This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.
- Award ID(s):
- 1928237
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10284206
- Editor(s):
- J. Richter-Menge, M. L.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- ISSN:
- 1520-0477
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- S1–S429
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades.
-
more » « less
Abstract The Kuparuk River, located on Alaska's North Slope, is one of the most studied rivers in the Arctic. For nearly 40 seasons, physical, chemical, and biological parameters have been monitored continuously in a 5 km, 4th‐order reach of the river during the short summer season when there is flow in this river. Flow decreases as the tundra begins to refreeze in the late autumn and these streams normally remain frozen until the spring freshet. The monitoring program has supported a 34‐year phosphorus enrichment experiment conducted by the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. Enrichment with phosphorus dramatically changed the structure and function of the primary producer community in the fertilized reach, with cascading effects in higher trophic levels. The datasets generated by this experiment have revealed significant increases in flow‐weighted mean concentrations of nitrate and significant decreases in flow‐weighted mean concentrations of dissolved organic N and P over time. In this paper, we present an overview of the nutrient concentration, discharge, macroinvertebrate, and Arctic grayling population datasets we have collected. The purposes of these datasets are to track changes resulting from the enrichment experiment, support ancillary research on responses of an Arctic stream to climate warming and permafrost thaw, and to provide input and validation data for models to predict future changes in Arctic streams.
-
Monarch butterflies in eastern North America have declined by 84% on Mexican wintering grounds since the observed peak in 1996. However, coarse-scale population indices from northern US breeding grounds do not show a consistent downward trend. This discrepancy has led to speculation that autumn migration may be a critical limiting period. We address this hypothesis by examining the role of multiscale processes impacting monarchs during autumn, assessed using arrival abundances at all known winter colony sites over a 12-y period (2004–2015). We quantified effects of continental-scale (climate, landscape greenness, and disease) and local-scale (colony habitat quality) drivers of spatiotemporal trends in winter colony sizes. We also included effects of peak summer and migratory population indices. Our results demonstrate that higher summer abundance on northern breeding grounds led to larger winter colonies as did greener autumns, a proxy for increased nectar availability in southern US floral corridors. Colony sizes were also positively correlated with the amount of local dense forest cover and whether they were located within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, but were not influenced by disease rates. Although we demonstrate a demographic link between summer and fine-scale winter population sizes, we also reveal that conditions experienced during, and at the culmination of, autumn migration impact annual dynamics. Monarchs face a growing threat if floral resources and winter habitat availability diminish under climate change. Our study tackles a long-standing gap in the monarch’s annual cycle and highlights the importance of evaluating migratory conditions to understand mechanisms governing long-term population trends.more » « less
-
Abstract. The Arctic is a climatically sensitive region that has experienced warming at almost 3 times the global average rate in recent decades, leading to an increase in Arctic greenness and a greater abundance of plants that emit biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). These changes in atmospheric emissions are expected to significantly modify the overall oxidative chemistry of the region and lead to changes in VOC composition and abundance, with implications for atmospheric processes. Nonetheless, observations needed to constrain our current understanding of these issues in this critical environment are sparse. This work presents novel atmospheric in situ proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS) measurements of VOCs at Toolik Field Station (TFS; 68∘38′ N, 149∘36' W), in the Alaskan Arctictundra during May–June 2019. We employ a custom nested grid version of theGEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM), driven with MEGANv2.1 (Model ofEmissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1) biogenic emissionsfor Alaska at 0.25∘ × 0.3125∘ resolution, to interpret the observations in terms of their constraints onBVOC emissions, total reactive organic carbon (ROC) composition, andcalculated OH reactivity (OHr) in this environment. We find total ambientmole fraction of 78 identified VOCs to be 6.3 ± 0.4 ppbv (10.8 ± 0.5 ppbC), with overwhelming (> 80 %) contributions are from short-chain oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) including methanol, acetone and formaldehyde. Isoprene was the most abundant terpene identified. GEOS-Chem captures the observed isoprene (and its oxidation products), acetone and acetaldehyde abundances within the combined model and observation uncertainties (±25 %), but underestimates other OVOCs including methanol, formaldehyde, formic acid and acetic acid by a factor of 3 to 12. The negative model bias for methanol is attributed to underestimated biogenic methanol emissions for the Alaskan tundra in MEGANv2.1. Observed formaldehyde mole fractions increase exponentially with air temperature, likely reflecting its biogenic precursors and pointing to a systematic model underprediction of its secondary production. The median campaign-calculated OHr from VOCs measured at TFS was 0.7 s−1, roughly 5 % of the values typically reported in lower-latitude forested ecosystems. Ten species account for over 80 % of the calculated VOC OHr, with formaldehyde, isoprene and acetaldehyde together accounting for nearly half of the total. Simulated OHr based on median-modeled VOCs included in GEOS-Chem averages 0.5 s−1 and is dominated by isoprene (30 %) and monoterpenes (17 %). The data presented here serve as a critical evaluation of our knowledge of BVOCs and ROC budgets in high-latitude environments and represent a foundation for investigating and interpreting future warming-driven changes in VOC emissions in the Alaskan Arctic tundra.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0086.
