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Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) are a critical yet disruptive wildfire mitigation strategy used by electric utilities to reduce ignition risk during periods of elevated fire danger. However, current PSPS decisions often lack transparency and consistency, prompting the need for data-driven tools to better understand utility behavior. This paper presents a Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework to model and interpret PSPS decision-making using post-event wildfire reports. Forecast-based weather and fire behavior features are used as model inputs to represent decision-relevant variables reported by utilities. The model is calibrated using Platt scaling for probabilistic interpretability and adapted across utilities using importance- weighted domain adaptation to address feature distribution shifts. A post-hoc clustering segments PSPS events into wildfire risk zones based on ignition risk metrics excluded from model train- ing. Results demonstrate that the proposed framework supports interpretable, transferable analysis of PSPS decisions, offering insight into utility practices and informing more transparent de- energization planning.
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Risk Factors and Wildfire Mitigation Planning by Public Utilities in Washington State
Some of the most catastrophic fire events that have occurred in the western US in recent decades, such as the 2018 Camp Fire in California, were ignited by electric utility infrastructure. As wildfires and fire seasons intensify across the western United States, policymakers and utilities alike are working to mitigate the risk of wildfire as it relates to utility infrastructure. We pose the following research question: Is there an association between risk factors such as wildfire hazard potential and social vulnerability, and the inclusion of various strategies in mitigation planning by public or cooperative electric utilities in Washington, such as PSPS provisions and non-expulsion fuse installation? By applying statistical tools including t-tests and logistic regression modeling to test these potential associations, our analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between risk factors and the inclusion of specific wildfire mitigation strategies. We find that the inclusion of PSPS provisions in mitigation planning is significantly and nonlinearly associated with wildfire hazard potential, while social and socioeconomic vulnerability in the utility service area are negatively associated. Additionally, the installation of non-expulsion fuses is negatively associated with socioeconomic vulnerability in service populations. Overall, understanding the factors associated with wildfire mitigation planning can assist policymakers and state agencies in the prioritization of resources and practical support for utilities that may have limited capacity to mitigate wildfire risk.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2019762
- PAR ID:
- 10590440
- Publisher / Repository:
- Fire
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Fire
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2571-6255
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 118
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8030118
