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1. Schistosome infection in Senegal is associated with different spatial extents of risk and ecological drivers for Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009712  

   Jones, Isabel J. ; Sokolow, Susanne H. ; Chamberlin, Andrew J. ; Lund, Andrea J. ; Jouanard, Nicolas ; Bandagny, Lydie ; Ndione, Raphaël ; Senghor, Simon ; Schacht, Anne-Marie ; Riveau, Gilles ; et al ( September 2021 , PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases)

   Secor, W. Evan (Ed.)

   Schistosome parasites infect more than 200 million people annually, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, where people may be co-infected with more than one species of the parasite. Infection risk for any single species is determined, in part, by the distribution of its obligate intermediate host snail. As the World Health Organization reprioritizes snail control to reduce the global burden of schistosomiasis, there is renewed importance in knowing when and where to target those efforts, which could vary by schistosome species. This study estimates factors associated with schistosomiasis risk in 16 villages located in the Senegal River Basin, a region hyperendemic formore »Schistosoma haematobium and S . mansoni . We first analyzed the spatial distributions of the two schistosomes’ intermediate host snails ( Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi , respectively) at village water access sites. Then, we separately evaluated the relationships between human S . haematobium and S . mansoni infections and (i) the area of remotely-sensed snail habitat across spatial extents ranging from 1 to 120 m from shorelines, and (ii) water access site size and shape characteristics. We compared the influence of snail habitat across spatial extents because, while snail sampling is traditionally done near shorelines, we hypothesized that snails further from shore also contribute to infection risk. We found that, controlling for demographic variables, human risk for S . haematobium infection was positively correlated with snail habitat when snail habitat was measured over a much greater radius from shore (45 m to 120 m) than usual. S . haematobium risk was also associated with large, open water access sites. However, S . mansoni infection risk was associated with small, sheltered water access sites, and was not positively correlated with snail habitat at any spatial sampling radius. Our findings highlight the need to consider different ecological and environmental factors driving the transmission of each schistosome species in co-endemic landscapes.« less
2. School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0970  

   Head, Jennifer R. ; Andrejko, Kristin L. ; Cheng, Qu ; Collender, Philip A. ; Phillips, Sophie ; Boser, Anna ; Heaney, Alexandra K. ; Hoover, Christopher M. ; Wu, Sean L. ; Northrup, Graham R. ; et al ( April 2021 , Journal of The Royal Society Interface)

   School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K–12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: −985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650;more »95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: −1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.« less
3. Dynamics of data availability in disease modeling: An example evaluating the trade-offs of ultra-fine-scale factors applied to human West Nile virus disease models in the Chicago area, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251517  

   Uelmen, J. A. ; Irwin, P. ; Brown, W. M. ; Karki, S. ; Ruiz, M. O. ; Li, B. ; Smith, R. L. ( May 2021 , PLOS ONE)

   Wen, Feng (Ed.)

   Background Since 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has moved rapidly across the United States, resulting in tens of thousands of human cases. Both the number of human cases and the minimum infection rate (MIR) in vector mosquitoes vary across time and space and are driven by numerous abiotic and biotic forces, ranging from differences in microclimates to socio-demographic factors. Because the interactions among these multiple factors affect the locally variable risk of WNV illness, it has been especially difficult to model human disease risk across varying spatial and temporal scales. Cook and DuPage Counties, comprising the city of Chicago andmore »surrounding suburbs, experience some of the highest numbers of human neuroinvasive cases of WNV in the United States. Despite active mosquito control efforts, there is consistent annual WNV presence, resulting in more than 285 confirmed WNV human cases and 20 deaths from the years 2014–2018 in Cook County alone. Methods A previous Chicago-area WNV model identified the fifty-five most high and low risk locations in the Northwest Mosquito Abatement District (NWMAD), an enclave ¼ the size of the combined Cook and DuPage county area. In these locations, human WNV risk was stratified by model performance, as indicated by differences in studentized residuals. Within these areas, an additional two-years of field collections and data processing was added to a 12-year WNV dataset that includes human cases, MIR, vector abundance, and land-use, historical climate, and socio-economic and demographic variables, and was assessed by an ultra-fine-scale (1 km spatial x 1 week temporal resolution) multivariate logistic regression model. Results Multivariate statistical methods applied to the ultra-fine-scale model identified fewer explanatory variables while improving upon the fit of the previous model. Beyond MIR and climatic factors, efforts to acquire additional covariates only slightly improved model predictive performance. Conclusions These results suggest human WNV illness in the Chicago area may be associated with fewer, but increasingly critical, key variables at finer scales. Given limited resources, these findings suggest large variations in model performance occur, depending on covariate availability, and provide guidance in variable selection for optimal WNV human illness modeling.« less
4. Prenatal and early-life exposure to the Great Chinese Famine increased the risk of tuberculosis in adulthood across two generations

