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1. Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s41114-020-00026-9  

   Abbott, B. P. ; Abbott, R. ; Abbott, T. D. ; Abraham, S. ; Acernese, F. ; Ackley, K. ; Adams, C. ; Adya, V. B. ; Affeldt, C. ; Agathos, M. ; et al ( December 2020 , Living Reviews in Relativity)

   Abstract We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systemsmore »of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of $$10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3$$ 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of $$1^{+12}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 12 ( $$10^{+52}_{-10}$$ 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of $$0^{+19}_{-0}$$ 0 - 0 + 19 ( $$1^{+91}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and $$17^{+22}_{-11}$$ 17 - 11 + 22 ( $$79^{+89}_{-44}$$ 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.« less
2. Search for Lensing Signatures in the Gravitational-Wave Observations from the First Half of LIGO–Virgo’s Third Observing Run

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac23db  

   Abbott, R. ; Abbott, T. D. ; Abraham, S. ; Acernese, F. ; Ackley, K. ; Adams, A. ; Adams, C. ; Adhikari, R. X. ; Adya, V. B. ; Affeldt, C. ; et al ( December 2021 , The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract We search for signatures of gravitational lensing in the gravitational-wave signals from compact binary coalescences detected by Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and Advanced Virgo during O3a, the first half of their third observing run. We study: (1) the expected rate of lensing at current detector sensitivity and the implications of a non-observation of strong lensing or a stochastic gravitational-wave background on the merger-rate density at high redshift; (2) how the interpretation of individual high-mass events would change if they were found to be lensed; (3) the possibility of multiple images due to strong lensing by galaxies ormore »galaxy clusters; and (4) possible wave-optics effects due to point-mass microlenses. Several pairs of signals in the multiple-image analysis show similar parameters and, in this sense, are nominally consistent with the strong lensing hypothesis. However, taking into account population priors, selection effects, and the prior odds against lensing, these events do not provide sufficient evidence for lensing. Overall, we find no compelling evidence for lensing in the observed gravitational-wave signals from any of these analyses.« less
3. Comparing inclination-dependent analyses of kilonova transients

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab221  

   Heinzel, J ; Coughlin, M W ; Dietrich, T ; Bulla, M ; Antier, S ; Christensen, N ; Coulter, D A ; Foley, R J ; Issa, L ; Khetan, N ( February 2021 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT The detection of the optical transient AT2017gfo proved that binary neutron star mergers are progenitors of kilonovae (KNe). Using a combination of numerical-relativity and radiative-transfer simulations, the community has developed sophisticated models for these transients for a wide portion of the expected parameter space. Using these simulations and surrogate models made from them, it has been possible to perform Bayesian inference of the observed signals to infer properties of the ejected matter. It has been pointed out that combining inclination constraints derived from the KN with gravitational-wave measurements increases the accuracy with which binary parameters can be estimated, inmore »particular breaking the distance-inclination degeneracy from gravitational wave inference. To avoid bias from the unknown ejecta geometry, constraints on the inclination angle for AT2017gfo should be insensitive to the employed models. In this work, we compare different assumptions about the ejecta and radiative reprocesses used by the community and we investigate their impact on the parameter inference. While most inferred parameters agree, we find disagreement between posteriors for the inclination angle for different geometries that have been used in the current literature. According to our study, the inclusion of reprocessing of the photons between different ejecta types improves the modeling fits to AT2017gfo and, in some cases, affects the inferred constraints. Our study motivates the inclusion of large ∼ 1-mag uncertainties in the KN models employed for Bayesian analysis to capture yet unknown systematics, especially when inferring inclination angles, although smaller uncertainties seem appropriate to capture model systematics for other intrinsic parameters. We can use this method to impose soft constraints on the ejecta geometry of the KN AT2017gfo.« less
4. Hardware-accelerated Inference for Real-Time Gravitational-Wave Astronomy

   Gunny, Alec ; Rankin, Dylan ; Krupa, Jeffrey ; Saleem, Muhammed ; Nguyen, Tri ( August 2021 , ArXivorg)

   The field of transient astronomy has seen a revolution with the first gravitational-wave detections and the arrival of multi-messenger observations they enabled. Transformed by the first detection of binary black hole and binary neutron star mergers, computational demands in gravitational-wave astronomy are expected to grow by at least a factor of two over the next five years as the global network of kilometer-scale interferometers are brought to design sensitivity. With the increase in detector sensitivity, real-time delivery of gravitational-wave alerts will become increasingly important as an enabler of multi-messenger followup. In this work, we report a novel implementation and deploymentmore »of deep learning inference for real-time gravitational-wave data denoising and astrophysical source identification. This is accomplished using a generic Inference-as-a-Service model that is capable of adapting to the future needs of gravitational-wave data analysis. Our implementation allows seamless incorporation of hardware accelerators and also enables the use of commercial or private (dedicated) as-a-service computing. Based on our results, we propose a paradigm shift in low-latency and offline computing in gravitational-wave astronomy. Such a shift can address key challenges in peak-usage, scalability and reliability, and provide a data analysis platform particularly optimized for deep learning applications. The achieved sub-millisecond scale latency will also be relevant for any machine learning-based real-time control systems that may be invoked in the operation of near-future and next generation ground-based laser interferometers, as well as the front-end collection, distribution and processing of data from such instruments.« less
5. Implications of the search for optical counterparts during the second part of the Advanced LIGO’s and Advanced Virgo’s third observing run: lessons learned for future follow-up observations

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa1925  

   Coughlin, Michael W ; Dietrich, Tim ; Antier, Sarah ; Almualla, Mouza ; Anand, Shreya ; Bulla, Mattia ; Foucart, Francois ; Guessoum, Nidhal ; Hotokezaka, Kenta ; Kumar, Vishwesh ; et al ( September 2020 , Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT Joint multimessenger observations with gravitational waves and electromagnetic (EM) data offer new insights into the astrophysical studies of compact objects. The third Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observing run began on 2019 April 1; during the 11 months of observation, there have been 14 compact binary systems candidates for which at least one component is potentially a neutron star. Although intensive follow-up campaigns involving tens of ground and space-based observatories searched for counterparts, no EM counterpart has been detected. Following on a previous study of the first six months of the campaign, we present in this paper the nextmore »five months of the campaign from 2019 October to 2020 March. We highlight two neutron star–black hole candidates (S191205ah and S200105ae), two binary neutron star candidates (S191213g and S200213t), and a binary merger with a possible neutron star and a ‘MassGap’ component, S200115j. Assuming that the gravitational-wave (GW) candidates are of astrophysical origin and their location was covered by optical telescopes, we derive possible constraints on the matter ejected during the events based on the non-detection of counterparts. We find that the follow-up observations during the second half of the third observing run did not meet the necessary sensitivity to constrain the source properties of the potential GW candidate. Consequently, we suggest that different strategies have to be used to allow a better usage of the available telescope time. We examine different choices for follow-up surveys to optimize sky localization coverage versus observational depth to understand the likelihood of counterpart detection.« less