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In many bio-surveillance and healthcare applications, data sources are measured from many spatial locations repeatedly over time, say, daily/weekly/monthly. In these applications, we are typically interested in detecting hot-spots, which are defined as some structured outliers that are sparse over the spatial domain but persistent over time. In this paper, we propose a tensor decomposition method to detect when and where the hot-spots occur. Our proposed methods represent the observed raw data as a three-dimensional tensor including a circular time dimension for daily/weekly/monthly patterns, and then decompose the tensor into three components: smooth global trend, local hot-spots, and residuals. A combination of LASSO and fused LASSO is used to estimate the model parameters, and a CUSUM procedure is applied to detect when and where the hot-spots might occur. The usefulness of our proposed methodology is validated through numerical simulation and a real-world dataset in the weekly number of gonorrhea cases from 2006 to 2018 for 50 states in the United States.
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Rapid detection of hot-spots via tensor decomposition with applications to crime rate data
In many real-world applications of monitoring multivariate spatio-temporal data that are non-stationary over time, one is often interested in detecting hot-spots with spatial sparsity and temporal consistency, instead of detecting system-wise changes as in traditional statistical process control (SPC) literature. In this paper, we propose an efficient method to detect hot-spots through tensor decomposition, and our method has three steps. First, we fit the observed data into a Smooth Sparse Decomposition Tensor (SSD-Tensor) model that serves as a dimension reduction and de-noising technique: it is an additive model decomposing the original data into: smooth but non-stationary global mean, sparse local anomalies, and random noises. Next, we estimate model parameters by the penalized framework that includes Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and fused LASSO penalty. An efficient recursive optimization algorithm is developed based on Fast Iterative Shrinkage Thresholding Algorithm (FISTA). Finally, we apply a Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) Control Chart to monitor model residuals after removing global means, which helps to detect when and where hot-spots occur. To demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed SSD-Tensor method, we compare it with several other methods including scan statistics, LASSO-based, PCA-based, T2-based control chart in extensive numerical simulation studies and a real crime rate dataset.
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- PAR ID:
- 10291553
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Applied Statistics
- ISSN:
- 0266-4763
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 27
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2021.1874892
