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1. Modeling and tracking Covid-19 cases using Big Data analytics on HPCC system platform

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40537-021-00423-z  

   Villanustre, Flavio ; Chala, Arjuna ; Dev, Roger ; Xu, Lili ; LexisNexis, Jesse Shaw ; Furht, Borko ; Khoshgoftaar, Taghi ( December 2021 , Journal of Big Data)

   Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infectedmore »person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper.« less
2. The rapid diagnosis and effective inhibition of coronavirus using spike antibody attached gold nanoparticles

   https://doi.org/10.1039/D0NA01007C  

   Pramanik, Avijit ; Gao, Ye ; Patibandla, Shamily ; Mitra, Dipanwita ; McCandless, Martin G. ; Fassero, Lauren A. ; Gates, Kalein ; Tandon, Ritesh ; Chandra Ray, Paresh ( January 2021 , Nanoscale Advances)

   Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of the coronavirus disease that began in 2019 (COVID-19), has been responsible for 1.4 million deaths worldwide as of 13 November 2020. Because at the time of writing no vaccine is yet available, a rapid diagnostic assay is very urgently needed. Herein, we present the development of anti-spike antibody attached gold nanoparticles for the rapid diagnosis of specific COVID-19 viral antigen or virus via a simple colorimetric change observation within a 5 minute time period. For rapid and highly sensitive identification, surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) was employed using 4-aminothiophenol as a reporter molecule, which is attached to the gold nanoparticle via an Au–S bond. In the presence of COVID-19 antigen or virus particles, owing to the antigen–antibody interaction, the gold nanoparticles undergo aggregation, changing color from pink to blue, which allows for the determination of the presence of antigen or virus very rapidly by the naked eye, even at concentrations of 1 nanogram (ng) per mL for COVID-19 antigen and 1000 virus particles per mL for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein pseudotyped baculovirus. Importantly, the aggregated gold nanoparticles form “hot spots” to provide very strong SERS signal enhancement from anti-spike antibody andmore »4-aminothiophenol attached gold nanoparticles via light–matter interactions. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation data indicate a 4-orders-of-magnitude Raman enhancement in “hot spot” positions when gold nanoparticles form aggregates. Using a portable Raman analyzer, our reported data demonstrate that our antibody and 4-aminothiophenol attached gold nanoparticle-based SERS probe has the capability to detect COVID-19 antigen even at a concentration of 4 picograms (pg) per mL and virus at a concentration of 18 virus particles per mL within a 5 minute time period. Using HEK293T cells, which express angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), by which SARS-CoV-2 enters human cells, we show that anti-spike antibody attached gold nanoparticles have the capability to inhibit infection by the virus. Our reported data show that antibody attached gold nanoparticles bind to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, thereby inhibiting the virus from binding to cell receptors, which stops virus infection and spread. It also has the capability to destroy the lipid membrane of the virus.« less
3. Ensemble machine learning of factors influencing COVID-19 across US counties

