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Abstract In many scientific fields which rely on statistical inference, simulations are often used to map from theoretical models to experimental data, allowing scientists to test model predictions against experimental results. Experimental data is often reconstructed from indirect measurements causing the aggregate transformation from theoretical models to experimental data to be poorly-described analytically. Instead, numerical simulations are used at great computational cost. We introduce Optimal-Transport-based Unfolding and Simulation (OTUS), a fast simulator based on unsupervised machine-learning that is capable of predicting experimental data from theoretical models. Without the aid of current simulation information, OTUS trains a probabilistic autoencoder to transform directly between theoretical models and experimental data. Identifying the probabilistic autoencoder’s latent space with the space of theoretical models causes the decoder network to become a fast, predictive simulator with the potential to replace current, computationally-costly simulators. Here, we provide proof-of-principle results on two particle physics examples, Z -boson and top-quark decays, but stress that OTUS can be widely applied to other fields. 

Predictive models of thermodynamic properties of mixtures are paramount in chemical engineering and chemistry. Classical thermodynamic models are successful in generalizing over (continuous) conditions like temperature and concentration. On the other hand, matrix completion methods (MCMs) from machine learning successfully generalize over (discrete) binary systems; these MCMs can make predictions without any data for a given binary system by implicitly learning commonalities across systems. In the present work, we combine the strengths from both worlds in a hybrid approach. The underlying idea is to predict the pair-interaction energies , as they are used in basically all physical models of liquid mixtures, by an MCM. As an example, we embed an MCM into UNIQUAC, a widely-used physical model for the Gibbs excess energy. We train the resulting hybrid model in a Bayesian machine-learning framework on experimental data for activity coefficients in binary systems of 1146 components from the Dortmund Data Bank. We thereby obtain, for the first time, a complete set of UNIQUAC parameters for all binary systems of these components, which allows us to predict, in principle, activity coefficients at arbitrary temperature and composition for any combination of these components, not only for binary but also for multicomponent systems. The hybrid model even outperforms the best available physical model for predicting activity coefficients, the modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) model. 

Deep probabilistic time series forecasting models have become an integral part of machine learning. While several powerful generative models have been proposed, we provide evidence that their associated inference models are oftentimes too limited and cause the generative model to predict mode-averaged dynamics. Mode-averaging is problematic since many real-world sequences are highly multi-modal, and their averaged dynamics are unphysical (e.g., predicted taxi trajectories might run through buildings on the street map). To better capture multi-modality, we develop variational dynamic mixtures (VDM): a new variational family to infer sequential latent variables. The VDM approximate posterior at each time step is a mixture density network, whose parameters come from propagating multiple samples through a recurrent architecture. This results in an expressive multi-modal posterior approximation. In an empirical study, we show that VDM outperforms competing approaches on highly multi-modal datasets from different domains. 

Conventional variational autoencoders fail in modeling correlations between data points due to their use of factorized priors. Amortized Gaussian process inference through GPVAEs has led to significant improvements in this regard, but is still inhibited by the intrinsic complexity of exact GP inference. We improve the scalability of these methods through principled sparse inference approaches. We propose a new scalable GPVAE model that outperforms existing approaches in terms of runtime and memory footprint, is easy to implement, and allows for joint end-to-end optimization of all components. 

Conventional variational autoencoders fail in modeling correlations between data points due to their use of factorized priors. Amortized Gaussian process inference through GPVAEs has led to significant improvements in this regard, but is still inhibited by the intrinsic complexity of exact GP inference. We improve the scalability of these methods through principled sparse inference approaches. We propose a new scalable GPVAE model that outperforms existing approaches in terms of runtime and memory footprint, is easy to implement, and allows for joint end-to-end optimization of all components 

Data transformations (e.g. rotations, reflections,and cropping) play an important role in self supervised learning. Typically, images are transformed into different views, and neural networks trained on tasks involving these views produce useful feature representations for downstream tasks, including anomaly detection. However, for anomaly detection beyond image data, it is often unclear which transformations to use. Here we present a simple end-to-end procedure for anomaly detection with learnable transformations. The key idea is to embed the transformed data into a semantic space such that the transformed data still resemble their untransformed form, while different transformations are easily distinguishable. Extensive experiments on time series show that our proposed method outperforms existing approaches in the one-vs.-rest setting and is competitive in the more challenging n-vs.-rest anomaly detection task. On medical and cyber-security tabular data, our method learns domain-specific transformations and detects anomalies more accurately than previous work.