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Abstract We study the mechanical response of two‐dimensional vertical strike‐slip fault to coseismic damage evolution and interseismic healing of fault damage zones by simulating fully dynamic earthquake cycles. Our models show that fault zone structure evolution during the seismic cycle can have pronounced effects on mechanical behavior of locked and creeping fault segments. Immature fault damage zone models exhibit small and moderate subsurface earthquakes with irregular recurrence intervals and abundance of slow‐slip events during the interseismic period. In contrast, mature fault damage zone models host pulse‐like earthquake ruptures that can propagate to the surface and extend throughout the seismogenic zone, resulting in large stress drop, characteristic rupture extents, and regular recurrence intervals. Our results suggest that interseismic healing and coseismic damage accumulation in fault zones can explain the observed differences of earthquake behaviors between mature and immature fault zones and indicate a link between regional seismic hazard and fault structural maturity.
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The predictable chaos of slow earthquakes
Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using the slip history of the Cascadia subduction between 2007 and 2017, during which slow earthquakes have repeatedly ruptured multiple segments. We characterize the system dynamics using embedding theory and extreme value theory. The analysis reveals a low-dimensional (<5) nonlinear chaotic system rather than a stochastic system. We calculate properties of the underlying attractor like its correlation and instantaneous dimension, instantaneous persistence, and metric entropy. We infer that the system has a predictability horizon of the order of days weeks. For the better resolved segments, the onset of large slip events can be correctly forecasted by high values of the instantaneous dimension. Longer-term deterministic prediction seems intrinsically impossible. Regular earthquakes might similarly be predictable but with a limited predictable horizon of the order of their durations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1821853
- PAR ID:
- 10291993
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 27
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- eaaz5548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5548
