skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


  • NSF Public Access
  • Search Results
  • Antimicrobial Resistance and Livestock Trade for Low and Middle Income Countries: Regional Analysis of Global Coordination Policies
Title: Antimicrobial Resistance and Livestock Trade for Low and Middle Income Countries: Regional Analysis of Global Coordination Policies
Antimicrobial resistance is a threat to global health, aggravated by the use of antimicrobials in livestock production. Mitigating the growing economic costs related to antimicrobial use in livestock production requires strong global coordination, and to that end policy makers can leverage global and national food animal trade policies, such as bans and user fees. Evaluation of such policies requires representing the interactions between competing producers in the global meat market, which is usually out of the scope of statistical models. For that, we developed a game-theoretic food system model of global livestock production and trade between 18 countries and aggregate world regions. The model comprises the largest producing and consuming countries, the explicit interconnections between countries, and the use of antimicrobials in food animal production. Our model allows us to provide policy insights beyond standard literature and assess the trade-off between trade, cost of a policy, and antimicrobials-induced productivity. We studied three scenarios: global increased user fees on antimicrobials, a global ban of meat imports from Brazil, and a decrease in China's meat consumption. We found that a user fee that increases the price of antimicrobials by 50% globally leads to a 33% reduction in global antimicrobial use. However, participation of developing and emerging countries in the coordination scheme is jeopardized, since they become less competitive for meat sales compared to developed countries. When meat imports from Brazil are banned globally, importers of Brazil's meat would turn primarily to the U.S. to supplement their demand. Lastly, meeting China's medium-term lower meat consumption target would not affect global antimicrobial use, but could increase China's antimicrobial use by 11%. We highlighted the importance of trade for the outcome of a policy and concluded that global cooperation is required to align the incentives of all countries toward tackling antimicrobial resistance.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2114098
PAR ID:
10288234
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
Volume:
5
ISSN:
2571-581X
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; (, PLOS ONE)
    Butaye, Patrick (Ed.)
    Antimicrobials are widely used worldwide in food animal production for controlling and preventing disease and for improving feed conversion efficiency and growth promotion. Inappropriate use of antimicrobials in animal agriculture has the potential to promote antimicrobial resistance, which represents a threat to human, animal, and environmental health. State and municipal policies in the United States have recently been implemented to improve antimicrobial use and reporting in this sector. This study analyzed the implementation of two state-level policies (California (CA) and Maryland (MD)) and a city-level policy in San Francisco (SF), California that aimed to reduce the use of antimicrobials in food-animals and increase transparency of antimicrobial use. A qualitative analysis was based on in-depth interviews with key informants (KIs) (n = 19) who had direct experience implementing or working in the context of these sub-national policies. Interviews were recorded and transcriptions were analyzed independently by two researchers using a three-stage, grounded theory coding procedure. This study identified four major findings, including 1) vague language on antimicrobial use within policies reduces policy effectiveness; 2) the lack of reporting by producers challenges the ability to evaluate the impact of the policies on actual use; 3) diverse stakeholders need to be involved in order to develop a more effective policy; and 4) funding should be linked to the policy to provide for reporting and data analysis. This analysis provides insights on the successes and failures of existing policies and serves to inform future sub-national policies aiming to improve the judicious use of antimicrobials in food-animals. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; (, Scientific Reports)
    null (Ed.)
    Abstract Rapid increases in meat trade generate complex global networks across countries. However, there has been little research quantifying the dynamics of meat trade networks and the underlying forces that structure them. Using longitudinal network data for 134 countries from 1995 to 2015, we combined network modeling and cluster analysis to simultaneously identify the structural changes in meat trade networks and the factors that influence the networks themselves. The integrated network approach uncovers a general consolidation of global meat trade networks over time, although some global events may have weakened this consolidation both regionally and globally. In consolidated networks, the presence of trade agreements and short geographic distances between pairs of countries are associated with increases in meat trade. Countries with rapid population and income growth greatly depend on meat imports. Furthermore, countries with high food availability import large quantities of meat products to satisfy their various meat preferences. The findings from this network approach provide key insights that can be used to better understand the social and environmental consequences of increasing global meat trade. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, PLOS ONE)
    Ali, Zakari (Ed.)
    The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate potential climate change impacts on national food supply, comparing impacts on domestic production alone (domestic production impacts) to impacts considering how climate change impacts production in all source regions (consumption impact). Under 2°C additional global mean warming over present day, our analysis highlights that climate impacts on national supply are aggravated for 53% high income and 56% upper medium income countries and mitigated for 60% low- and 71% low-medium income countries under consumption-based impacts compared to domestic impacts alone. We find that many countries are reliant on a few mega-exporters who mediate these climate impacts. Managing the risk of climate change for national food security requires a global perspective, considering not only how national production is affected, but also how climate change affects trading partners. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Earth System Dynamics)
    Abstract. The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g. nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g. due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global food trade, focusing on wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice, accounting for about 60 % of global calorie intake. Our findings indicate that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, with soot emissions equivalent to a major nuclear war between India and Pakistan (37 Tg), could severely disrupt trade, causing most countries to lose the vast majority of their food imports (50 %–100 % decrease), primarily due to the main exporting countries being heavily affected. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss with a comparable impact on yields as the abrupt sunlight reduction has a more homogeneous distribution of yield declines, resulting in most countries losing up to half of their food imports (25 %–50 % decrease). Thus, our analysis shows that both scenarios could significantly impact the food trade. However, the abrupt sunlight reduction scenario is likely more disruptive than global catastrophic infrastructure loss regarding the effects of yield reductions on food trade. This study underscores the vulnerabilities of the global food trade network to catastrophic risks and the need for enhanced preparedness. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; (, Annual Review of Resource Economics)
    null (Ed.)
    Global agriculture consumes substantial resources and produces significant pollution. By shifting its production to new locations, and inducing changes in technology and input use, trade has a substantial impact on environmental sustainability of the world's food systems, but due to suboptimal environmental policy, the exact nature of these impacts is in dispute. We review the literature on agricultural trade and environmental sustainability, highlighting the different approaches taken in ecology versus economics. While useful in identifying environmental costs, much of the ecological literature does not compare these costs to a trade-free counterfactual and can therefore be misleading. Further, by moving production to places with more resources and increasing production efficiency, trade can reduce the environmental impact of food production. On the other hand, trade can also limit the effectiveness of domestic environmental policy because production can be shifted to countries with less stringent regulations. However, recently, consumers are leveraging trade policy to induce exporters to improve environmental sustainability. While such policies are gaining traction in wealthy countries, evidence suggests that such measures will not reach their potential without buy-in from decision makers in the countries where the environmental damages are occurring. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Resource Economics, Volume 13 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email