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Prior research reports mixed results regarding the economic impacts of crime. This study employs data from all regions of Mexico, including border regions in both the north and the south, to examine the effects of homicides on retail activity across Mexico during a period of escalating violence. The results indicate that one additional homicide within a municipality eliminates one retail establishment and one paid job in the retail sector. Furthermore, the negative consequences of violent crime for retailers are augmented by proximity to an international border. This is consistent with previous research findings that cross-border shopping is a key feature of commerce along the international boundaries of Mexico. It suggests that crime waves may disproportionately impact border city retail activity by partially diverting customer traffic to stores located in neighboring countries. This result is also consistent with the finding of recent research that violent conflict in northern Mexico resulted in increased retail activity in some United States border cities.
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Is Gang Violent Crime More Contagious than Non-Gang Violent Crime?
- Award ID(s):
- 2027277
- PAR ID:
- 10282717
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Quantitative Criminology
- ISSN:
- 0748-4518
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Research SummaryThe onset of extreme social distancing measures is expected to have a dramatic impact on crime. Here, we examine the impact of mandated, city‐wide social distancing orders aimed at limiting the spread of COVID‐19 on gang‐related crime in Los Angeles. We hypothesize that the unique subcultural processes surrounding gangs may supersede calls to shelter in place and allow gang‐related crime to persist. If the normal guardianship of people and property is also disrupted by social distancing, then we expect gang violence to increase. Using autoregressive time series models, we show that gang‐related crime remained stable and crime hot spots largely stationary following the onset of shelter in place. Policy ImplicationsIn responding to disruptions to social and economic life on the scale of the present pandemic, both police and civilian organizations need to anticipate continued demand, all while managing potential reductions to workforce. Police are faced with this challenge across a wide array of crime types. Civilian interventionists tasked with responding to gang‐related crime need to be prepared for continued peacekeeping and violence interruption activities, but also an expansion of responsibilities to deal with “frontline” or “street‐level” management of public health needs.more » « less
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Objectives Researchers have long studied the persistence of violence and aggravation from disorder to violence in communities. Recently this work has begun to consider how these phenomena might operate simultaneously at multiple geographic scales. We examine the role of neighborhoods, streets, and addresses in these phenomena, presenting and assessing a five-part typology for cross-scale interactions. Methods We calculated six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violent crime from administrative records for all parcels (i.e., addresses) in Boston, MA, for 2011–2016. Multilevel models used these measures to predict public violence and gun-related events in the following year at all three geographical scales and with cross-scale interactions. Results Persistence was common at all scales. Aggravation from disorder to crime was greatest for addresses. Nearly all significant cross-level interactions involved addresses. The most common interactions were reinforced persistence, when persistence of violence at an address was reinforced by violence in the street or neighborhood; and mediated persistence, when persistence at a higher geographic scale operated through addresses with disorder. Conclusions The study suggests that action is greatest at addresses, but streets and neighborhoods offer critical context. It also provides a framework for future work assessing the complementarity of communities and places.more » « less
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The consensus that disasters do not cause an increase in crime rates is receiving renewed attention. In recent years, research has emerged that challenges this consensus by positing that crime rates and the type of crime may vary depending on the phase of the emergency. To address this, this research utilizes comprehensive crime data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System and hazard event data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States. Employing regression discontinuity design principles, swaths of linear regression models across different time scales are fitted, yielding nearly 200 statistically significant coefficients. The findings reveal correlations between certain natural hazard types and changes in crime rates. For instance, a correlation between winter weather hazard events and a subsequent drop in crime rates is observed whereas severe thunderstorms were associated with an increase in crime rates. Additionally, an increase in crime rates following natural hazard events that were observed in the shorter time scales (e.g., hail, tornadoes) did not persist into the longer time scale, where, in fact, negative treatment effects and a negative change in trend were found. These results shed light on the complex relationship between natural hazards and crime rates, providing valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and other stakeholders. Given that the intensity and frequency of natural hazards are on the rise, a better understanding of these dynamics can increase the efficiency of resource allocation for public safety and target the deployment of law enforcement more effectively.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-020-09479-1
