We present observational evidence that a significant regime change occurred around the year 2000 in the formation of Warm Core Rings (WCRs) from the Gulf Stream (GS) between 75° and 55°W. The dataset for this study is a set of synoptic oceanographic charts available over the thirty-eight-year period of 1980–2017. The upward regime change shows an increase to 33 WCRs per year during 2000–2017 from an average of 18 WCRs during 1980 to 1999. A seasonal analysis confirms May-June-July as the peak time for WCR births in agreement with earlier studies. The westernmost region (75°-70°W) is least ring-productive, while the region from 65°W to 60°W is most productive. This regime shift around 2000 is detected in WCR formation for all of the four 5-degree wide sub-regions and the whole region (75°-55°W). This might be related to a reduction of the deformation radius for ring formation, allowing unstable meanders to shed more frequent rings in recent years. A number of possible factors resulting in such a regime shift related to the possible changes in reduced gravity, instability, transport of the GS, large-scale changes in the wind system and atmospheric fluxes are outlined, which suggest new research directions. The increase in WCRs has likely had an impact on the marine ecosystem since 2000, a topic worthy for future studies.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10280438
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
Abstract A census of Gulf Stream (GS) warm‐core rings (WCRs) is presented based on 38 years (1980–2017) of data. The census documents formation and demise times and locations, and formation size for all 961 WCRs formed in the study period that live for a week or more. A clear regime shift was observed around the Year 2000 and was reported by a subset of authors (Gangopadhyay et al., 2019,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48661-9 ). The WCR formation over the whole region (75–55°W) increased from an average of 18 per year during Regime 1 (1980–1999) to 33 per year during Regime 2 (2000–2017). For geographic analysis formation locations were grouped in four 5° zones between 75°W and 55°W. Seasonally, WCR formations show a significant summer maxima and winter minima, a pattern that is consistent through all zones and both temporal regimes. The lifespan and size distribution show progressively more rings with higher longevity and greater size when formed to the east of 70°W. The average lifespan of the WCRs in all four zones decreased by 20–40% depending on zones and/or seasons from Regime 1 to Regime 2, while the size distribution remained unchanged across regimes. The ring footprint index, a first‐order signature of impact of the WCRs on the slope, increased significantly (26–90%) for all zones from Regime 1 to Regime 2, with the highest percent increase in Zone 2 (70–65°W). This observational study establishes critical statistical and dynamical benchmarks for validating numerical models and highlights the need for further dynamical understanding of the GS‐ring formation processes. -
This dataset consists of weekly trajectory information of Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings from 2000-2010. This work builds upon Silver et al. (2022a) ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6436380) which contained Warm Core Ring trajectory information from 2011 to 2020. Combining the two datasets a total of 21 years of weekly Warm Core Ring trajectories can be obtained. An example of how to use such a dataset can be found in Silver et al. (2022b).
The format of the dataset is similar to that of Silver et al. (2022a), and the following description is adapted from their dataset. This dataset is comprised of individual files containing each ring’s weekly center location and its area for 374 WCRs present between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. Each Warm Core Ring is identified by a unique alphanumeric code 'WEyyyymmddA', where 'WE' represents a Warm Eddy (as identified in the analysis charts); 'yyyymmdd' is the year, month and day of formation; and the last character 'A' represents the sequential sighting of the eddies in a particular year. Continuity of a ring which passes from one year to the next is maintained by the same character in the first sighting. For example, the first ring in 2002 having a trailing alphabet of 'F' indicates that five rings were carried over from 2001 which were still observed on January 1, 2002. Each ring has its own netCDF (.nc) filename following its alphanumeric code. Each file contains 4 variables, “Lon”- the ring center’s weekly longitude, “Lat”- the ring center’s weekly latitude, “Area” - the rings weekly size in km2, and “Date” in days - representing the days since Jan 01, 0000.
The process of creating the WCR tracking dataset follows the same methodology of the previously generated WCR census (Gangopadhyay et al., 2019, 2020). The Jenifer Clark’s Gulf Stream Charts used to create this dataset are 2-3 times a week from 2000-2010. Thus, we used approximately 1560 Charts for the 10 years of analysis. All of these charts were reanalyzed between 75° and 55°W using QGIS 2.18.16 (2016) and geo-referenced on a WGS84 coordinate system (Decker, 1986).
Silver, A., Gangopadhyay, A, & Gawarkiewicz, G. (2022a). Warm Core Ring Trajectories in the Northwest Atlantic Slope Sea (2011-2020) (1.0.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6436380
Silver, A., Gangopadhyay, A., Gawarkiewicz, G., Andres, M., Flierl, G., & Clark, J. (2022b). Spatial Variability of Movement, Structure, and Formation of Warm Core Rings in the Northwest Atlantic Slope Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127(8), e2022JC018737. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018737
Gangopadhyay, A., G. Gawarkiewicz, N. Etige, M. Monim and J. Clark, 2019. An Observed Regime Shift in the Formation of Warm Core Rings from the Gulf Stream, Nature - Scientific Reports, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48661-9. www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-48661-9.
Gangopadhyay, A., N. Etige, G. Gawarkiewicz, A. M. Silver, M. Monim and J. Clark, 2020. A Census of the Warm Core Rings of the Gulf Stream (1980-2017). Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, 125, e2019JC016033. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC016033.
QGIS Development Team. QGIS Geographic Information System (2016).
Decker, B. L. World Geodetic System 1984. World geodetic system 1984 (1986).
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Abstract Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings (WCRs) have important influences on the New England Shelf and marine ecosystems. A 10‐year (2011–2020) WCR dataset that tracks weekly WCR locations and surface areas is used here to identify the rings' path and characterize their movement between 55 and 75°W. The WCR dataset reveals a very narrow band between 66 and 71°W along which rings travel almost due west along ∼39°N across isobaths – the “Ring Corridor.” Then, west of the corridor, the mean path turns southwestward, paralleling the shelfbreak. The average ring translation speed along the mean path is 5.9 cm s−1. Long‐lived rings (lifespan >150 days) tend to occupy the region west of the New England Seamount Chain (NESC) whereas short‐lived rings (lifespan <150 days) tend to be more broadly distributed. WCR vertical structures, analyzed using available Argo float profiles indicate that rings that are formed to the west of the NESC have shallower thermoclines than those formed to the east. This tendency may be due to different WCR formation processes that are observed to occur along different sections of the Gulf Stream. WCRs formed to the east of the NESC tend to form from a pinch‐off mechanism incorporating cores of Sargasso Sea water and a perimeter of Gulf Stream water. WCRs that form to the west of the NESC, form from a process called an aneurysm. WCRs formed through aneurysms comprise water mostly from the northern half of the Gulf Stream and are smaller than the classic pinch‐off rings.
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Abstract Survival of Gulf Stream (GS) warm core rings (WCRs) was investigated using a census consisting of a total of 961 rings formed during the period 1980–2017. Kaplan‐Meier survival probability and Cox hazard proportional models were used for the analysis. The survival analysis was performed for rings formed in four 5° zones between 75° W and 55° W. The radius, latitude, and distance from the shelf‐break of a WCR at formation all had a significant effect on the survival of WCRs. A pattern of higher survival was observed in WCRs formed in Zone 2 (70°–65° W) or Zone 3 (65°–60° W) and then demised in Zone 1 (75°–70° W). Survival probability of the WCRs increased to more than
70 for those formed within a latitude band from 39.5° to 41.5° N. Survival probability is reduced when the WCRs are formed near the New England Seamounts.%