An official website of the United States government
Abstract Extreme heat events are a threat to human health, productivity, and food supply, so understanding their drivers is critical to adaptation and resilience. Anticyclonic circulation and certain quasi-stationary Rossby wave patterns are well known to coincide with heatwaves, and soil moisture deficits amplify extreme heat in some regions. However, the relative roles of these two factors in causing heatwaves is still unclear. Here we use constructed circulation analogs to estimate the contribution of atmospheric circulation to heatwaves in the United States in the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) preindustrial control simulations. After accounting for the component of the heatwaves explained by circulation, we explore the relationship between the residual temperature anomalies and soil moisture. We find that circulation explains over 85% of heatwave temperature anomalies in the eastern and western United States but only 75%–85% in the central United States. In this region, there is a significant negative correlation between soil moisture the week before the heatwave and the strength of the heatwave that explains additional variance. Further, for the hottest central U.S. heatwaves, positive temperature anomalies and negative soil moisture anomalies are evident over a month before heatwave onset. These results provide evidence that positive land–atmosphere feedbacks may be amplifying heatwaves in the central United States and demonstrate the geographic heterogeneity in the relative importance of the land and atmosphere for heatwave development. Analysis of future circulation and soil moisture in the CESM1 Large Ensemble indicates that, over parts of the United States, both may be trending toward greater heatwave likelihood.
more »
« less
Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping point
Unprecedented heatwave-drought concurrences in the past two decades have been reported over inner East Asia. Tree-ring–based reconstructions of heatwaves and soil moisture for the past 260 years reveal an abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over this region. Enhanced land-atmosphere coupling, associated with persistent soil moisture deficit, appears to intensify surface warming and anticyclonic circulation anomalies, fueling heatwaves that exacerbate soil drying. Our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the recent two decades is unprecedented over the quarter of a millennium, and this trend clearly exceeds the natural variability range. The “hockey stick”–like change warns that the warming and drying concurrence is potentially irreversible beyond a tipping point in the East Asian climate system.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1903721
- PAR ID:
- 10283417
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- Volume:
- 370
- Issue:
- 6520
- ISSN:
- 0036-8075
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1095 to 1099
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract This study examines December-January-February (DJF) soil moisture responses to multi-year (MY) and single-year (SY) La Niñas using a 2200-year CESM1 simulation, AGCM experiments, and observational data. Four regions where MY La Niñas amplify SY La Niñas’ impacts on soil moisture were identified: North America, Australia, the Middle East, and the Sahel. SY La Niñas typically cause soil moisture drying in the Middle East and North America and wetting in Australia and the Sahel. MY La Niñas enhance these effects in the second DJF due to the strengthening of precipitation anomalies or the accumulation of precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies, except in the Sahel where wetting is driven in part by evapotranspiration anomalies. Soil moisture variations are linked to La Niña-induced sea surface temperature changes in the Indian Ocean (for Australia and the Middle East) and the Pacific Ocean (for North America). These amplified effects are largely supported by the observed MY La Niña events from 1948 to 2022. These findings emphasize the need to integrate MY La Niñas into regional agriculture and water resource management strategies to better anticipate and mitigate their impacts.more » « less
-
Abstract The US Southwest is in a drought crisis that has been developing over the past two decades, contributing to marked increases in burned forest areas and unprecedented efforts to reduce water consumption. Climate change has contributed to this ongoing decadal drought via warming that has increased evaporative demand and reduced snowpack and streamflows. However, on the supply side, precipitation has been low during the 21st century. Here, using simulations with an atmosphere model forced by imposed sea surface temperatures, we show that the 21st century shift to cooler tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures forced a decline in cool season precipitation that in turn drove a decline in spring to summer soil moisture in the southwest. We then project the near-term future out to 2040, accounting for plausible and realistic natural decadal variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and radiatively-forced change. The future evolution of decadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic will strongly influence how wet or dry the southwest is in coming decades as a result of the influence on cool season precipitation. The worst-case scenario involves a continued cold state of the tropical Pacific and the development of a warm state of the Atlantic while the best case scenario would be a transition to a warm state of the tropical Pacific and the development of a cold state of the Atlantic. Radiatively-forced cool season precipitation reduction is strongest if future forced SST change continues the observed pattern of no warming in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. Although this is a weaker influence on summer soil moisture than natural decadal variability, no combination of natural decadal variability and forced change ensures a return to winter precipitation or summer soil moisture levels as high as those in the final two decades of the 20th century.more » « less
-
Abstract The increasing frequency of heatwaves over East Asia (EA) is impacting agriculture, water management, and people’s livelihood. However, the effect of humidity on high-temperature events has not yet been fully explored. Using observations and future climate change projections conducted with the latest generation of Earth System models, we examine the mechanisms of dry and moist heatwaves over EA. In the dry heatwave region, anticyclonic circulation has been amplified after the onset of heatwaves under the influence of the convergence of anomalous wave activity flux over northern EA, resulting in surface warming via adiabatic processes. In contrast, the moist heatwaves are triggered by the locally generated anticyclonic anomalies, with the surface warming amplified by cloud and water vapor feedback. Model simulations from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project projected display intensification of dry heatwaves and increased moist heatwave days in response to projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.more » « less
-
Abstract An unprecedented heatwave impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large‐scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large‐scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near‐melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3368
