skip to main content

Title: Novel classification of axial spondyloarthritis to predict radiographic progression using machine learning
OBJECTIVES: Prediction and determination of drug efficacy for radiographic progression is limited by the heterogeneity inherent in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). We investigated whether unbiased clustering analysis of phenotypic data can lead to coherent subgroups of axSpA patients with a distinct risk of radiographic progression. METHODS: A group of 412 patients with axSpA was clustered in an unbiased way using a agglomerative hierarchical clustering method, based on their phenotype mapping. We used a generalised linear model, naïve Bayes, Decision Trees, K-Nearest-Neighbors, and Support Vector Machines to construct a consensus classification method. Radiographic progression over 2 years was assessed using the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS). RESULTS: axSpA patients were classified into three distinct subgroups with distinct clinical characteristics. Sex, smoking, HLA-B27, baseline mSASSS, uveitis, and peripheral arthritis were the key features that were found to stratifying the phenogroups. The three phenogroups showed distinct differences in radiographic progression rate (p<0.05) and the proportion of progressors (p<0.001). Phenogroup 2, consisting of male smokers, had the worst radiographic progression, while phenogroup 3, exclusively suffering from uveitis, showed the least radiographic progression. The axSpA phenogroup classification, including its ability to stratify risk, was successfully replicated in an independent validation group. CONCLUSIONS: Phenotype mapping results in a clinically relevant classification of more » axSpA that is applicable for risk stratification. Novel coupling between phenotypic features and radiographic progression can provide a glimpse into the mechanisms underlying divergent and shared features of axSpA. « less
Authors:
; ; ; ;
Award ID(s):
1934568
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10281958
Journal Name:
Clinical and Experimental Rheumatology
Volume:
39
Issue:
3
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
508-518
ISSN:
1593-098X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Single cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) technology enables comprehensive transcriptomic profiling of thousands of cells with distinct phenotypic and physiological states in a complex tissue. Substantial efforts have been made to characterize single cells of distinct identities from scRNA-seq data, including various cell clustering techniques. While existing approaches can handle single cells in terms of different cell (sub)types at a high resolution, identification of the functional variability within the same cell type remains unsolved. In addition, there is a lack of robust method to handle the inter-subject variation that often brings severe confounding effects for the functional clustering of single cells. Inmore »this study, we developed a novel data denoising and cell clustering approach, namely CIBS, to provide biologically explainable functional classification for scRNA-seq data. CIBS is based on a systems biology model of transcriptional regulation that assumes a multi-modality distribution of the cells’ activation status, and it utilizes a Boolean matrix factorization approach on the discretized expression status to robustly derive functional modules. CIBS is empowered by a novel fast Boolean Matrix Factorization method, namely PFAST, to increase the computational feasibility on large scale scRNA-seq data. Application of CIBS on two scRNA-seq datasets collected from cancer tumor micro-environment successfully identified subgroups of cancer cells with distinct expression patterns of epithelial-mesenchymal transition and extracellular matrix marker genes, which was not revealed by the existing cell clustering analysis tools. The identified cell groups were significantly associated with the clinically confirmed lymph-node invasion and metastasis events across different patients. Index Terms—Cell clustering analysis, Data denoising, Boolean matrix factorization, Cancer microenvirionment, Metastasis.« less
  2. Introduction: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) causes progressive irreversible cognitive decline and is the leading cause of dementia. Therefore, a timely diagnosis is imperative to maximize neurological preservation. However, current treatments are either too costly or limited in availability. In this project, we explored using retinal vasculature as a potential biomarker for early AD diagnosis. This project focuses on stage 3 of a three-stage modular machine learning pipeline which consisted of image quality selection, vessel map generation, and classification [1]. The previous model only used support vector machine (SVM) to classify AD labels which limited its accuracy to 82%. In this project,more »random forest and gradient boosting were added and, along with SVM, combined into an ensemble classifier, raising the classification accuracy to 89%. Materials and Methods: Subjects classified as AD were those who were diagnosed with dementia in “Dementia Outcome: Alzheimer’s disease” from the UK Biobank Electronic Health Records. Five control groups were chosen with a 5:1 ratio of control to AD patients where the control patients had the same age, gender, and eye side image as the AD patient. In total, 122 vessel images from each group (AD and control) were used. The vessel maps were then segmented from fundus images through U-net. A t-test feature selection was first done on the training folds and the selected features was fed into the classifiers with a p-value threshold of 0.01. Next, 20 repetitions of 5-fold cross validation were performed where the hyperparameters were solely tuned on the training data. An ensemble classifier consisting of SVM, gradient boosting tree, and random forests was built and the final prediction was made through majority voting and evaluated on the test set. Results and Discussion: Through ensemble classification, accuracy increased by 4-12% relative to the individual classifiers, precision by 9-15%, sensitivity by 2-9%, specificity by at least 9-16%, and F1 score by 712%. Conclusions: Overall, a relatively high classification accuracy was achieved using machine learning ensemble classification with SVM, random forest, and gradient boosting. Although the results are very promising, a limitation of this study is that the requirement of needing images of sufficient quality decreased the amount of control parameters that can be implemented. However, through retinal vasculature analysis, this project shows machine learning’s high potential to be an efficient, more cost-effective alternative to diagnosing Alzheimer’s disease. Clinical Application: Using machine learning for AD diagnosis through retinal images will make screening available for a broader population by being more accessible and cost-efficient. Mobile device based screening can also be enabled at primary screening in resource-deprived regions. It can provide a pathway for future understanding of the association between biomarkers in the eye and brain.« less
  3. Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. (Ed.)
