Tropical ecosystems are under increasing pressure from land‐use change and deforestation. Changes in tropical forest cover are expected to affect carbon and water cycling with important implications for climatic stability at global scales. A major roadblock for predicting how tropical deforestation affects climate is the lack of baseline conditions (i.e., prior to human disturbance) of forest–savanna dynamics. To address this limitation, we developed a long‐term analysis of forest and savanna distribution across the Amazon–Cerrado transition of central Brazil. We used soil organic carbon isotope ratios as a proxy for changes in woody vegetation cover over time in response to fluctuations in precipitation inferred from speleothem oxygen and strontium stable isotope records. Based on stable isotope signatures and radiocarbon activity of organic matter in soil profiles, we quantified the magnitude and direction of changes in forest and savanna ecosystem cover. Using changes in tree cover measured in 83 different locations for forests and savannas, we developed interpolation maps to assess the coherence of regional changes in vegetation. Our analysis reveals a broad pattern of woody vegetation expansion into savannas and densification within forests and savannas for at least the past ~1,600 years. The rates of vegetation change varied significantly among sampling locations possibly due to variation in local environmental factors that constrain primary productivity. The few instances in which tree cover declined (7.7% of all sampled profiles) were associated with savannas under dry conditions. Our results suggest a regional increase in moisture and expansion of woody vegetation prior to modern deforestation, which could help inform conservation and management efforts for climate change mitigation. We discuss the possible mechanisms driving forest expansion and densification of savannas directly (i.e., increasing precipitation) and indirectly (e.g., decreasing disturbance) and suggest future research directions that have the potential to improve climate and ecosystem models.
The frequency distributions can characterize the population-potential landscape related to the stability of ecological states. We illustrate the practical utility of this approach by analyzing a forest–savanna model. Savanna and forest states coexist under certain conditions, consistent with past theoretical work and empirical observations. However, a grassland state, unseen in the corresponding deterministic model, emerges as an alternative quasi-stable state under fluctuations, providing a theoretical basis for the appearance of widespread grasslands in some empirical analyses. The ecological dynamics are determined by both the population-potential landscape gradient and the steady-state probability flux. The flux quantifies the net input/output to the ecological system and therefore the degree of nonequilibriumness. Landscape and flux together determine the transitions between stable states characterized by dominant paths and switching rates. The intrinsic potential landscape admits a Lyapunov function, which provides a quantitative measure of global stability. We find that the average flux, entropy production rate, and free energy have significant changes near bifurcations under both finite and zero fluctuation. These may provide both dynamical and thermodynamic origins of the bifurcations. We identified the variances in observed frequency time traces, fluctuations, and time irreversibility as kinematic measures for bifurcations. This framework opens the way to characterize ecological systems globally, to uncover how they change among states, and to quantify the emergence of quasi-stable states under stochastic fluctuations.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10249282
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 118
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. e2103779118
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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