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1. A Decade of Time Series Sampling Reveals Thermal Variation and Shifts in Pseudo-nitzschia Species Composition That Contribute to Harmful Algal Blooms in an Eastern US Estuary

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.889840  

   Roche, Katherine M.; Sterling, Alexa R.; Rynearson, Tatiana A.; Bertin, Matthew J.; Jenkins, Bethany D. (July 2022, Frontiers in Marine Science)

   Mulholland, Margaret R (Ed.)

   In 2016-17, shellfish harvesting closed for the first time in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, from domoic acid (DA), a neurotoxin produced by diatoms of the Pseudo-nitzschia genus. Pseudo-nitzschia have occurred frequently for over 60 years in Narragansett Bay’s Long-Term Plankton Time Series (NBPTS), therefore it is surprising that the first closure only recently occurred. Pseudo-nitzschia species are known to vary in their toxin production, thus species identification is critical for understanding the underlying ecological causes of these harmful algal blooms (HABs). DNA in plankton biomass can be preserved for many years, so molecular barcoding of archived samples is useful for delineation of taxa over time. This study used amplification of the Pseudo-nitzschia -specific 18S-5.8S rDNA internal transcribed spacer region 1 (ITS1) in plankton samples and high throughput sequencing to characterize Pseudo-nitzschia species composition over a decade in Narragansett Bay, including eight years before the 2016-17 closures and two years following. This metabarcoding method can discriminate nearly all known Pseudo-nitzschia species. Several species recur as year-round residents in Narragansett Bay ( P. pungens var. pungens, P. americana, P. multiseries , and P. calliantha ). Various other species increased in frequency after 2015, and some appeared for the first time during the closure period. Notably, P. australis , a species prevalent in US West Coast HABs and known for high DA production, was not observed in Narragansett Bay until the 2017 closure but has been present in several years after the closures. Annual differences in Pseudo-nitzschia composition were correlated with physical and chemical conditions, predominantly water temperature. The long-term composition trends of Pseudo-nitzschia in Narragansett Bay serve as a baseline for identifying the introduction of new species, understanding shifting assemblages that contributed to the 2016-17 closures, and monitoring species that may be cause for future concern. 

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2. Connectivity of toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblages between the Northeast U.S. continental shelf and an adjacent estuary

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2024.102738  

   Roche, Katherine M; Church, Isabella N; Sterling, Alexa R; Rynearson, Tatiana A; Bertin, Matthew J; Kim, Andrew M; Kirk, Riley D; Jenkins, Bethany D (November 2024, Harmful Algae)

   Gobler, Christopher (Ed.)

   Pseudo-nitzschia harmful algal blooms have recently caused elevated domoic acid in coastal environments of the Northeast United States. In 2017, the toxigenic species P. australis was observed in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, a temperate estuarine ecosystem, for the first time since 2009 when DNA monitoring for Pseudo-nitzschia species began. This highly toxic species likely contributed to toxin-related shellfish harvest closures and is hypothesized to have been introduced by an offshore source. Little is known about offshore Pseudo-nitzschia spp. populations in the Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem or how often toxigenic species enter Narragansett Bay through physical processes. Here, we collected filtered biomass samples from multiple time series sites within Narragansett Bay and along the Northeast U.S. Shelf Long-Term Ecological Research transect in winter and summer to investigate the frequency and seasonality of potential Pseudo-nitzschia spp. inflow from the continental shelf to the estuary. Species were taxonomically identified using DNA sequencing of the ITS1 region and domoic acid concentrations were quantified by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry and multiple reaction monitoring. During six years of sampling, Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblages were more similar between Narragansett Bay and the Northeast shelf in winter than summer, suggesting greater ecosystem connectivity in winter. These winter assemblages were often accompanied by higher domoic acid. Several Pseudo-nitzschia species co-occurred most often with domoic acid and were likely responsible for toxin production in this region, including P. pungens var. pungens, P. multiseries, P. calliantha, P. plurisecta, P. australis, and P. fraudulenta. Domoic acid was detected during periods of relatively low macronutrient concentrations in both seasons, warmer sea surface temperatures in winter, and colder temperatures in summer within this dataset. This study represents some of the first domoic acid measurements on the offshore Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf, a region that supplies water to other coastal environments and could seed future harmful algal blooms. The elevated domoic acid and frequency of hypothesized inflow of toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia spp. from the Northeast continental shelf to Narragansett Bay in winter indicate the need to monitor coastal and offshore environments for toxins and harmful algal bloom taxa during colder months. 

