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Abstract Periodic signatures in time-domain observations of quasars have been used to search for binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs). These searches, across existing time-domain surveys, have produced several hundred candidates. The general stochastic variability of quasars, however, can masquerade as a false-positive periodic signal, especially when monitoring cadence and duration are limited. In this work, we predict the detectability of binary SMBHs in the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We apply computationally inexpensive sinusoidal curve fits to millions of simulated LSST Deep Drilling Field light curves of both single, isolated quasars and binary quasars. The period and phase of simulated binary signals can generally be disentangled from quasar variability. Binary amplitude is overestimated and poorly recovered for two-thirds of potential binaries due to quasar accretion variability. Quasars with strong intrinsic variability can obscure a binary signal too much for recovery. We also find that the most luminous quasars mimic current binary candidate light curves and their properties: The false-positive rates are 60% for these quasars. The reliable recovery of binary period and phase for a wide range of input binary LSST light curves is promising for multi-messenger characterization of binary SMBHs. However, pure electromagnetic detections of binaries using photometric periodicity with amplitude greater than 0.1 mag will result in samples that are overwhelmed by false positives. This paper represents an important and computationally inexpensive way forward for understanding the true and false-positive rates for binary candidates identified by Rubin.
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Discovery of a 300-day Period from the Enshrouded Massive Binary NaSt1 (WR 122), a Product of Binary Interaction
We present optical and infrared (IR) light curves of the enshrouded massive binary NaSt1 (WR 122) with observations from Palomar Gattini-IR (PGIR), the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), the Katzman Automatic Imaging Telescope (KAIT), and the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN). The optical and IR light curves span between 2014 July and 2020 Oct., revealing periodic, sinusoidal variability from NaSt1 with a P=305.2±1.0 d period. We also present historical IR light curves taken between 1983 July and 1989 May that also indicate NaSt1 exhibits long-term IR variability on timescales of ∼decades. Fixed-period sinusoidal fits to the recent optical and IR light curves show that amplitude of NaSt1's variability is different at different wavelengths and also reveal significant phase offsets of ∼18 d between the ZTF r and PGIR J light curves.We interpret the ∼300 d period of the observed variability as the orbital period of a binary system in NaSt1. Assuming a circular orbit and adopting a range of combined stellar mass values in the range 20-100 M⊙ in NaSt1, we estimate orbital separations of ∼2-4 au. We suggest that the sinusoidal photometric variability of NaSt1 may arise from variations in the line-of-sight optical depth toward circumstellar optical/IR emitting regions throughout its orbit due to colliding-wind dust formation. We provide an interpretation on the nature of NaSt1 and speculate that the mass-transfer process may have been triggered by Roche-lobe overflow (RLOF) during an eruptive phase of a Ofpe/WN9 star. Lastly, we claim that NaSt1 ceased RLOF mass transfer ≲3400 yr ago.
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- PAR ID:
- 10280382
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ArXivorg
- ISSN:
- 2331-8422
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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