An official website of the United States government
Downscaling coarse global and regional climate models allows researchers to access weather and climate data at finer temporal and spatial resolution, but there remains a need to compare these models with empirical data sources to assess model accuracy. Here, we validate a widely used software for generating North American downscaled climate data, ClimateNA, with a novel empirical data source, 20th century weather journals kept by Admiralty Island, Alaska homesteader, Allen Hasselborg. Using Hasselborg’s journals, we calculated monthly precipitation and monthly mean of the maximum daily air temperature across the years 1926 to 1954 and compared these to ClimateNA data generated from the Hasselborg homestead location and adjacent areas. To demonstrate the utility and potential implications of this validation for other disciplines such as hydrology, we used an established regression equation to generate time series of 95% low duration flow estimates for the month of August using mean annual precipitation from ClimateNA predictions and Hasselborg data. Across 279 months, we found strong correlation between modeled and observed measurements of monthly precipitation ( ρ = 0.74) and monthly mean of the maximum daily air temperature ( ρ = 0.98). Monthly precipitation residuals (calculated as ClimateNA data - Hasselborg data) generally demonstrated heteroscedasticity around zero, but a negative trend in residual values starting during the last decade of observations may have been due to a shift to the cold-phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Air temperature residuals demonstrated a consistent but small positive bias, with ClimateNA tending to overestimate air temperature relative to Hasselborg’s journals. The degree of correlation between weather patterns observed at the Hasselborg homestead site and ClimateNA data extracted from spatial grid cells across the region varied by wet and dry climate years. Monthly precipitation from both data sources tended to be more similar across a larger area during wet years (mean ρ across grid cells = 0.73) compared to dry years (mean ρ across grid cells = 0.65). The time series of annual 95% low duration flow estimates for the month of August generated using ClimateNA and Hasselborg data were moderately correlated ( ρ = 0.55). Our analysis supports previous research in other regions which also found ClimateNA to be a robust source for past climate data estimates.
more »
« less
A Constrained Stochastic Weather Generator for Daily Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation
A constrained stochastic weather generator (CSWG) for producing daily mean air temperature and precipitation based on annual mean air temperature and precipitation from tree-ring records is developed and tested in this paper. The principle for stochastically generating daily mean air temperature assumes that temperatures in any year can be approximated by a sinusoidal wave function plus a perturbation from the baseline. The CSWG for stochastically producing daily precipitation is based on three additional assumptions: (1) In each month, the total precipitation can be estimated from annual precipitation if there exists a relationship between the annual and monthly precipitations. If that relationship exists, then (2) for each month, the number of dry days and the maximum daily precipitation can be estimated from the total precipitation in that month. Finally, (3) in each month, there exists a probability distribution of daily precipitation amount for each wet day. These assumptions allow the development of a weather generator that constrains statistically relevant daily temperature and precipitation predictions based on a specified annual value, and thus this study presents a unique method that can be used to explore historic (e.g., archeological questions) or future (e.g., climate change) daily weather conditions based upon specified annual values.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1637171
- PAR ID:
- 10273089
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmosphere
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2073-4433
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 135
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
According to twenty-first century climate-model projections, greenhouse warming will intensify rainfall variability and extremes across the globe. However, verifying this prediction using observations has remained a substantial challenge owing to large natural rainfall fluctuations at regional scales. Here we show that deep learning successfully detects the emerging climate-change signals in daily precipitation fields during the observed record. We trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) with daily precipitation fields and annual global mean surface air temperature data obtained from an ensemble of present-day and future climate-model simulations. After applying the algorithm to the observational record, we found that the daily precipitation data represented an excellent predictor for the observed planetary warming, as they showed a clear deviation from natural variability since the mid-2010s. Furthermore, we analysed the deep-learning model with an explainable framework and observed that the precipitation variability of the weather timescale (period less than 10 days) over the tropical eastern Pacific and mid-latitude storm-track regions was most sensitive to anthropogenic warming. Our results highlight that, although the long-term shifts in annual mean precipitation remain indiscernible from the natural background variability, the impact of global warming on daily hydrological fluctuations has already emerged.more » « less
-
This dataset contains a record of daily mean air temperature for each of the U.S. Great Lakes from January 1, 1897 to October 22, 2023. These temperatures were derived using the following method. Daily maximum and minimum air temperature data were obtained from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCNd, Menne, et al. 2012) and the Great Lakes Air Temperature/Degree Day Climatology, 1897-1983 (Assel et al. 1995). Daily air temperature was calculated by taking a simple average of daily maximum and minimum air temperature. Following Cohn et al. (2021), a total of 24 coastal locations along the Great Lakes were selected. These 24 locations had relatively consistent station data records since the 1890s. Each of the selected locations had multiple weather stations in their proximity covering the historical period from 1890s to 2023, representing the weather conditions around the location. For most of the locations, datasets from multiple stations in the proximity of each location were combined to create a continuous data record from the 1890s to 2023. When doing so, data consistency was verified by comparing the data during the period when station datasets overlap. This procedure resulted in almost continuous timeseries, except for a few locations that still had temporal gaps of one to several days. Any temporal data gap less than 10 days in the combined timeseries were filled based on the linear interpolation. This resulted in completely continuous timeseries for all the locations. Average daily air temperature was calculated from by simply making an average of timeseries data from corresponding locations around each lake. This resulted in daily air temperature records for all five Great Lakes (Lake Superior, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and Lake Ontario).more » « less
-
Abstract. We present a simple method that allows snow depth measurements tobe converted to snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates. These estimates areuseful to individuals interested in water resources, ecological function,and avalanche forecasting. They can also be assimilated into models to helpimprove predictions of total water volumes over large regions. Theconversion of depth to SWE is particularly valuable since snow depthmeasurements are far more numerous than costlier and more complex SWEmeasurements. Our model regresses SWE against snow depth (h), day of wateryear (DOY) and climatological (30-year normal) values for winter (December,January, February) precipitation (PPTWT), and the difference (TD) between meantemperature of the warmest month and mean temperature of the coldest month,producing a power-law relationship. Relying on climatological normals ratherthan weather data for a given year allows our model to be applied atmeasurement sites lacking a weather station. Separate equations are obtainedfor the accumulation and the ablation phases of the snowpack. The model isvalidated against a large database of snow pillow measurements and yields abias in SWE of less than 2 mm and a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) in SWE ofless than 60 mm. The model is additionally validated against two completelyindependent sets of data: one from western North America and one from thenortheastern United States. Finally, the results are compared with three othermodels for bulk density that have varying degrees of complexity and thatwere built in multiple geographic regions. The results show that the modeldescribed in this paper has the best performance for the validation datasets.more » « less
-
Daily summary values of averages of readings of the following parameters are made which are based on data recorded on a Campbell CR10, CR10X, then CR1000 data logger: maximum, minimum, and average air temperature; maximum and minimum relative humidity; total precipitation; average wind speed; maximum wind speed; average wind direction; total incoming solar radiation; average soil temperature at 5cm and 20cm; mean dew temperature. From 1983 - 5 June 1991, readings on which daily averages are based were made at 12 second intervals. From 6 June 1991 to present, readings on which daily averages are based are made at 10 second intervals.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020135
