More Like this

1. Reasoning about Uncertainties in Discrete-Time Dynamical Systems using Polynomial Forms

   Sankaranarayanan, Sriram ; Chou, Yi ; Goubault, Eric ; and Putot, Sylvie ( December 2020 , Advances in Neural Information Processing System (NeurIPS))

   In this paper, we propose polynomial forms to represent distributions of state variables over time for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems. This problem arises in a variety of applications in areas ranging from biology to robotics. Our approach allows us to rigorously represent the probability distribution of state variables over time, and provide guaranteed bounds on the expectations, moments and probabilities of tail events involving the state variables. First we recall ideas from interval arithmetic, and use them to rigorously represent the state variables at time t as a function of the initial state variables and noise symbols that model the random exogenous inputs encountered before time t. Next we show how concentration of measure inequalities can be employed to prove rigorous bounds on the tail probabilities of these state variables. We demonstrate interesting applications that demonstrate how our approach can be useful in some situations to establish mathematically guaranteed bounds that are of a different nature from those obtained through simulations with pseudo-random numbers.
2. A framework for machine learning of model error in dynamical systems

   https://doi.org/10.1090/cams/10  

   Levine, Matthew ; Stuart, Andrew ( October 2022 , Communications of the American Mathematical Society)

   The development of data-informed predictive models for dynamical systems is of widespread interest in many disciplines. We present a unifying framework for blending mechanistic and machine-learning approaches to identify dynamical systems from noisily and partially observed data. We compare pure data-driven learning with hybrid models which incorporate imperfect domain knowledge, referring to the discrepancy between an assumed truth model and the imperfect mechanistic model as model error. Our formulation is agnostic to the chosen machine learning model, is presented in both continuous- and discrete-time settings, and is compatible both with model errors that exhibit substantial memory and errors that are memoryless. First, we study memoryless linear (w.r.t. parametric-dependence) model error from a learning theory perspective, defining excess risk and generalization error. For ergodic continuous-time systems, we prove that both excess risk and generalization error are bounded above by terms that diminish with the square-root of T T , the time-interval over which training data is specified. Secondly, we study scenarios that benefit from modeling with memory, proving universal approximation theorems for two classes of continuous-time recurrent neural networks (RNNs): both can learn memory-dependent model error, assuming that it is governed by a finite-dimensional hidden variable and that, together, the observedmore »and hidden variables form a continuous-time Markovian system. In addition, we connect one class of RNNs to reservoir computing, thereby relating learning of memory-dependent error to recent work on supervised learning between Banach spaces using random features. Numerical results are presented (Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 Multiscale systems) to compare purely data-driven and hybrid approaches, finding hybrid methods less datahungry and more parametrically efficient. We also find that, while a continuous-time framing allows for robustness to irregular sampling and desirable domain- interpretability, a discrete-time framing can provide similar or better predictive performance, especially when data are undersampled and the vector field defining the true dynamics cannot be identified. Finally, we demonstrate numerically how data assimilation can be leveraged to learn hidden dynamics from noisy, partially-observed data, and illustrate challenges in representing memory by this approach, and in the training of such models.« less
3. Dynamic Assortment Optimization for Reusable Products with Random Usage Durations

   https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3346  

   Rusmevichientong, Paat ; Sumida, Mika ; Topaloglu, Huseyin ( July 2020 , Management science)

   We consider dynamic assortment problems with reusable products, in which each arriving customer chooses a product within an offered assortment, uses the product for a random duration of time, and returns the product back to the firm to be used by other customers. The goal is to find a policy for deciding on the assortment to offer to each customer so that the total expected revenue over a finite selling horizon is maximized. The dynamic-programming formulation of this problem requires a high-dimensional state variable that keeps track of the on-hand product inventories, as well as the products that are currently in use. We present a tractable approach to compute a policy that is guaranteed to obtain at least 50% of the optimal total expected revenue. This policy is based on constructing linear approximations to the optimal value functions. When the usage duration is infinite or follows a negative binomial distribution, we also show how to efficiently perform rollout on a simple static policy. Performing rollout corresponds to using separable and nonlinear value function approximations. The resulting policy is also guaranteed to obtain at least 50% of the optimal total expected revenue. The special case of our model with infinite usagemore »durations captures the case where the customers purchase the products outright without returning them at all. Under infinite usage durations, we give a variant of our rollout approach whose total expected revenue differs from the optimal by a factor that approaches 1 with rate cubic-root of Cmin, where Cmin is the smallest inventory of a product. We provide computational experiments based on simulated data for dynamic assortment management, as well as real parking transaction data for the city of Seattle. Our computational experiments demonstrate that the practical performance of our policies is substantially better than their performance guarantees and that performing rollout yields noticeable improvements.« less
4. Reachability Analysis Using Message Passing over Tree Decompositions

   Sankaranarayanan, Sriram ( July 2020 , International Conference on Computer Aided Verification)

   In this paper, we study efficient approaches to reachability analysis for discrete-time nonlinear dynamical systems when the dependencies among the variables of the system have low treewidth. Reachability analysis over nonlinear dynamical systems asks if a given set of target states can be reached, starting from an initial set of states. This is solved by computing conservative over approximations of the reachable set using abstract domains to represent these approximations. However, most approaches must tradeoff the level of conservatism against the cost of performing analysis, especially when the number of system variables increases. This makes reachability analysis challenging for nonlinear systems with a large number of state variables. Our approach works by constructing a dependency graph among the variables of the system. The tree decomposition of this graph builds a tree wherein each node of the tree is labeled with subsets of the state variables of the system. Furthermore, the tree decomposition satisfies important structural properties. Using the tree decomposition, our approach abstracts a set of states of the high dimensional system into a tree of sets of lower dimensional projections of this state. We derive various properties of this abstract domain, including conditions under which the original high dimensionalmore »set can be fully recovered from its low dimensional projections. Next, we use ideas from message passing developed originally for belief propagation over Bayesian networks to perform reachability analysis over the full state space in an efficient manner. We illustrate our approach on some interesting nonlinear systems with low treewidth to demonstrate the advantages of our approach.« less
5. Reachability Analysis Using Message Passing over Tree Decompositions.

   https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53288-8_30  

   Sankaranarayanan, Sriram ( July 2020 , Computer Aided Verification. CAV 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 12224)

   In this paper, we study efficient approaches to reachability analysis for discrete-time nonlinear dynamical systems when the dependencies among the variables of the system have low treewidth. Reachability analysis over nonlinear dynamical systems asks if a given set of target states can be reached, starting from an initial set of states. This is solved by computing conservative over approximations of the reachable set using abstract domains to represent these approximations. However, most approaches must tradeoff the level of conservatism against the cost of performing analysis, especially when the number of system variables increases. This makes reachability analysis challenging for nonlinear systems with a large number of state variables. Our approach works by constructing a dependency graph among the variables of the system. The tree decomposition of this graph builds a tree wherein each node of the tree is labeled with subsets of the state variables of the system. Furthermore, the tree decomposition satisfies important structural properties. Using the tree decomposition, our approach abstracts a set of states of the high dimensional system into a tree of sets of lower dimensional projections of this state. We derive various properties of this abstract domain, including conditions under which the original high dimensionalmore »set can be fully recovered from its low dimensional projections. Next, we use ideas from message passing developed originally for belief propagation over Bayesian networks to perform reachability analysis over the full state space in an efficient manner. We illustrate our approach on some interesting nonlinear systems with low treewidth to demonstrate the advantages of our approach.« less