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1. Rupture Segmentation of the 14 August 2021 Mw 7.2 Nippes, Haiti, Earthquake Using Aftershock Relocation from a Local Seismic Deployment

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220128  

   Douilly, Roby; Paul, Sylvert; Monfret, Tony; Deschamps, Anne; Ambrois, David; Symithe, Steeve J.; St Fleur, Sadrac; Courboulex, Françoise; Calais, Eric; Boisson, Dominique; et al (October 2022, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)

   ABSTRACT The 14 August 2021 Mw 7.2 Haiti earthquake struck 11 yr after the devastating 2010 event within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden (EPG) fault zone in the Southern peninsula of Haiti. Space geodetic results show that the rupture is composed of both left-lateral strike-slip and thrust motion, similar to the 2010 rupture; but aftershock locations from a local short-period network are too diffuse to precisely delineate the segments that participated in this rupture. A few days after the mainshocks, we installed 12 broadband stations in the epicentral area. Here, we use data from those stations in combination with four local Raspberry Shakes stations that were already in place as part of a citizen seismology experiment to precisely relocate 2528 aftershocks from August to December 2021, and derive 1D P- and S-crustal velocity models for this region. We show that the aftershocks delineate three north-dipping structures with different strikes, located to the north of the EPG fault. In addition, two smaller aftershock clusters occurred on the EPG fault near the hypocenter area, indicative of triggered seismicity. Focal mechanisms are in agreement with coseismic slip inversion from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data with nodal planes that are consistent with the transpressional structures illustrated by the aftershock zones. 

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2. Detecting Urban Earthquakes with the San Fernando Valley Nodal Array and Machine Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250124  

   Omojola, Joses; Persaud, Patricia (August 2025, Seismological Research Letters)

   Abstract The San Fernando Valley (SFV), part of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, is a seismically active urban environment. Large-magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge event that occurred on a blind fault beneath the valley, caused significant infrastructure damage in the region, underscoring the need for enhanced seismic monitoring to improve the identification of buried faults and hazard evaluation. Currently, the Southern California Earthquake Data Center operates four broadband instruments within the valley; however, the network’s ability to capture small earthquakes beneath the region may be limited. To demonstrate how this data gap can be filled, we use recordings from the SFV array, comprised of 140 nodal instruments with interstation distances ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 km that recorded for one month. High-anthropogenic noise levels in urbanized areas tend to conceal earthquake signals; therefore, we applied a previously developed machine learning model fine-tuned on similar waveforms to detect events and pick seismic phases. In a two-step event association workflow, isolated phase picks were first culled, which eliminated false positive detections and reduced computational runtime. We located 62 events within a 209 km radius of our array with magnitudes ranging from ML 0.13 to 4, including 36 new events that were undetected by the regional network. One event cluster reveals a previously unidentified (5.3 km × 4 km) blind fault zone located ∼5 km beneath the southern part of the valley. Seismicity from this zone is rare in the regional catalog (<3 events per year), despite producing a Mb 4.4 event in 2014. Our results highlight the benefits of detecting small-magnitude seismicity for hazard estimation. Temporary nodal arrays can identify critical gaps in regional monitoring and guide site selection for permanent stations. In addition, our workflow can be applied to complement seismic monitoring in other urban settings. 

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3. The Role of Stress Transfer in Rupture Nucleation and Inhibition in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Sequence, and a One-Year Earthquake Forecast

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230252  

   Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S (January 2024, Seismological Research Letters)

   Abstract We probe the interaction of large earthquakes on the East Anatolian fault zone, site of four Mw ≥ 6.8 events since 2020. We find that the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık shock promoted the Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake 9 hr later, largely through unclamping of the epicentral patch of the future rupture. Epicentral unclamping is also documented in the 1987 Superstition Hills, 1997 Kagoshima, and 2019 Ridgecrest sequences, so this may be common. The Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake, in turn, is calculated to have reduced the shear stress on the central Pazarcık rupture, producing a decrease in the aftershock rate along that section of the rupture. Nevertheless, the Mw 7.7 event ruptured through a Çardak fault section on which the shear stress was decreased by the Mw 7.8 rupture, and so rupture propagation was not halted by the static stress decrease. The 2020 Mw 6.8 Doğanyol–Sivrice earthquake, located beyond the northeast tip of the Mw 7.8 Pazarcık rupture, locally dropped the stress by ∼10 bars. The 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake then increased the stress there by 1–2 bar, leaving a net stress drop, resulting in a hole in the 2023 Pazarcık aftershocks. We find that many lobes of calculated stress increase caused by the 2020–2023 Mw 6.8–7.8 earthquakes are sites of aftershocks, and we calculate 5–10 faults in several locations off the ruptures brought closer to failure. The earthquakes also cast broad stress shadows in which most faults were brought farther from failure, and we observe the beginnings of seismicity rate decreases in some of the deepest stress shadows. Some 41 Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks have struck since the Mw 7.8 mainshock. But based on these Coulomb interactions and on the rapid Kahramanmaraş aftershock decay, we forecast only about 1–3 Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes during the 12–month period beginning 1 December 2023, which is fortunately quite low. 

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4. Long- and Short-Term Stress Interaction of the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence and Coulomb-Based Earthquake Forecasts

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200169  

   Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S. (July 2020, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)

   Abstract We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1  bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross-fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the Mw 7.1. Together, the Ridgecrest mainshocks brought a 120 km long portion of the Garlock fault from 0.2 to 10 bars closer to failure. These results motivate our introduction of forecasts of future seismicity. Most attempts to forecast aftershocks use statistical decay models or Coulomb stress transfer. Statistical approaches require simplifying assumptions about the spatial distribution of aftershocks and their decay; Coulomb models make simplifying assumptions about the geometry of the surrounding faults, which we seek here to remove. We perform a rate–state implementation of the Coulomb stress change on focal mechanisms to capture fault complexity. After tuning the model through a learning period to improve its forecast ability, we make retrospective forecasts to assess model’s predictive ability. Our forecast for the next 12 months yields a 2.3% chance of an Mw≥7.5 Garlock fault rupture. If such a rupture occurred and reached within 45 km of the San Andreas, we calculate it would raise the probability of a San Andreas rupture on the Mojave section by a factor of 150. We therefore estimate the net chance of large San Andreas earthquake in the next 12 months to be 1.15%, or about three to five times its background probability. 

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5. Deep-Learning-Based Catalog of Background Seismicity and Aftershocks of the 2020–2021 Large Earthquakes Along the Alaska Peninsula

   https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250072  

   Jie, Yaqi; Wei, Songqiao Shawn; Zhu, Weiqiang; Freymueller, Jeffrey; Elliott, Julie (September 2025, Seismological Research Letters)

   Abstract The Alaska Peninsula section of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone shows significant along-strike variations in seismic activity and interseismic plate coupling. This region experienced the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof megathrust, Mw 7.6 Sand Point strike-slip, and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik megathrust earthquakes. This study, utilizing deep learning techniques, presents a high-precision earthquake catalog, providing insights into background seismicity, aftershocks, and slab geometry. An abrupt change in the slab dip angle at 30–40 km depths in the Shumagin segment acted as a barrier to the Simeonof and Sand Point earthquake ruptures. The Simeonof event triggered more aftershocks in the overriding plate than the Chignik event, suggesting the overriding plate is more deformed and hydrated in the Shumagin segment. The Sand Point earthquake triggered numerous aftershocks in the overriding plate, delineating a fault in the overriding plate with similar geometry as the intraslab mainshock fault, but activated around seven days after the mainshock. 

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