    Background Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. Methods and findings A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to designmore »better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates ( p -value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d −1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d −1 ), 0.777 d −1 (0.716 to 0.838 d −1 ), and 0.450 d −1 (0.378 to 0.522 d −1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. Conclusions In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.« less
  4. Background Acute respiratory failure is generally treated with invasive mechanical ventilation or noninvasive respiratory support strategies. The efficacies of the various strategies are not fully understood. There is a need for accurate therapy-based phenotyping for secondary analyses of electronic health record data to answer research questions regarding respiratory management and outcomes with each strategy. Objective The objective of this study was to address knowledge gaps related to ventilation therapy strategies across diverse patient populations by developing an algorithm for accurate identification of patients with acute respiratory failure. To accomplish this objective, our goal was to develop rule-based computable phenotypes formore »patients with acute respiratory failure using remotely monitored intensive care unit (tele-ICU) data. This approach permits analyses by ventilation strategy across broad patient populations of interest with the ability to sub-phenotype as research questions require. Methods Tele-ICU data from ≥200 hospitals were used to create a rule-based algorithm for phenotyping patients with acute respiratory failure, defined as an adult patient requiring invasive mechanical ventilation or a noninvasive strategy. The dataset spans a wide range of hospitals and ICU types across all US regions. Structured clinical data, including ventilation therapy start and stop times, medication records, and nurse and respiratory therapy charts, were used to define clinical phenotypes. All adult patients of any diagnoses with record of ventilation therapy were included. Patients were categorized by ventilation type, and analysis of event sequences using record timestamps defined each phenotype. Manual validation was performed on 5% of patients in each phenotype. Results We developed 7 phenotypes: (0) invasive mechanical ventilation, (1) noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation, (2) high-flow nasal insufflation, (3) noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation subsequently requiring intubation, (4) high-flow nasal insufflation subsequently requiring intubation, (5) invasive mechanical ventilation with extubation to noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation, and (6) invasive mechanical ventilation with extubation to high-flow nasal insufflation. A total of 27,734 patients met our phenotype criteria and were categorized into these ventilation subgroups. Manual validation of a random selection of 5% of records from each phenotype resulted in a total accuracy of 88% and a precision and recall of 0.8789 and 0.8785, respectively, across all phenotypes. Individual phenotype validation showed that the algorithm categorizes patients particularly well but has challenges with patients that require ≥2 management strategies. Conclusions Our proposed computable phenotyping algorithm for patients with acute respiratory failure effectively identifies patients for therapy-focused research regardless of admission diagnosis or comorbidities and allows for management strategy comparisons across populations of interest.« less
  5. Background With advances in digital health technologies and proliferation of biomedical data in recent years, applications of machine learning in health care and medicine have gained considerable attention. While inpatient settings are equipped to generate rich clinical data from patients, there is a dearth of actionable information that can be used for pursuing secondary research for specific clinical conditions. Objective This study focused on applying unsupervised machine learning techniques for traumatic brain injury (TBI), which is the leading cause of death and disability among children and adults aged less than 44 years. Specifically, we present a case study to demonstratemore »the feasibility and applicability of subspace clustering techniques for extracting patterns from data collected from TBI patients. Methods Data for this study were obtained from the Progesterone for Traumatic Brain Injury, Experimental Clinical Treatment–Phase III (PROTECT III) trial, which included a cohort of 882 TBI patients. We applied subspace-clustering methods (density-based, cell-based, and clustering-oriented methods) to this data set and compared the performance of the different clustering methods. Results The analyses showed the following three clusters of laboratory physiological data: (1) international normalized ratio (INR), (2) INR, chloride, and creatinine, and (3) hemoglobin and hematocrit. While all subclustering algorithms had a reasonable accuracy in classifying patients by mortality status, the density-based algorithm had a higher F1 score and coverage. Conclusions Clustering approaches serve as an important step for phenotype definition and validation in clinical domains such as TBI, where patient and injury heterogeneity are among the major reasons for failure of clinical trials. The results from this study provide a foundation to develop scalable clustering algorithms for further research and validation.« less