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Some of the most catastrophic fire events that have occurred in the western US in recent decades, such as the 2018 Camp Fire in California, were ignited by electric utility infrastructure. As wildfires and fire seasons intensify across the western United States, policymakers and utilities alike are working to mitigate the risk of wildfire as it relates to utility infrastructure. We pose the following research question: Is there an association between risk factors such as wildfire hazard potential and social vulnerability, and the inclusion of various strategies in mitigation planning by public or cooperative electric utilities in Washington, such as PSPS provisions and non-expulsion fuse installation? By applying statistical tools including t-tests and logistic regression modeling to test these potential associations, our analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between risk factors and the inclusion of specific wildfire mitigation strategies. We find that the inclusion of PSPS provisions in mitigation planning is significantly and nonlinearly associated with wildfire hazard potential, while social and socioeconomic vulnerability in the utility service area are negatively associated. Additionally, the installation of non-expulsion fuses is negatively associated with socioeconomic vulnerability in service populations. Overall, understanding the factors associated with wildfire mitigation planning can assist policymakers and state agencies in the prioritization of resources and practical support for utilities that may have limited capacity to mitigate wildfire risk.
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High-severity wildfire potential – associating meteorology, climate, resource demand and wildfire activity with preparedness levels
National and regional preparedness level (PL) designations support decisions about wildfire risk management. Such decisions occur across the fire season and influence pre-positioning of resources in areas of greatest fire potential, recall of personnel from off-duty status, requests for back-up resources from other areas, responses to requests to share resources with other regions during fire events, and decisions about fuel treatment and risk reduction, such as prescribed burning. In this paper, we assess the association between PLs assigned at national and regional (Northwest) scales and a set of predictors including meteorological and climate variables, wildfire activity and the mobilisation and allocation levels of fire suppression resources. To better understand the implicit weighting applied to these factors in setting PLs, we discern the qualitative and quantitative factors associated with PL designations by statistical analysis of the historical record of PLs across a range of conditions. Our analysis constitutes an important step towards efforts to forecast PLs and to support the future projection and anticipation of firefighting resource demand, thereby aiding wildfire risk management, planning and preparedness.
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- PAR ID:
- 10295649
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Volume:
- 30
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1049-8001
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 30
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20066
