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1. How much inundation occurs in the Amazon River basin?

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113099  

   Ayan Santos Fleischmann, Fabrice Papa ( January 2022 , Remote sensing of environment)

   The Amazon River basin harbors some of the world’s largest wetland complexes, which are of major importance for biodiversity, the water cycle and climate, and human activities. Accurate estimates of inundation extent and its variations across spatial and temporal scales are therefore fundamental to understand and manage the basin’s resources. More than fifty inundation estimates have been generated for this region, yet major differences exist among the datasets, and a comprehensive assessment of them is lacking. Here we present an intercomparison of 29 inundation datasets for the Amazon basin, based on remote sensing only, hydrological modeling, or multi-source datasets, with 18 covering the lowland Amazon basin (elevation < 500 m, which includes most Amazon wetlands), and 11 covering individual wetland complexes (subregional datasets). Spatial resolutions range from 12.5 m to 25 km, and temporal resolution from static to monthly, spanning up to a few decades. Overall, 31% of the lowland basin is estimated as subject to inundation by at least one dataset. The long-term maximum inundated area across the lowland basin is estimated at 599,700 ± 81,800 km² if considering the three higher quality SAR-based datasets, and 490,300 ± 204,800 km² if considering all 18 datasets. However, even the highestmore »resolution SAR-based dataset underestimates the maximum values for individual wetland complexes, suggesting a basin-scale underestimation of ~10%. The minimum inundation extent shows greater disagreements among datasets than the maximum extent: 139,300 ± 127,800 km² for SAR-based ones and 112,392 ± 79,300 km² for all datasets. Discrepancies arise from differences among sensors, time periods, dates of acquisition, spatial resolution, and data processing algorithms. The median total area subject to inundation in medium to large river floodplains (drainage area > 1,000 km²) is 323,700 km². The highest spatial agreement is observed for floodplains dominated by open water such as along the lower Amazon River, whereas intermediate agreement is found along major vegetated floodplains fringing larger rivers (e.g., Amazon mainstem floodplain). Especially large disagreements exist among estimates for interfluvial wetlands (Llanos de Moxos, Pacaya-Samiria, Negro, Roraima), where inundation tends to be shallower and more variable in time. Our data intercomparison helps identify the current major knowledge gaps regarding inundation mapping in the Amazon and their implications for multiple applications. In the context of forthcoming hydrology-oriented satellite missions, we make recommendations for future developments of inundation estimates in the Amazon and present a WebGIS application (https://amazon-inundation.herokuapp.com/) we developed to provide user-friendly visualization and data acquisition of current Amazon inundation datasets.« less
2. Agricultural Water Governance in the Desert: Shifting Risks in Central Arizona

   York, Abigail M ; Eakin, Hallie ; Bausch, Julia C ; Smith-Heisters, Skaidra ; Anderies, John M ; Aggarwal, Rimjhim ; Leonard, Bryan ; Wright, Katherine ( June 2020 , Water alternatives)

   In Arizona, the policy debates over the Colorado River Basin Drought Contingency Plans exposed long-running tensions surrounding how we use and value scarce water resources in a desert. These negotiations also highlighted generations-old disputes between indigenous communities’ water rights and Anglo settlers. This paper explores how irrigators respond to, and participate in, the crafting of institutional arrangements while at the same time experiencing increased exposure to climatic and hydrological risk. Our analysis incorporates qualitative interview data, a literature review, archival information from policy reports, and secondary data on water use and agricultural production. Building on the fieldwork with farmers and water experts that we completed before the drought contingency planning efforts began, we describe the status quo and then explore potential future contexts based on shifting incentives and on the constraints that arise during periods of Colorado River water shortages. Through an understanding of the socio-hydrological system, we examine the region’s agricultural water use, water governance, indigenous water rights and co-governance, and the potential future of agriculture in the region. Our study illustrates how the historic and current institutions have been maintaining agricultural vibrancy but also creating new risks associated with increased dependence on the Colorado River.
3. Investigating the Role of Snow Water Equivalent on Streamflow Predictability during Drought

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0229.1  

   Modi, Parthkumar A. ; Small, Eric E. ; Kasprzyk, Joseph ; Livneh, Ben ( October 2022 , Journal of Hydrometeorology)

   Snowpack provides the majority of predictive information for water supply forecasts (WSFs) in snow-dominated basins across the western United States. Drought conditions typically accompany decreased snowpack and lowered runoff efficiency, negatively impacting WSFs. Here, we investigate the relationship between snow water equivalent (SWE) and April–July streamflow volume (AMJJ-V) during drought in small headwater catchments, using observations from 31 USGS streamflow gauges and 54 SNOTEL stations. A linear regression approach is used to evaluate forecast skill under different historical climatologies used for model fitting, as well as with different forecast dates. Experiments are constructed in which extreme hydrological drought years are withheld from model training, that is, years with AMJJ-V below the 15th percentile. Subsets of the remaining years are used for model fitting to understand how the climatology of different training subsets impacts forecasts of extreme drought years. We generally report overprediction in drought years. However, training the forecast model on drier years, that is, below-median years (P₁₅,P_57.5], minimizes residuals by an average of 10% in drought year forecasts, relative to a baseline case, with the highest median skill obtained in mid- to late April for colder regions. We report similar findings using a modified National Resources Conservation Servicemore »(NRCS) procedure in nine large Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) basins, highlighting the importance of the snowpack–streamflow relationship in streamflow predictability. We propose an “adaptive sampling” approach of dynamically selecting training years based on antecedent SWE conditions, showing error reductions of up to 20% in historical drought years relative to the period of record. These alternate training protocols provide opportunities for addressing the challenges of future drought risk to water supply planning.

