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ABSTRACT Predator‐prey models, such as the Leslie‐Gower model, are essential for understanding population dynamics and stability within ecosystems. These models help explain the balance between species under natural conditions, but the inclusion of factors like the Allee effect and intraspecific competition adds complexity and realism to these interactions, enhancing our ability to predict system behavior under stress. To detect early indicators of population collapse, this study investigates the intricate dynamics of a modified Leslie‐Gower predator‐prey model with both Allee effect and intraspecific competition. We analyze the existence and stability of equilibria, as well as bifurcation phenomena, including saddle‐node bifurcations of codimension 2, Hopf bifurcations of codimension 2, and Bogdanov‐Takens bifurcations of codimension at least 4. Detailed transitions between bifurcation curves–specifically saddle‐node, Hopf, homoclinic, and limit cycle bifurcations–are also examined. We observe a novel transition phenomenon, where a system jumps from saddle‐node bifurcation to homoclinic and limit cycle bifurcations. This suggests that burst oscillations may serve as an early warning of system collapse rather than simply a tipping point. Our findings indicate that moderate levels of intraspecific competition or Allee effect support coexistence of both populations, while excessive levels may destabilize the entire biological system, leading to collapse. These insights offer valuable implications for ecological management and the early detection of risks in population dynamics.
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Unifying deterministic and stochastic ecological dynamics via a landscape-flux approach
The frequency distributions can characterize the population-potential landscape related to the stability of ecological states. We illustrate the practical utility of this approach by analyzing a forest–savanna model. Savanna and forest states coexist under certain conditions, consistent with past theoretical work and empirical observations. However, a grassland state, unseen in the corresponding deterministic model, emerges as an alternative quasi-stable state under fluctuations, providing a theoretical basis for the appearance of widespread grasslands in some empirical analyses. The ecological dynamics are determined by both the population-potential landscape gradient and the steady-state probability flux. The flux quantifies the net input/output to the ecological system and therefore the degree of nonequilibriumness. Landscape and flux together determine the transitions between stable states characterized by dominant paths and switching rates. The intrinsic potential landscape admits a Lyapunov function, which provides a quantitative measure of global stability. We find that the average flux, entropy production rate, and free energy have significant changes near bifurcations under both finite and zero fluctuation. These may provide both dynamical and thermodynamic origins of the bifurcations. We identified the variances in observed frequency time traces, fluctuations, and time irreversibility as kinematic measures for bifurcations. This framework opens the way to characterize ecological systems globally, to uncover how they change among states, and to quantify the emergence of quasi-stable states under stochastic fluctuations.
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- PAR ID:
- 10249282
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 118
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. e2103779118
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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