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1. Distributed Bayesian Varying Coefficient Modeling Using a Gaussian Process Prior

   Guhaniyogi, R. ; Li, C. ; Savitsky, T.D. ; Srivastava, S. ( May 2022 , Journal of machine learning research)

   McCulloch, R. (Ed.)

   Varying coefficient models (VCMs) are widely used for estimating nonlinear regression functions for functional data. Their Bayesian variants using Gaussian process priors on the functional coefficients, however, have received limited attention in massive data applications, mainly due to the prohibitively slow posterior computations using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. We address this problem using a divide-and-conquer Bayesian approach. We first create a large number of data subsamples with much smaller sizes. Then, we formulate the VCM as a linear mixed-effects model and develop a data augmentation algorithm for obtaining MCMC draws on all the subsets in parallel. Finally, we aggregate the MCMC-based estimates of subset posteriors into a single Aggregated Monte Carlo (AMC) posterior, which is used as a computationally efficient alternative to the true posterior distribution. Theoretically, we derive minimax optimal posterior convergence rates for the AMC posteriors of both the varying coefficients and the mean regression function. We provide quantification on the orders of subset sample sizes and the number of subsets. The empirical results show that the combination schemes that satisfy our theoretical assumptions, including the AMC posterior, have better estimation performance than their main competitors across diverse simulations and in a real data analysis. 

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2. PyDREAM: high-dimensional parameter inference for biological models in python

   https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btx626  

   Shockley, Erin M. ; Vrugt, Jasper A. ; Lopez, Carlos F. ; Valencia, ed., Alfonso ( October 2017 , Bioinformatics)

   Biological models contain many parameters whose values are difficult to measure directly via experimentation and therefore require calibration against experimental data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are suitable to estimate multivariate posterior model parameter distributions, but these methods may exhibit slow or premature convergence in high-dimensional search spaces. Here, we present PyDREAM, a Python implementation of the (Multiple-Try) Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis [DREAM(ZS)] algorithm developed by Vrugt and ter Braak (2008) and Laloy and Vrugt (2012). PyDREAM achieves excellent performance for complex, parameter-rich models and takes full advantage of distributed computing resources, facilitating parameter inference and uncertainty estimation of CPU-intensive biological models.

   PyDREAM is freely available under the GNU GPLv3 license from the Lopez lab GitHub repository at http://github.com/LoLab-VU/PyDREAM.

   Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

    

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3. A Statistical Hypothesis Testing Strategy for Adaptively Blending Particle Filters and Ensemble Kalman Filters for Data Assimilation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0108.1  

   Kurosawa, Kenta ; Poterjoy, Jonathan ( January 2023 , Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract Particle filters avoid parametric estimates for Bayesian posterior densities, which alleviates Gaussian assumptions in nonlinear regimes. These methods, however, are more sensitive to sampling errors than Gaussian-based techniques such as ensemble Kalman filters. A recent study by the authors introduced an iterative strategy for particle filters that match posterior moments—where iterations improve the filter’s ability to draw samples from non-Gaussian posterior densities. The iterations follow from a factorization of particle weights, providing a natural framework for combining particle filters with alternative filters to mitigate the impact of sampling errors. The current study introduces a novel approach to forming an adaptive hybrid data assimilation methodology, exploiting the theoretical strengths of nonparametric and parametric filters. At each data assimilation cycle, the iterative particle filter performs a sequence of updates while the prior sample distribution is non-Gaussian, then an ensemble Kalman filter provides the final adjustment when Gaussian distributions for marginal quantities are detected. The method employs the Shapiro–Wilk test to determine when to make the transition between filter algorithms, which has outstanding power for detecting departures from normality. Experiments using low-dimensional models demonstrate that the approach has a significant value, especially for nonhomogeneous observation networks and unknown model process errors. Moreover, hybrid factors are extended to consider marginals of more than one collocated variables using a test for multivariate normality. Findings from this study motivate the use of the proposed method for geophysical problems characterized by diverse observation networks and various dynamic instabilities, such as numerical weather prediction models. Significance Statement Data assimilation statistically processes observation errors and model forecast errors to provide optimal initial conditions for the forecast, playing a critical role in numerical weather forecasting. The ensemble Kalman filter, which has been widely adopted and developed in many operational centers, assumes Gaussianity of the prior distribution and solves a linear system of equations, leading to bias in strong nonlinear regimes. On the other hand, particle filters avoid many of those assumptions but are sensitive to sampling errors and are computationally expensive. We propose an adaptive hybrid strategy that combines their advantages and minimizes the disadvantages of the two methods. The hybrid particle filter–ensemble Kalman filter is achieved with the Shapiro–Wilk test to detect the Gaussianity of the ensemble members and determine the timing of the transition between these filter updates. Demonstrations in this study show that the proposed method is advantageous when observations are heterogeneous and when the model has an unknown bias. Furthermore, by extending the statistical hypothesis test to the test for multivariate normality, we consider marginals of more than one collocated variable. These results encourage further testing for real geophysical problems characterized by various dynamic instabilities, such as real numerical weather prediction models. 

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4. Clustering Using Objective Functions and Stochastic Search

   https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00629.x  

   Booth, James G. ; Casella, George ; Hobert, James P. ( January 2008 , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology)

   A new approach to clustering multivariate data, based on a multilevel linear mixed model, is proposed. A key feature of the model is that observations from the same cluster are correlated, because they share cluster-specific random effects. The inclusion of cluster-specific random effects allows parsimonious departure from an assumed base model for cluster mean profiles. This departure is captured statistically via the posterior expectation, or best linear unbiased predictor. One of the parameters in the model is the true underlying partition of the data, and the posterior distribution of this parameter, which is known up to a normalizing constant, is used to cluster the data. The problem of finding partitions with high posterior probability is not amenable to deterministic methods such as the EM algorithm. Thus, we propose a stochastic search algorithm that is driven by a Markov chain that is a mixture of two Metropolis–Hastings algorithms—one that makes small scale changes to individual objects and another that performs large scale moves involving entire clusters. The methodology proposed is fundamentally different from the well-known finite mixture model approach to clustering, which does not explicitly include the partition as a parameter, and involves an independent and identically distributed structure.

    

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5. An algorithm for distributed Bayesian inference

   https://doi.org/10.1002/sta4.432  

   Shyamalkumar, Nariankadu D. ; Srivastava, Sanvesh ( April 2022 , Stat)

   Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), are routinely used for Bayesian inference; however, these algorithms are prohibitively slow in massive data settings because they require multiple passes through the full data in every iteration. Addressing this problem, we develop a scalable extension of these algorithms using the divide‐and‐conquer (D&C) technique that divides the data into a sufficiently large number of subsets, draws parameters in parallel on the subsets using apoweredlikelihood and produces Monte Carlo draws of the parameter by combining parameter draws obtained from each subset. The combined parameter draws play the role of draws from the original sampling algorithm. Our main contributions are twofold. First, we demonstrate through diverse simulated and real data analyses focusing on generalized linear models (GLMs) that our distributed algorithm delivers comparable results as the current state‐of‐the‐art D&C algorithms in terms of statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. Second, providing theoretical support for our empirical observations, we identify regularity assumptions under which the proposed algorithm leads to asymptotically optimal inference. We also provide illustrative examples focusing on normal linear and logistic regressions where parts of our D&C algorithm are analytically tractable.

    

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