An effective real-time estimation of the travel time for vehicles, using AVL (Automatic Vehicle Locators) has added a new dimension to the smart city planning. In this paper, the authors used data collected over several months from a transit agency and show how this data can be potentially used to learn patterns of travel time during specially planned events like NFL (National Football League) games and music award ceremonies. The impact of NFL games along with consideration of other factors like weather, traffic condition, distance is discussed with their relative importance to the prediction of travel time. Statistical learning models are used to predict travel time and subsequently assess the cascading effects of delay. The model performance is determined based on its predictive accuracy according to the out-of-sample error. In addition, the models help identify the most significant variables that influence the delay in the transit system. In order to compare the actual and predicted travel time for days having special events, heat maps are generated showing the delay impacts in different time windows between two timepoint-segments in comparison to a non-game day. This work focuses on the prediction and visualization of the delay in the public transit system and the analysis of its cascading effects on the entire transportation network. According to the study results, the authors are able to explain more than 80% of the variance in the bus travel time at each segment and can make future travel predictions during planned events with an out-of-sample error of 2.0 minutes using information on the bus schedule, traffic, weather, and scheduled events. According to the variable importance analysis, traffic information is most significant in predicting the delay in the transit system.
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Data-driven Bus Crowding Prediction Models Using Context-specific Features
Public transit is one of the first things that come to mind when someone talks about “smart cities.” As a result, many technologies, applications, and infrastructure have already been deployed to bring the promise of the smart city to public transportation. Most of these have focused on answering the question, “When will my bus arrive?”; little has been done to answer the question, “How full will my next bus be?” which also dramatically affects commuters’ quality of life. In this article, we consider the bus fullness problem. In particular, we propose two different formulations of the problem, develop multiple predictive models, and evaluate their accuracy using data from the Pittsburgh region. Our predictive models consistently outperform the baselines (by up to 8 times).
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- Award ID(s):
- 1739413
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10229761
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACM/IMS Transactions on Data Science
- Volume:
- 1
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2691-1922
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 33
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3406962