   Seasonal water supply forecasts based on the relationship between peak snowpack and water supply exhibit unique errors in drought years due to low snow and streamflow variability, presenting a major challenge for water supply prediction. Here, we assess the reliability of snow-based streamflow predictability in drought years using a fixed forecast date or fixed model training period. We critically evaluate different training protocols that evaluate predictive performance and identify sources of error during historical drought years. We also propose and test an “adaptive sampling” application that dynamically selects training years based on antecedent SWE conditions providing to overcome persistent errors and provide new insights and strategies for snow-guided forecasts.

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4. Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Automated Characterization of Arctic Ice-Wedge Polygons in Very High Spatial Resolution Aerial Imagery

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091487  

   Zhang, Weixing ; Witharana, Chandi ; Liljedahl, Anna ; Kanevskiy, Mikhail ( September 2018 , Remote Sensing)

   The microtopography associated with ice-wedge polygons governs many aspects of Arctic ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrologic dynamics from local to regional scales owing to the linkages between microtopography and the flow and storage of water, vegetation succession, and permafrost dynamics. Wide-spread ice-wedge degradation is transforming low-centered polygons into high-centered polygons at an alarming rate. Accurate data on spatial distribution of ice-wedge polygons at a pan-Arctic scale are not yet available, despite the availability of sub-meter-scale remote sensing imagery. This is because the necessary spatial detail quickly produces data volumes that hamper both manual and semi-automated mapping approaches across large geographical extents. Accordingly, transforming big imagery into ‘science-ready’ insightful analytics demands novel image-to-assessment pipelines that are fueled by advanced machine learning techniques and high-performance computational resources. In this exploratory study, we tasked a deep-learning driven object instance segmentation method (i.e., the Mask R-CNN) with delineating and classifying ice-wedge polygons in very high spatial resolution aerial orthoimagery. We conducted a systematic experiment to gauge the performances and interoperability of the Mask R-CNN across spatial resolutions (0.15 m to 1 m) and image scene contents (a total of 134 km2) near Nuiqsut, Northern Alaska. The trained Mask R-CNN reported mean average precisions of 0.70more »and 0.60 at thresholds of 0.50 and 0.75, respectively. Manual validations showed that approximately 95% of individual ice-wedge polygons were correctly delineated and classified, with an overall classification accuracy of 79%. Our findings show that the Mask R-CNN is a robust method to automatically identify ice-wedge polygons from fine-resolution optical imagery. Overall, this automated imagery-enabled intense mapping approach can provide a foundational framework that may propel future pan-Arctic studies of permafrost thaw, tundra landscape evolution, and the role of high latitudes in the global climate system.« less
5. ML-Based Streamflow Prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Climate Variables Time Series Data

   https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10020029  

   Hosseinzadeh, Pouya ; Nassar, Ayman ; Boubrahimi, Soukaina Filali ; Hamdi, Shah Muhammad ( February 2023 , Hydrology)

   Streamflow prediction plays a vital role in water resources planning in order to understand the dramatic change of climatic and hydrologic variables over different time scales. In this study, we used machine learning (ML)-based prediction models, including Random Forest Regression (RFR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Seasonal Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and Facebook Prophet (PROPHET) to predict 24 months ahead of natural streamflow at the Lees Ferry site located at the bottom part of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) of the US. Firstly, we used only historic streamflow data to predict 24 months ahead. Secondly, we considered meteorological components such as temperature and precipitation as additional features. We tested the models on a monthly test dataset spanning 6 years, where 24-month predictions were repeated 50 times to ensure the consistency of the results. Moreover, we performed a sensitivity analysis to identify our best-performing model. Later, we analyzed the effects of considering different span window sizes on the quality of predictions made by our best model. Finally, we applied our best-performing model, RFR, on two more rivers in different states in the UCRB to test the model’s generalizability. We evaluated the performance of the predictive models using multiple evaluationmore »measures. The predictions in multivariate time-series models were found to be more accurate, with RMSE less than 0.84 mm per month, R-squared more than 0.8, and MAPE less than 0.25. Therefore, we conclude that the temperature and precipitation of the UCRB increases the accuracy of the predictions. Ultimately, we found that multivariate RFR performs the best among four models and is generalizable to other rivers in the UCRB.« less