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1. Record-Keeping and Cooperation in Large Societies

   https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab016  

   Clark, Daniel ; Fudenberg, Drew ; Wolitzky, Alexander ( March 2021 , The Review of Economic Studies)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract We introduce a new model of repeated games in large populations with random matching, overlapping generations, and limited records of past play. We prove that steady-state equilibria exist under general conditions on records. When the updating of a player’s record can depend on the actions of both players in a match, any strictly individually rational action can be supported in a steady-state equilibrium. When record updates can depend only on a player’s own actions, fewer actions can be supported. Here, we focus on the prisoner’s dilemma and restrict attention to strict equilibria that are coordination-proof, meaning that matched partners never play a Pareto-dominated Nash equilibrium in the one-shot game induced by their records and expected continuation payoffs. Such equilibria can support full cooperation if the stage game is either “strictly supermodular and mild” or “strongly supermodular,” and otherwise permit no cooperation at all. The presence of “supercooperator” records, where a player cooperates against any opponent, is crucial for supporting any cooperation when the stage game is “severe.” 

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2. Learning to infer structures of network games

   Rossi, Emanuele ; Monti, Federico ; Leng, Yan ; Bronstein Michael ; Dong, Xiaowen ( January 2022 , International Conference on Machine Learning)

   Strategic interactions between a group of individuals or organisations can be modelled as games played on networks, where a player’s payoff depends not only on their actions but also on those of their neighbours. Inferring the network structure from observed game outcomes (equilibrium actions) is an important problem with numerous potential applications in economics and social sciences. Existing methods mostly require the knowledge of the utility function associated with the game, which is often unrealistic to obtain in real-world scenarios. We adopt a transformer-like architecture which correctly accounts for the symmetries of the problem and learns a mapping from the equilibrium actions to the network structure of the game without explicit knowledge of the utility function. We test our method on three different types of network games using both synthetic and real-world data, and demonstrate its effectiveness in network structure inference and superior performance over existing methods. 

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3. Domain Knowledge and Adaptive Serious Games: Exploring the Relationship of Learner Ability and Affect Adaptability

   https://doi.org/10.1177/07356331211031287  

   Verma, Vipin ; Craig, Scotty D. ; Levy, Roy ; Bansal, Ajay ; Amresh, Ashish ( April 2022 , Journal of Educational Computing Research)

   Detection and responding to a player’s affect are important for serious games. A method for this purpose was tested within Chem-o-crypt, a game that teaches chemical equation balancing. The game automatically detects boredom, flow, and frustration using the Affdex SDK from Affectiva. The sensed affective state is then used to adapt the game play in an attempt to engage the player in the game. A randomized controlled experiment incorporating a Dynamic Bayesian Network that compared results from groups with the affect-sensitive states vs those without revealed that measuring affect and adapting the game improved learning for low domain-knowledge participants. 

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4. Academical: A Dynamic Interactive Narrative Game for Responsible Conduct of Research Training

   https://doi.org/10.1109/CoG60054.2024.10645569  

   Johnson-Bey, Shi ; Shields, Samuel ; Wardrip-Fruin, Noah ; Melcer, Edward ( August 2024 , IEEE)

   Our demo showcases a choice-based interactive narrative game created to teach responsible conduct of research and research ethics. It re-imagines the experience of a game previously published in the literature, using a content-selection system that dynamically constructs dialogue choices during play. Our goal is to provide players with more opportunities to experience agency than they would have with the original game’s hand-authored branching narrative structure. Primarily, our system implements a conversation thread-switching mechanic that allows players to fluidly enter/exit conversation topics as one would in a real-life conversation. 

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5. Improved Retention Analysis in Freemium Role-Playing games by Jointly Modelling Players’ Motivation, Progression and Churn

   https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12730  

   Karmakar, Bikram ; Liu, Peng ; Mukherjee, Gourab ; Che, Hai ; Dutta, Shantanu ( August 2021 , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society)

   We consider user retention analytics for online freemium role-playing games (RPGs). RPGs constitute a very popular genre of computer-based games that, along with a player’s gaming actions, focus on the development of the player’s in-game virtual character through a persistent exploration of the gaming environment. Most RPGs follow the freemium business model in which the gamers can play for free but they are charged for premium add-on amenities. As with other freemium products, RPGs suffer from the curse of high dropout rates. This makes retention analysis extremely important for successful operation and survival of their gaming portals. Here, we develop a disciplined statistical framework for retention analysis by modelling multiple in-game player characteristics along with the dropout probabilities. We capture players’ motivations through engagement times, collaboration and achievement score at each level of the game, and jointly model them using a generalized linear mixed model (glmm) framework that further includes a time-to-event variable corresponding to churn. We capture the interdependencies in a player’s level-wise engagement, collaboration, achievement with dropout through a shared parameter model. We illustrate interesting changes in player behaviours as the gaming level progresses. The parameters in our joint model were estimated by a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm which incorporated a divide-and-recombine approach for increased scalability in glmm estimation that was needed to accommodate our large longitudinal gaming data-set. By incorporating the level-wise changes in a player’s motivations and using them for dropout rate prediction, our method greatly improves on state-of-the-art retention models. Based on data from a popular action based RPG, we demonstrate the competitive optimality of our proposed joint modelling approach by exhibiting its improved predictive performance over competitors. In particular, we outperform aggregate statistics based methods that ignore level-wise progressions as well as progression tracking non-joint model such as the Cox proportional hazards model. We also display improved predictions of popular marketing retention statistics and discuss how they can be used in managerial decision making.

    

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