skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Bayesian inference for gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers in third-generation observatories
Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors will observe thousands of coalescing neutron star binaries with unprecedented fidelity. Extracting the highest precision science from these signals is expected to be challenging owing to both high signal-to-noise ratios and long-duration signals. We demonstrate that current Bayesian inference paradigms can be extended to the analysis of binary neutron star signals without breaking the computational bank. We construct reduced order models for ∼90minute long gravitational-wave signals, covering the observing band (5−2048Hz), speeding up inference by a factor of ∼1.3×10^4 compared to the calculation times without reduced order models. The reduced order models incorporate key physics including the effects of tidal deformability, amplitude modulation due to the Earth's rotation, and spin-induced orbital precession. We show how reduced order modeling can accelerate inference on data containing multiple, overlapping gravitational-wave signals, and determine the speedup as a function of the number of overlapping signals. Thus, we conclude that Bayesian inference is computationally tractable for the long-lived, overlapping, high signal-to-noise-ratio events present in 3G observatories.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1836814
PAR ID:
10279716
Author(s) / Creator(s):
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Physical review letters
ISSN:
1092-0145
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Detecting gravitational waves (GWs) from coalescing compact binaries has become routine with ground-based detectors like Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. However, beyond standard sources such as binary black holes and neutron stars and neutron star black holes, no exotic sources revealing new physics have been discovered. Detecting ultracompact objects, such as subsolar mass (SSM), offers a promising opportunity to explore diverse astrophysical populations. However, searching for these objects using standard matched-filtering techniques is computationally intensive due to the dense parameter space involved. This increasing computational demand not only challenges current search methodologies but also poses a significant obstacle for third-generation (3G) ground-based GW detectors. In the 3G detectors, signals are expected to be observed for tens of minutes and detection rates to reach one per minute. This requires efficient search strategies to manage the computational load of long-duration signal search. In this paper, we demonstrate how hierarchical search strategies can address the computational challenges associated with detecting long-duration signals in current detectors and the 3G era. Using SSM searches as an example, we show that optimizing data sampling rates and adjusting the number of templates in matched filtering at each stage of low-frequency searches can improve the signal-to-noise ratio by 6% and detection volume by 10%–20%. This sensitivity improvement is achieved with a 2.5-fold reduction in computational time compared to standard PyCBC searches. We also discuss how this approach could be adapted and refined for searches involving eccentric and precessing binaries with future detectors. 
    more » « less
  2. Gravitational waves provide a unique tool for observational astronomy. While the first LIGO–Virgo catalogue of gravitational wave transients (GWTC-1) contains 11 signals from black hole and neutron star binaries, the number of observations is increasing rapidly as detector sensitivity improves. To extract information from the observed signals, it is imperative to have fast, flexible, and scalable inference techniques. In a previous paper, we introduced BILBY: a modular and user-friendly Bayesian inference library adapted to address the needs of gravitational-wave inference. In this work, we demonstrate that BILBY produces reliable results for simulated gravitational-wave signals from compact binary mergers, and verify that it accurately reproduces results reported for the 11 GWTC-1 signals. Additionally, we provide configuration and output files for all analyses to allow for easy reproduction, modification, and future use. This work establishes that BILBY is primed and ready to analyse the rapidly growing population of compact binary coalescence gravitational-wave signals. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Gravitational-wave observations of neutron star mergers can probe the nuclear equation of state by measuring the imprint of the neutron star’s tidal deformability on the signal. We investigate the ability of future gravitational-wave observations to produce a precise measurement of the equation of state from binary neutron star inspirals. Because measurability of the tidal effect depends on the equation of state, we explore several equations of state that span current observational constraints. We generate a population of binary neutron stars as seen by a simulated Advanced LIGO–Virgo network, as well as by a planned Cosmic Explorer observatory. We perform Bayesian inference to measure the parameters of each signal, and we combine measurements across each population to determineR1.4, the radius of a 1.4Mneutron star. We find that, with 321 signals, the LIGO–Virgo network is able to measureR1.4to better than 2% precision for all equations of state we consider; however, we also find that achieving this precision could take decades of observation, depending on the equation of state and the merger rate. On the other hand, we find that with one year of observation, Cosmic Explorer will measureR1.4to better than 0.6% precision. In both cases, we find that systematic biases, such as from an incorrect mass prior, can significantly impact measurement accuracy, and efforts will be required to mitigate these effects. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Since the very first detection of gravitational waves from the coalescence of two black holes in 2015, Bayesian statistical methods have been routinely applied by LIGO and Virgo to extract the signal out of noisy interferometric measurements, obtain point estimates of the physical parameters responsible for producing the signal, and rigorously quantify their uncertainties. Different computational techniques have been devised depending on the source of the gravitational radiation and the gravitational waveform model used. Prominent sources of gravitational waves are binary black hole or neutron star mergers, the only objects that have been observed by detectors to date. But also gravitational waves from core‐collapse supernovae, rapidly rotating neutron stars, and the stochastic gravitational‐wave background are in the sensitivity band of the ground‐based interferometers and expected to be observable in future observation runs. As nonlinearities of the complex waveforms and the high‐dimensional parameter spaces preclude analytic evaluation of the posterior distribution, posterior inference for all these sources relies on computer‐intensive simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A review of state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian statistical parameter estimation methods will be given for researchers in this cross‐disciplinary area of gravitational wave data analysis. This article is categorized under:Applications of Computational Statistics > Signal and Image Processing and CodingStatistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis > Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)Statistical Models > Time Series Models 
    more » « less
  5. It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems. 
    more » « less