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90827-x  

   McCoy, David ; Mgbara, Whitney ; Horvitz, Nir ; Getz, Wayne M. ; Hubbard, Alan ( December 2021 , Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) the causal agent for COVID-19, is a communicable disease spread through close contact. It is known to disproportionately impact certain communities due to both biological susceptibility and inequitable exposure. In this study, we investigate the most important health, social, and environmental factors impacting the early phases (before July, 2020) of per capita COVID-19 transmission and per capita all-cause mortality in US counties. We aggregate county-level physical and mental health, environmental pollution, access to health care, demographic characteristics, vulnerable population scores, and other epidemiological data to create a large feature set to analyze per capita COVID-19 outcomes. Because of the high-dimensionality, multicollinearity, and unknown interactions of the data, we use ensemble machine learning and marginal prediction methods to identify the most salient factors associated with several COVID-19 outbreak measure. Our variable importance results show that measures of ethnicity, public transportation and preventable diseases are the strongest predictors for both per capita COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Specifically, the CDC measures for minority populations, CDC measures for limited English, and proportion of Black- and/or African-American individuals in a county were the most important features for per capita COVID-19 cases within a month after the pandemicmore »started in a county and also at the latest date examined. For per capita all-cause mortality at day 100 and total to date, we find that public transportation use and proportion of Black- and/or African-American individuals in a county are the strongest predictors. The methods predict that, keeping all other factors fixed, a 10% increase in public transportation use, all other factors remaining fixed at the observed values, is associated with increases mortality at day 100 of 2012 individuals (95% CI [1972, 2356]) and likewise a 10% increase in the proportion of Black- and/or African-American individuals in a county is associated with increases total deaths at end of study of 2067 (95% CI [1189, 2654]). Using data until the end of study, the same metric suggests ethnicity has double the association as the next most important factors, which are location, disease prevalence, and transit factors. Our findings shed light on societal patterns that have been reported and experienced in the U.S. by using robust methods to understand the features most responsible for transmission and sectors of society most vulnerable to infection and mortality. In particular, our results provide evidence of the disproportionate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on minority populations. Our results suggest that mitigation measures, including how vaccines are distributed, could have the greatest impact if they are given with priority to the highest risk communities.« less
4. Conserved Genomic Terminals of SARS-CoV-2 as Coevolving Functional Elements and Potential Therapeutic Targets

   https://doi.org/10.1128/mSphere.00754-20  

   Chan, Agnes P. ; Choi, Yongwook ; Schork, Nicholas J. ( December 2020 , mSphere)

   Lee, Benhur (Ed.)

   ABSTRACT Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected over 40 million people worldwide, with over 1 million deaths as of October 2020 and with multiple efforts in the development and testing of antiviral drugs and vaccines under way. In order to gain insights into SARS-CoV-2 evolution and drug targets, we investigated how and to what extent the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence differs from those of other well-characterized human and animal coronavirus genomes, as well as how polymorphic SARS-CoV-2 genomes are generally. We ultimately sought to identify features in the SARS-CoV-2 genome that may contribute to its viral replication, host pathogenicity, and vulnerabilities. Our analyses suggest the presence of unique sequence signatures in the 3′ untranslated region (3′-UTR) of betacoronavirus lineage B, which phylogenetically encompasses SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV as well as multiple groups of bat and animal coronaviruses. In addition, we identified genome-wide patterns of variation across different SARS-CoV-2 strains that likely reflect the effects of selection. Finally, we provide evidence for a possible host-microRNA-mediated interaction between the 3′-UTR and human microRNA hsa-miR-1307-3p based on the results of multiple computational target prediction analyses and an assessment of similar interactions involving the influenza A H1N1 virus. This interaction also suggests amore »possible survival mechanism, whereby a mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 3′-UTR leads to a weakened host immune response. The potential roles of host microRNAs in SARS-CoV-2 replication and infection and the exploitation of conserved features in the 3′-UTR as therapeutic targets warrant further investigation. IMPORTANCE The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is having a dramatic global effect on public health and the economy. As of October 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in over 189 countries, has infected over 40 million people, and is responsible for more than 1 million deaths. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 is small but complex, and its functions and interactions with human host factors are being studied extensively. The significance of our study is that, using extensive SARS-CoV-2 genome analysis techniques, we identified potential interacting human host microRNA targets that share similarity with those of influenza A virus H1N1. Our study results will allow the development of virus-host interaction models that will enhance our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and motivate the exploitation of both the interacting viral and host factors as therapeutic targets.« less
5. Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003660  

   Iwanami, Shoya ; Ejima, Keisuke ; Kim, Kwang Su ; Noshita, Koji ; Fujita, Yasuhisa ; Miyazaki, Taiga ; Kohno, Shigeru ; Miyazaki, Yoshitsugu ; Morimoto, Shimpei ; Nakaoka, Shinji ; et al ( July 2021 , PLOS Medicine)

   Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. (Ed.)

   Background Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. Methods and findings A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates ( p -value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d −1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d −1 ), 0.777 d −1 (0.716 to 0.838 d −1 ), and 0.450 d −1 (0.378 to 0.522 d −1more ») for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. Conclusions In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.« less