Background As fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system. Aims To address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel? Methods We develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel deployed. Key results Our analysis generates statistically significant models for personnel deployment based on precursors observable at the time and place of ignition. Conclusions We find that significant precursors for fire suppression resource deployment are location, fire weather, canopy cover, Wildland–Urban Interface category, and history of past fire. These results align partially with, but are distinct from, results of earlier research modelling expenditures related to suppression which include precursors such as total burned area which become observable only after an incident. Implications Understanding factors associated with both the natural system and the human system of decision-making that accompany high deployment fires supports holistic risk management given increasing simultaneity of ignitions and competition for resources for both fuel treatment and wildfire response. 
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                            Drivers of international fire management personnel deployed to the United States
                        
                    
    
            Background The rising occurrence of simultaneous large wildfires has put strain on United States national fire management capacity leading to increasing reliance on assistance from partner nations abroad. However, limited analysis exists on international resource-sharing patterns and the factors influencing when resources are requested and deployed. Aims This study examines the drivers of international fire management ground and overhead personnel deployed to the United States. Methods Using descriptive statistics and case examples data from 2008 to 2020, this study investigates the conditions under which international personnel are deployed to the United States and their relationship to domestic resource strain. Factors such as fire weather, fire simultaneity, and the impact on people and structures are analysed as potential drivers of demand for international resources. Additionally, barriers to resource sharing, including overlapping fire seasons between countries are examined. Key results The findings indicate that international personnel sharing is more likely when the United States reaches higher preparedness levels, experiences larger area burned, and when fires pose a greater impact on people and structures. However, overlapping fire seasons can limit the ability to share resources with partner nations. Conclusions and implications Understanding the factors influencing resource sharing can help improve collaboration efforts and enhance preparedness for future wildfire seasons. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 2019762
- PAR ID:
- 10527553
- Publisher / Repository:
- International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Volume:
- 33
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1049-8001
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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