target. In these cases, direct simulation of the hitting probabilities becomes prohibitively expensive. On the other hand, if the timescales are sufficiently long, then the system will essentially “forget” its initial condition before it encounters a target. In these cases the hitting probabilities can be accurately approximated using only local simulations around each target, obviating the need for direct simulations. In empirical tests, we find that these local estimates can be computed in the same time it would take to compute a single direct simulation, but that they achieve an accuracy that would require thousands of direct simulation runs. 

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