The objective of this study was to assess feasibility of integrating a coupled fire-atmosphere model within an air-quality forecast system to create a multiscale air-quality modeling framework designed to simulate wildfire smoke. For this study, a coupled fire-atmosphere model, WRF-SFIRE, was integrated, one-way, with the AIRPACT air-quality modeling system. WRF-SFIRE resolved local meteorology, fire growth, the fire plume rise, and smoke dispersion, and provided AIRPACT with fire inputs. The WRF-SFIRE-forecasted fire area and the explicitly resolved vertical smoke distribution replaced the parameterized BlueSky fire inputs used by AIRPACT. The WRF-SFIRE/AIRPACT integrated framework was successfully tested for two separate wildfire events (2015 Cougar Creek and 2016 Pioneer fires). The execution time for the WRF-SFIRE simulations was <3 h for a 48 h-long forecast, suggesting that integrating coupled fire-atmosphere simulations within the daily AIRPACT cycle is feasible. While the WRF-SFIRE forecasts realistically captured fire growth 2 days in advance, the largest improvements in the air quality simulations were associated with the wildfire plume rise. WRF-SFIRE-estimated plume tops were within 300-m of satellite-estimated plume top heights for both case studies analyzed in this study. Air quality simulations produced by AIRPACT with and without WRF-SFIRE inputs were evaluated with nearby PM 2 . 5 measurement sites to assess the performance of our multiscale smoke modeling framework. The largest improvements when coupling WRF-SFIRE with AIRPACT were observed for the Cougar Creek Fire where model errors were reduced by ∼50%. For the second case (Pioneer fire), the most notable change with WRF-SFIRE coupling was that the probability of detection increased from 16 to 52%.
more »
« less
Do we need weather prediction models to account for local weather modifications by wildland fires?
During the summer of 2015, a number of wildfires fires burned across northern California, which produced significant smoke across the region. Smoke from these wildfires hindered fire-fighting efforts by delaying helicopter operations and exposed communities to high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Nighttime inversions are common across the western U.S. and usually mix out during the early afternoon as a result of convective mixing from daytime heating. However, atmospheric conditions in valleys adjacent to the aforementioned wildfires remained stable throughout the afternoon. It is hypothesized that the smoke from nearby wildfires enhanced atmospheric stability due to surface cooling caused by reduced incoming solar radiation, and possibly by warming aloft due to absorption of the incoming solar radiation in the smoke layer. At the same time, mid-level heating from the wildfire could have increased atmospheric stability and extended the duration of the inversion.
In this study, we utilize the WRF-SFIRE-CHEM modeling framework, which couples an atmospheric, chemical, and fire spread model in an effort the model the impacts of smoke on local inversions and to improve the physical understanding behind these smoke-induced inversion episodes. This modeling framework was used to simulate the Route and South Complex
fires between August 10 – August 26th, 2015. Preliminary results indicate that wildfire smoke may have significantly reduced incoming solar radiation, leading to local surface cooling by up to 2-3 degrees. Direct heating from the fire itself does not significantly enhance atmospheric stability. However, mid-level warming was observed in the smoke layer suggesting that absorption in this layer may have enhanced the inversion. This study suggests the including the fire-smoke- atmosphere feedbacks in a coupled modeling framework such as WRF-SFIRE-CHEM may help in capturing the impacts of wildfire smoke on near-surface stability and local inversions.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1664175
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10280996
- Editor(s):
- Viegas, Domingos Xavier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advances in Forest Fire Research 2018
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 987 - 994
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
We examine the 2002 Yakutsk wildfire event and simulate the impacts of smoke aerosols on local radiative energy budget, using the WRF-Chem-SMOKE model. When comparing satellite retrievals (the Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) dataset) with model simulations, we found that the agreement is generally good, except for the regions where the model predicts too few clouds or SRB misclassifies strong smoke plumes as clouds. We also found that the smoke-induced changes in upward shortwave fluxes at top of atmosphere (TOA) vary under different burning and meteorological conditions. In the first period of the fire season (9–12 August), smoke particles cause a warming effect around 3 W/m2, mainly through functioning as ice nuclei, which deplete the cloud water amount in the frontal system. At the beginning of the second period of the fire season (19–20 August), large amounts of pre-existing smoke particles cause a strong cooling effect of −8 W/m2. This is offset by the warming effect caused by relatively small amounts of cloud condensation nuclei increases, which promotes the rain formation and depletes the cloud water amount. After the cloud decks are well mixed with smoke plumes (21–22 August), the first indirect and direct effects of smoke together lead to a cooling of −10 W/m2. These results highlight the importance of meso-scale modeling efforts in estimating the smoke-induced changes in the radiative energy budget over high latitudes.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Injections of wildfire smoke plumes into the free troposphere impact air quality, yet model forecasts of injections are poor. Here, we use aircraft observations obtained during the 2019 western US wildfires (FIREX-AQ) to evaluate a commonly used smoke plume rise parameterization in two atmospheric chemistry-transport models (WRF-Chem and HRRR-Smoke). Observations show that smoke injections into the free troposphere occur in 35% of plumes, whereas the models forecast 59–95% indicating false injections in the simulations. False injections were associated with both models overestimating fire heat flux and terrain height, and with WRF-Chem underestimating planetary boundary layer height. We estimate that the radiant fraction of heat flux is 0.5 to 25 times larger in models than in observations, depending on fuel type. Model performance was substantially improved by using observed heat flux and boundary layer heights, confirming that models need accurate heat fluxes and boundary layer heights to correctly forecast plume injections.
