skip to main content


Title: Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet
Abstract The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1947282
NSF-PAR ID:
10233249
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Volume:
33
Issue:
13
ISSN:
0894-8755
Page Range / eLocation ID:
5445 to 5463
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is used to study the variability of Earth’s atmospheric circulation during the past 45 years, a time of considerable climate change. Using global AAM, two interdecadal states are defined covering the periods 1977–98 (hereinafter P1) and 1999–2022 (P2). Global AAM decreased from P1 to P2 and was accompanied by weakened subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres, strong convection around the northern Maritime Continent, and a strengthened sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The period differences project onto 1) internal interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV), 2) a postulated transient ocean thermostat response to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, and 3) circulation anomalies related to the ozone hole. During 1977–2023, the first two processes are forcing the climate toward larger Pacific Ocean SST gradients and a poleward expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), especially into the Northern Hemisphere. The ozone hole produces its own distinct pattern of anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere that tend to become persistent in the early 1990s. The zonal and vertical mean AAM variations during P1 have frequent westerly wind anomalies between 40°N and 40°S with poleward propagation on interannual time scales. During P2, the circulation is dominated by subtropical easterly wind anomalies, poleward-shifted jets, and weaker propagation. Locally, the zonal mean anomalies manifest as midlatitude ridges that lead to continental droughts. Case studies illustrate the weakened subtropical jet streams of P2 and examine the factors behind a transition to La Niña in early 2020 that maintains the P2 pattern.

     
    more » « less
  2. null (Ed.)
    Abstract In the past 40 years, the global annual mean surface temperature has experienced a nonuniform warming, differing from the spatially uniform warming simulated by the forced responses of large multimodel ensembles to anthropogenic forcing. Rather, it exhibits significant asymmetry between the Arctic and Antarctic, with intermittent and spatially varying warming trends along the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and a slight cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific. In particular, this “wavy” pattern of temperature changes over the NH midlatitudes features strong cooling over Eurasia in boreal winter. Here, we show that these nonuniform features of surface temperature changes are likely tied together by tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), via a global atmospheric teleconnection. Using six reanalyses, we find that this teleconnection can be consistently obtained as a leading circulation mode in the past century. This tropically driven teleconnection is associated with a Pacific SST pattern resembling the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and hereafter referred to as the IPO-related bipolar teleconnection (IPO-BT). Further, two paleo-reanalysis reconstruction datasets show that the IPO-BT is a robust recurrent mode over the past 400 and 2000 years. The IPO-BT mode may thus serve as an important internal mode that regulates high-latitude climate variability on multidecadal time scales, favoring a warming (cooling) episode in the Arctic accompanied by cooling (warming) over Eurasia and the Southern Ocean (SO). Thus, the spatial nonuniformity of recent surface temperature trends may be partially explained by the enhanced appearance of the IPO-BT mode by a transition of the IPO toward a cooling phase in the eastern Pacific in the past decades. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    On decadal time scales, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit coherent basin‐wide changes, but their origins are not well understood. Here we analyze observations and model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and Community Earth System Model Version 1 to quantify the roles of external forcing and internal climate variability in causing Indian Ocean decadal SST variations. Results show that both external forcing and internal variability since 1920 have contributed to the observed decadal variations in linearly detrended Indian Ocean SSTs, and they exhibit an out‐of‐phase relationship since the 1950s. The internally‐generated variations arise from remote influences from the tropical Pacific and possible contributions from internal local processes, while the influence from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is opposite to that of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Decadal SST changes caused by nonlinear variations in greenhouse gases and aerosols are roughly out‐of‐phase with the internal variability, thus dampening observed SST variations since the 1950s.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    The atmospheric river (AR) frequency trends over the Southern Hemisphere are investigated using three reanalyses and two Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensembles. The results show that AR frequency has been increasing over the Southern Ocean and decreasing over lower latitudes in the past four decades and that ARs have been shifting poleward. While the observed trends are mostly driven by the poleward shift of the westerly jet, fully coupled CESM experiments indicate anthropogenic forcing would result in positive AR frequency trends over the Southern Ocean due mostly to moisture changes. The difference between the observed trends and anthropogenically driven trends can be largely reconciled by the atmosphere‐only CESM simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures: Sea surface temperature variability characteristic of the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation strongly suppresses the moisture‐driven trends while enhances the circulation‐induced trends over the Southern Ocean, thus bringing the simulated trends into closer agreement with the observed trends.

     
    more » « less
  5. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Many previous studies have shown that an Indian Ocean basin warming (IOBW) occurs usually during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying spring to summer seasons through modifying the equatorial zonal circulation. Decadal modulation associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) is further investigated here to understand the nonstationary ENSO–IOBW relationship during ENSO decaying summer (July–September). During the positive IPO phase, significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean in El Niño decaying summers and vice versa for La Niña events, while these patterns are not well detected in the negative IPO phase. Different decaying speeds of ENSO associated with the IPO phase, largely controlled by both zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks, are suggested to be mainly responsible for these different ENSO–IOBW relationships. In contrast to ENSO events in the negative IPO phase, the ones in the positive IPO phase display a slower decaying speed and delay their transitions both from a warm to a cold state and a cold to a warm state. The slower decay of El Niño and La Niña thereby helps to sustain the teleconnection forcing over the equatorial Indian Ocean and corresponding SST anomalies there can persist into summer. This IPO modulation of the ENSO–IOBW relationship carries important implications for the seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies and associated summer climate anomalies. 
    more » « less