skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 10 until 2:00 AM ET on Friday, October 11 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: User-dependent neural sequence models for continuous-time event data
Continuous-time event data are common in applications such as individual behavior data, financial transactions, and medical health records. Modeling such data can be very challenging, in particular for applications with many different types of events, since it requires a model to predict the event types as well as the time of occurrence. Recurrent neural networks that parameterize time-varying intensity functions are the current state-of-the-art for predictive modeling with such data. These models typically assume that all event sequences come from the same data distribution. However, in many applications event sequences are generated by different sources, or users, and their characteristics can be very different. In this paper, we extend the broad class of neural marked point process models to mixtures of latent embeddings, where each mixture component models the characteristic traits of a given user. Our approach relies on augmenting these models with a latent variable that encodes user characteristics, represented by a mixture model over user behavior that is trained via amortized variational inference. We evaluate our methods on four large real-world datasets and demonstrate systematic improvements from our approach over existing work for a variety of predictive metrics such as log-likelihood, next event ranking, and source-of-sequence identification.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2007719 2003237 1928718
NSF-PAR ID:
10272502
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Advances in neural information processing systems
ISSN:
1049-5258
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. User modeling is critical for understanding user intents, while it is also challenging as user intents are so diverse and not directly observable. Most existing works exploit specific types of behavior signals for user modeling, e.g., opinionated data or network structure; but the dependency among different types of user-generated data is neglected. We focus on self-consistence across multiple modalities of user-generated data to model user intents. A probabilistic generative model is developed to integrate two companion learning tasks of opinionated content modeling and social network structure modeling for users. Individual users are modeled as a mixture over the instances of paired learning tasks to realize their behavior heterogeneity, and the tasks are clustered by sharing a global prior distribution to capture the homogeneity among users. Extensive experimental evaluations on large collections of Amazon and Yelp reviews with social network structures confirm the effectiveness of the proposed solution. The learned user models are interpretable and predictive: they enable more accurate sentiment classification and item/friend recommendations than the corresponding baselines that only model a singular type of user behaviors. 
    more » « less
  2. We propose a new time-dependent predictive model of user-item ratings centered around local coherence -- that is, while both users and items are constantly in flux, within a short-term sequence, the neighborhood of a particular user or item is likely to be coherent. Three unique characteristics of the framework are: (i) it incorporates both implicit and explicit feedbacks by extracting the local coherence hidden in the feedback sequences; (ii) it uses parallel recurrent neural networks to capture the evolution of users and items, resulting in a dual factor recommendation model; and (iii) it combines both coherence-enhanced consistent latent factors and dynamic latent factors to balance short-term changes with long-term trends for improved recommendation. Through experiments on Goodreads and Amazon, we find that the proposed model can outperform state-of-the-art models in predicting users' preferences. 
    more » « less
  3. Effective management of social-ecological systems (SESs) requires an understanding of human behavior. In many SESs, there are hundreds of agents or more interacting with governance and regulatory institutions, driving management outcomes through collective behavior. Agents in these systems often display consistent behavioral characteristics over time that can help reduce the dimensionality of SES data by enabling the assignment of types. Typologies of resource-user behavior both enrich our knowledge of user cultures and provide critical information for management. Here, we develop a data-driven framework to identify resource-user typologies in SESs with high-dimensional data. To demonstrate policy applications, we apply the framework to a tightly coupled SES, commercial fishing. We leverage large fisheries-dependent datasets that include mandatory vessel logbooks, observer datasets, and high-resolution geospatial vessel tracking technologies. We first quantify vessel and behavioral characteristics using data that encode fishers’ spatial decisions and behaviors. We then use clustering to classify these characteristics into discrete fishing behavioral types (FBTs), determining that 3 types emerge in our case study. Finally, we investigate how a series of disturbances applied selection pressure on these FBTs, causing the disproportionate loss of one group. Our framework not only provides an efficient and unbiased method for identifying FBTs in near real time, but it can also improve management outcomes by enabling ex ante investigation of the consequences of disturbances such as policy actions. 
    more » « less
  4. We propose a Hierarchical Convolution Neural Network (HCNN) for mitosis event detection in time-lapse phase contrast microscopy. Our method contains two stages: first,we extract candidate spatial-temporal patch sequences in the input image sequences which potentially contain mitosis events. Then,we identify if each patch sequence contains mitosis event or not using a hieratical convolutional neural network. In the experiments,we validate the design of our proposed architecture and evaluate the mitosis event detection performance. Our method achieves 99.1% precision and 97.2% recall in very challenging image sequences of multipolar-shaped C3H10T1/2 mesenchymal stem cells and outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore,the proposed method does not depend on hand-crafted feature design or cell tracking. It can be straightforwardly adapted to event detection of other different cell types. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract High-dimensional categorical data are routinely collected in biomedical and social sciences. It is of great importance to build interpretable parsimonious models that perform dimension reduction and uncover meaningful latent structures from such discrete data. Identifiability is a fundamental requirement for valid modeling and inference in such scenarios, yet is challenging to address when there are complex latent structures. In this article, we propose a class of identifiable multilayer (potentially deep) discrete latent structure models for discrete data, termed Bayesian Pyramids. We establish the identifiability of Bayesian Pyramids by developing novel transparent conditions on the pyramid-shaped deep latent directed graph. The proposed identifiability conditions can ensure Bayesian posterior consistency under suitable priors. As an illustration, we consider the two-latent-layer model and propose a Bayesian shrinkage estimation approach. Simulation results for this model corroborate the identifiability and estimatability of model parameters. Applications of the methodology to DNA nucleotide sequence data uncover useful discrete latent features that are highly predictive of sequence types. The proposed framework provides a recipe for interpretable unsupervised learning of discrete data and can be a useful alternative to popular machine learning methods. 
    more » « less