-
more » « less
Abstract Wildfire emissions are a key contributor of carbonaceous aerosols and trace gases to the atmosphere. Induced by buoyant lifting, smoke plumes can be injected into the free troposphere and lower stratosphere, which by consequence significantly affects the magnitude and distance of their influences on air quality and radiation budget. However, the vertical allocation of emissions when smoke escapes the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the mechanism modulating it remain unclear. We present an inverse modeling framework to estimate the wildfire emissions, with their temporal and vertical evolution being constrained by assimilating aerosol extinction profiles observed from the airborne Differential Absorption Lidar‐High Spectral Resolution Lidar during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign. Three fire events in the western U.S., which exhibit free‐tropospheric injections are examined. The constrained smoke emissions indicate considerably larger fractions of smoke injected above the PBL (
f >PBL, 80%–94%) versus the column total, compared to those estimated by the WRF‐Chem model using the default plume rise option (12%–52%). The updated emission profiles yield improvements for the simulated vertical structures of the downwind transported smoke, but limited refinement of regional smoke aerosol optical depth distributions due to the spatiotemporal coverage of flight observations. These results highlight the significance of improving vertical allocation of fire emissions on advancing the modeling and forecasting of the environmental impacts of smoke. -
more » « less
Despite recent advances in both coupled fire modeling and measurement techniques to sample the fire environment, the fire–atmosphere coupling mechanisms that lead to fast propagating wildfires remain poorly understood. This knowledge gap adversely affects fire management when wildland fires propagate unexpectedly rapidly and shift direction due to the fire impacts on local wind conditions. In this work, we utilized observational data from the FireFlux2 prescribed burn and numerical simulations performed with a coupled fire–atmosphere model WRF-SFIRE to assess the small-scale impacts of fire on local micrometeorology under moderate wind conditions (10–12 m/s). The FireFlux2 prescribed burn provided a comprehensive observational dataset with in situ meteorological observations as well as IR measurements of fire progression. To directly quantify the effects of fire–atmosphere interactions, two WRF-SFIRE simulations were executed. One simulation was run in a two-way coupled mode in which the heat and moisture fluxes emitted from the fire were injected into the atmosphere, and the other simulation was performed in a one-way coupled mode for which the atmosphere was not affected by the fire. The difference between these two simulations was used to analyze and quantify the fire impacts on the atmospheric circulation at different sections of the fire front. The fire-released heat fluxes resulted in vertical velocities as high as 10.8 m/s at the highest measurement level (20 m above ground level) gradually diminishing with height and dropping to 7.9 m/s at 5.77 m. The fire-induced horizontal winds indicated the strongest fire-induced flow at the lowest measurement levels (as high as 3.3 m/s) gradually decreasing to less than 1 m/s at 20 m above ground level. The analysis of the simulated flow indicates significant differences between the fire-induced circulation at the fire head and on the flanks. The fire-induced circulation was much stronger near the fire head than at the flanks, where the fire did not produce particularly strong cross-fire flow and did not significantly change the lateral fire progression. However, at the head of the fire the fire-induced winds blowing across the front were the strongest and significantly accelerated fire progression. The two-way coupled simulation including the fire-induced winds produced 36.2% faster fire propagation than the one-way coupled run, and more realistically represented the fire progression.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-16-506_108
