skip to main content


Title: Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework
Abstract

This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.

 
more » « less
Award ID(s):
1928237
NSF-PAR ID:
10360952
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
IOP Publishing
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Volume:
16
Issue:
5
ISSN:
1748-9326
Page Range / eLocation ID:
Article No. 055019
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Questions

    How do plant communities on zonal loamy vs. sandy soils vary across the full maritime Arctic bioclimate gradient? How are plant communities of these areas related to existing vegetation units of the European Vegetation Classification? What are the main environmental factors controlling transitions of vegetation along the bioclimate gradient?

    Location

    1700‐km Eurasia Arctic Transect (EAT), Yamal Peninsula and Franz Josef Land (FJL), Russia.

    Methods

    The Braun‐Blanquet approach was used to sample mesic loamy and sandy plots on 14 total study sites at six locations, one in each of the five Arctic bioclimate subzones and the forest–tundra transition. Trends in soil factors, cover of plant growth forms (PGFs) and species diversity were examined along the summer warmth index (SWI) gradient and on loamy and sandy soils. Classification and ordination were used to group the plots and to test relationships between vegetation and environmental factors.

    Results

    Clear, mostly non‐linear, trends occurred for soil factors, vegetation structure and species diversity along the climate gradient. Cluster analysis revealed seven groups with clear relationships to subzone and soil texture. Clusters at the ends of the bioclimate gradient (forest–tundra and polar desert) had many highly diagnostic taxa, whereas clusters from the Yamal Peninsula had only a few. Axis 1 of a DCA was strongly correlated with latitude and summer warmth; Axis 2 was strongly correlated with soil moisture, percentage sand and landscape age.

    Conclusions

    Summer temperature and soil texture have clear effects on tundra canopy structure and species composition, with consequences for ecosystem properties. Each layer of the plant canopy has a distinct region of peak abundance along the bioclimate gradient. The major vegetation types are weakly aligned with described classes of the European Vegetation Checklist, indicating a continuous floristic gradient rather than distinct subzone regions. The study provides ground‐based vegetation data for satellite‐based interpretations of the western maritime Eurasian Arctic, and the first vegetation data from Hayes Island, Franz Josef Land, which is strongly separated geographically and floristically from the rest of the gradient and most susceptible to on‐going climate change.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Tundra dominates two‐thirds of the unglaciated, terrestrial Arctic. Although this region has experienced rapid and widespread changes in vegetation phenology and productivity over the last several decades, the specific climatic drivers responsible for this change remain poorly understood. Here we quantified the effect of winter snowpack and early spring temperature conditions on growing season vegetation phenology (timing of the start, peak, and end of the growing season) and productivity of the dominant tundra vegetation communities of Arctic Alaska. We used daily remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and daily snowpack and temperature variables produced by SnowModel and MicroMet, coupled physically based snow and meteorological modeling tools, to (1) determine the most important snowpack and thermal controls on tundra vegetation phenology and productivity and (2) describe the direction of these relationships within each vegetation community. Our results show that soil temperature under the snowpack, snowmelt timing, and air temperature following snowmelt are the most important drivers of growing season timing and productivity among Arctic vegetation communities. Air temperature after snowmelt was the most important control on timing of season start and end, with warmer conditions contributing to earlier phenology in all vegetation communities. In contrast, the controls on the timing of peak season and productivity also included snowmelt timing and soil temperature under the snowpack, dictated in part by the snow insulating capacity. The results of this novel analysis suggest that while future warming effects on phenology may be consistent across communities of the tundra biome, warming may result in divergent, community‐specific productivity responses if coupled with reduced snow insulating capacity lowers winter soil temperature and potential nutrient cycling in the soil.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Many studies have reported that the Arctic is greening; however, we lack an understanding of the detailed patterns and processes that are leading to this observed greening. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to quantify greening, which has had largely positive trends over the last few decades using low spatial resolution satellite imagery such as AVHRR or MODIS over the pan-Arctic region. However, substantial fine scale spatial heterogeneity in the Arctic makes this large-scale investigation hard to interpret in terms of vegetation and other environmental changes. Here we focus on one area of the northern Alaskan Arctic using high spatial resolution (4 m) multispectral satellite imagery from DigitalGlobeto analyze the greening trend near Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow) over 14 years from 2002 to 2016. We found that tundra vegetation has been greening (τ = 0.65,p = 0.01, NDVI increase of 0.01 yr−1) despite no overall change in vegetation community composition. The greening is most closely correlated to the number of thawing degree days (R2 = 0.77,F = 21.5,p < 0.001) which increased in a similar linear trend over the 14 year study period (1.79 ± 0.50 days per year,p < 0.01,τ = −0.56). This suggests that in this Arctic ecosystem, greening is occurring due to a lengthening growing season that appears to stimulate plant productivity without any significant change in vegetation communities. We found that vegetation communities in wetter locations greened about twice as fast as those found in drier conditions supporting the hypothesis that these communities respond more strongly to warming. We suggest that in Arctic environments, vegetation productivity may continue to rise, particularly in wet areas.

     
    more » « less
  4. J. Richter-Menge, M. L. (Ed.)
    Highlights•In North America, tundra productivity for the 2019 growing season (the most recent data available) rebounded strongly from the previous year, in tandem with record summer warmth following the cold summer of 2018.•Since 2016, greenness trends have diverged strongly by continent; peak summer greenness has declined sharply in North America but has remained above the long-term mean in Eurasia.•The long-term satellite record (1982-2019) indicates "greening" across most of the Arctic but some regions exhibit "browning," underscoring the dynamic linkages that exist between tundra ecosystems and other elements of a changing Arctic system. 
    more » « less
  5. null (Ed.)
    The transition zone between the northern boreal forest and the arctic tundra, known as the tundra-taiga ecotone (TTE) has undergone rapid warming in recent decades. In response to this warming, tree density, growth, and stand productivity are expected to increase. Increases in tree density have the potential to negate the positive impacts of warming on tree growth through a reduction in the active layer and an increase in competitive interactions. We assessed the effects of tree density on tree growth and climate-growth responses of Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) and on trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the TTE of Northeast Siberia. We examined 19 mature forest stands that all established after a fire in 1940 and ranged in tree density from 300 to 37,000 stems ha-1. High density stands with shallow active layers had lower tree growth, higher stand productivity, and more negative growth responses to growing season temperatures compared to low density stands with deep active layers. Variation in stand productivity across the density gradient was not captured by Landsat derived NDVI, but NDVI did capture annual variations in stand productivity. Our results suggest that the expected increases in tree density following fires at the TTE may effectively limit tree growth and that NDVI is unlikely to capture increasing productivity associated with changes in tree density. 
    more » « less