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008336117  

   Cheng, Qu ; Trangucci, Robert ; Nelson, Kristin N. ; Fu, Wenjiang ; Collender, Philip A. ; Head, Jennifer R. ; Hoover, Christopher M. ; Skaff, Nicholas K. ; Li, Ting ; Li, Xintong ; et al ( October 2020 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Global food security is a major driver of population health, and food system collapse may have complex and long-lasting effects on health outcomes. We examined the effect of prenatal exposure to the Great Chinese Famine (1958–1962)—the largest famine in human history—on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) across consecutive generations in a major center of ongoing transmission in China. We analyzed >1 million PTB cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2018 in Sichuan Province using age–period–cohort analysis and mixed-effects metaregression to estimate the effect of the famine on PTB risk in the directly affected birth cohort (F1) and their likely offspring (F2). The analysismore »was repeated on certain sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections (STBBI) to explore potential mechanisms of the intergenerational effects. A substantial burden of active PTB in the exposed F1 cohort and their offspring was attributable to the Great Chinese Famine, with more than 12,000 famine-attributable active PTB cases (>1.23% of all cases reported between 2005 and 2018). An interquartile range increase in famine intensity resulted in a 6.53% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19–12.14%) increase in the ratio of observed to expected incidence rate (incidence rate ratio, IRR) in the absence of famine in F1, and an 8.32% (95% CI: 0.59–16.6%) increase in F2 IRR. Increased risk of STBBI was also observed in F2. Prenatal and early-life exposure to malnutrition may increase the risk of active PTB in the exposed generation and their offspring, with the intergenerational effect potentially due to both within-household transmission and increases in host susceptibility.

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5. Climate change, extreme events, and increased risk of salmonellosis: foodborne diseases active surveillance network (FoodNet), 2004-2014

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-021-00787-y  

   Morgado, Michele E. ; Jiang, Chengsheng ; Zambrana, Jordan ; Upperman, Crystal Romeo ; Mitchell, Clifford ; Boyle, Michelle ; Sapkota, Amy R. ; Sapkota, Amir ( September 2021 , Environmental Health)

   Infections with nontyphoidalSalmonellacause an estimated 19,336 hospitalizations each year in the United States. Sources of infection can vary by state and include animal and plant-based foods, as well as environmental reservoirs. Several studies have recognized the importance of increased ambient temperature and precipitation in the spread and persistence ofSalmonellain soil and food. However, the impact of extreme weather events onSalmonellainfection rates among the most prevalent serovars, has not been fully evaluated across distinct U.S. regions.

   To address this knowledge gap, we obtainedSalmonellacase data forS.Enteriditis,S.Typhimurium,S.Newport, andS.Javiana (2004-2014; n = 32,951) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and weathermore »data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2014). Extreme heat and precipitation events for the study period (2004-2014) were identified using location and calendar day specific 95^thpercentile thresholds derived using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989). Negative binomial generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between exposure to extreme events and salmonellosis rates.

   We observed that extreme heat exposure was associated with increased rates of infection withS.Newport in Maryland (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.07, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01, 1.14), and Tennessee (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.09), both FoodNet sites with high densities of animal feeding operations (e.g., broiler chickens and cattle). Extreme precipitation events were also associated with increased rates ofS.Javiana infections, by 22% in Connecticut (IRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.35) and by 5% in Georgia (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.08), respectively. In addition, there was an 11% (IRR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04-1.18) increased rate ofS. Newport infections in Maryland associated with extreme precipitation events.

   Overall, our study suggests a stronger association between extreme precipitation events, compared to extreme heat, and salmonellosis across multiple U.S. regions. In addition, the rates of infection withSalmonellaserovars that persist in environmental or plant-based reservoirs, such asS.Javiana andS.Newport, appear to be of particular significance regarding increased heat and rainfall events.

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