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Abstract The five Mw≥7.8 continental transform earthquakes since 2000 all nucleated on branch faults. This includes the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili, 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, and 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık events. A branch or splay is typically an immature fault that connects to the transform at an oblique angle and can have a different rake and dip than the transform. The branch faults ruptured for at least 25 km before they joined the transforms, which then ruptured an additional 250–450 km, in all but one case (Pazarcık) unilaterally. Branch fault nucleation is also likely for the 1939 M 7.8 Erzincan earthquake, possible for the 1906 Mw∼7.8 and 1857 Mw∼7.9 San Andreas earthquakes, but not for the 1990 Mw 7.7 Luzon, 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan, and 2023 Mw 7.7 Elbistan events. Here, we argue that because fault continuity and cataclastite within the fault damage zone develop through cumulative fault slip, mature transforms are pathways for dynamic rupture. Once a rupture enters the transform from the branch fault, flash shear heating causes pore fluid pressurization and sudden weakening in the cataclastite, resulting in very low dynamic friction. But the static friction on transforms is high, and so they are usually far from failure, which could be why they tend to be aseismic between, or at least for centuries after, great events. This could explain why the largest continental transform earthquakes either begin on a branch fault or nucleate along the transform at locations where the damage zone is absent or the fault continuity is disrupted by bends or echelons, as in the 1999 Mw 7.6 İzmit earthquake. Recognition of branch fault nucleation could be used to strengthen earthquake early warning in regions such as California, New Zealand, and Türkiye with transform faults.
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The Role of Stress Transfer in Rupture Nucleation and Inhibition in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Sequence, and a One-Year Earthquake Forecast
Abstract We probe the interaction of large earthquakes on the East Anatolian fault zone, site of four Mw ≥ 6.8 events since 2020. We find that the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık shock promoted the Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake 9 hr later, largely through unclamping of the epicentral patch of the future rupture. Epicentral unclamping is also documented in the 1987 Superstition Hills, 1997 Kagoshima, and 2019 Ridgecrest sequences, so this may be common. The Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake, in turn, is calculated to have reduced the shear stress on the central Pazarcık rupture, producing a decrease in the aftershock rate along that section of the rupture. Nevertheless, the Mw 7.7 event ruptured through a Çardak fault section on which the shear stress was decreased by the Mw 7.8 rupture, and so rupture propagation was not halted by the static stress decrease. The 2020 Mw 6.8 Doğanyol–Sivrice earthquake, located beyond the northeast tip of the Mw 7.8 Pazarcık rupture, locally dropped the stress by ∼10 bars. The 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake then increased the stress there by 1–2 bar, leaving a net stress drop, resulting in a hole in the 2023 Pazarcık aftershocks. We find that many lobes of calculated stress increase caused by the 2020–2023 Mw 6.8–7.8 earthquakes are sites of aftershocks, and we calculate 5–10 faults in several locations off the ruptures brought closer to failure. The earthquakes also cast broad stress shadows in which most faults were brought farther from failure, and we observe the beginnings of seismicity rate decreases in some of the deepest stress shadows. Some 41 Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks have struck since the Mw 7.8 mainshock. But based on these Coulomb interactions and on the rapid Kahramanmaraş aftershock decay, we forecast only about 1–3 Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes during the 12–month period beginning 1 December 2023, which is fortunately quite low.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1853246
- PAR ID:
- 10509453
- Publisher / Repository:
- Seismological Society of America
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Seismological Research Letters
- Volume:
- 95
- Issue:
- 2A
- ISSN:
- 0895-0695
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 596 to 606
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230252