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3. Contextualizing Thermal Effluent Impacts in Narragansett Bay Using Landsat-Derived Surface Temperature

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.705204  

   Benoit, Jonathan; Fox-Kemper, Baylor (September 2021, Frontiers in Marine Science)

   This work utilizes remotely sensed thermal data to understand how the release of thermal pollution from the Brayton Point Power Station (BPPS) affected the temperature behavior of Narragansett Bay. Building upon previous work with Landsat 5, a multi-satellite analysis is conducted that incorporates 582 scenes from Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 over 1984–2021 to explain seasonal variability in effluent impacts, contrast data after the effluent ceased in 2011, identify patterns in temperature before and after effluent ceased using unsupervised learning, and track how recent warming trends compare to the BPPS impact. Stopping the thermal effluent corresponds to an immediate cooling of 0.26 ± 0.1°C in the surface temperature of Mt. Hope Bay with respect to the rest of Narragansett Bay with greater cooling of 0.62 ± 0.2°C found near Brayton Point; though, cooling since the period of maximal impact (1993–2000) totals 0.53 ± 0.2°C in Mt. Hope Bay and 1.04 ± 0.2°C at Brayton Point. During seasons with lower solar radiation (winter) and lower mean river input (autumn and late summer), the BPPS effluent impact is more prominent. The seasonal differences between the high impact and low impact periods indicate that river input played an important role in the heat balance when emissions were lower, but surface fluxes dominated when emissions were higher. Putting the BPPS effluent in context, Landsat data indicates that Narragansett Bay warmed 0.5–1.2°C over the period of measurement at an average rate of 0.23 ± 0.1°C/decade and that net warming in Mt. Hope Bay is near zero. This trend implies that Narragansett Bay has experienced climatic warming over the past four decades on the scale of the temperature anomaly in Mt. Hope Bay caused by the BBPS effluent. 

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4. Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003605  

   Mogen, Samuel C; Lovenduski, Nicole S; Yeager, Stephen; Keppler, Lydia; Sharp, Jonathan; Bograd, Steven J; Quiros, Nathali Cordero; Di_Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hazen, Elliott L; Jacox, Michael G; et al (November 2023, Earth's Future)

   Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long-term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystem stressors on monthly, seasonal, and multi-month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecast skill of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation-based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making. 

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5. Ocean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35499-5  

   Dotto, Tiago S.; Heywood, Karen J.; Hall, Rob A.; Scambos, Ted A.; Zheng, Yixi; Nakayama, Yoshihiro; Hyogo, Shuntaro; Snow, Tasha; Wåhlin, Anna K.; Wild, Christian; et al (December 2022, Nature Communications)

   Abstract West Antarctic ice-shelf thinning is primarily caused by ocean-driven basal melting. Here we assess ocean variability below Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) and reveal the importance of local ocean circulation and sea-ice. Measurements obtained from two sub-ice-shelf moorings, spanning January 2020 to March 2021, show warming of the ice-shelf cavity and an increase in meltwater fraction of the upper sub-ice layer. Combined with ocean modelling results, our observations suggest that meltwater from Pine Island Ice Shelf feeds into the TEIS cavity, adding to horizontal heat transport there. We propose that a weakening of the Pine Island Bay gyre caused by prolonged sea-ice cover from April 2020 to March 2021 allowed meltwater-enriched waters to enter the TEIS cavity, which increased the temperature of the upper layer. Our study highlights the sensitivity of ocean circulation beneath ice shelves to local atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean forcing in neighbouring open oceans. 

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