More Like this

1. Characterising ignition precursors associated with high levels of deployment of wildland fire personnel

   https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23182  

   Cullen, Alison C; Goldgeier, Brian R; Belval, Erin; Abatzoglou, John T (July 2024, International Journal of Wildland Fire)

   Background As fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system. Aims To address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel? Methods We develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel deployed. Key results Our analysis generates statistically significant models for personnel deployment based on precursors observable at the time and place of ignition. Conclusions We find that significant precursors for fire suppression resource deployment are location, fire weather, canopy cover, Wildland–Urban Interface category, and history of past fire. These results align partially with, but are distinct from, results of earlier research modelling expenditures related to suppression which include precursors such as total burned area which become observable only after an incident. Implications Understanding factors associated with both the natural system and the human system of decision-making that accompany high deployment fires supports holistic risk management given increasing simultaneity of ignitions and competition for resources for both fuel treatment and wildfire response. 

   more » « less
2. The Role of International Resource Sharing Arrangements in Managing Fire in the Face of Climate Change

   https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5040088  

   Bloem, Sunniva; Cullen, Alison C.; Mearns, Linda O.; Abatzoglou, John T. (August 2022, Fire)

   Changing global fire regimes including extended fire seasons due to climate change may increase the co-occurrence of high-impact fires that overwhelm national fire suppression capacities. These shifts increase the demand for international resource sharing to supplement national fire suppression efforts. In this paper, we explore the development and evaluate the effectiveness of international resource sharing arrangements of three regions: (1) The United States, Canada, and Australia (“Big Three”); (2) Europe; and (3) Southeast Asia by conducting a literature review of gray and peer- reviewed literature in combination with key informant interviews. For the “Big Three” and Europe, international resource sharing is perceived as necessary, effective, and continuously improving. Converging fire management processes and training and developing more effective administrative procedures facilitate these relationships. In Southeast Asia, political tensions and limited firefighting capacities have hampered effective cooperation. Formalized agreements of country-to-country support for fire management are nascent and evolving, and there is evidence that demand for expanding and improving these partnerships is increasing. 

   more » « less
3. High-severity wildfire potential – associating meteorology, climate, resource demand and wildfire activity with preparedness levels

   https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20066  

   Cullen, Alison C.; Axe, Travis; Podschwit, Harry (January 2021, International Journal of Wildland Fire)

   null (Ed.)

   National and regional preparedness level (PL) designations support decisions about wildfire risk management. Such decisions occur across the fire season and influence pre-positioning of resources in areas of greatest fire potential, recall of personnel from off-duty status, requests for back-up resources from other areas, responses to requests to share resources with other regions during fire events, and decisions about fuel treatment and risk reduction, such as prescribed burning. In this paper, we assess the association between PLs assigned at national and regional (Northwest) scales and a set of predictors including meteorological and climate variables, wildfire activity and the mobilisation and allocation levels of fire suppression resources. To better understand the implicit weighting applied to these factors in setting PLs, we discern the qualitative and quantitative factors associated with PL designations by statistical analysis of the historical record of PLs across a range of conditions. Our analysis constitutes an important step towards efforts to forecast PLs and to support the future projection and anticipation of firefighting resource demand, thereby aiding wildfire risk management, planning and preparedness. 

   more » « less
4. 50 Years of PMEL Tsunami Research and Development

   https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2023.208  

   Bernard, Eddie; Meinig, Christian; Titov, Vasily; Wei, Yong (January 2023, Oceanography)

   This article chronicles the 50-year history of tsunami research and development at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), beginning with the merger in 1973 of the Joint Tsunami Research Effort and PMEL. It traces the development of instrumentation and modeling that brought a better understanding of tsunamis and improved warning systems. The advantage of having observational engineering and flooding modeling under one roof are highlighted. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) research and development led to technology transfer to NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) that now operates and maintains 39 buoys and serves as real-time data distributor for other nations. This technology was also patented and licensed by PMEL to meet the needs of the international community. DART licensee Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) has manufactured over 60 buoys for eight different countries. DART data are essential for accurate tsunami warnings, so the global society benefits by receiving lifesaving information before the arrival of a tsunami. PMEL’s tsunami flooding modeling research led to technology transfer to NOAA’s tsunami warning centers, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and international tsunami preparedness communities. Short-term flooding modeling research was initiated at PMEL to improve NOAA tsunami warning operations to better serve US coastal communities. The same validated modeling technology was then applied to produce hazard maps for coastal communities in the United States and internationally through the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). Tsunami hazard maps are an essential first step in preparing a community for the next tsunami. Using these maps and other preparedness criteria, a community can become “Tsunami Ready” for the next event. Tsunami Ready has been adopted by the IOC as the global standard for preparedness of at-risk communities with total populations exceeding 890 million people. 

   more » « less
5. Quantifying increased groundwater demand from prolonged drought in the East African Rift Valley

   https://doi.org/j.scitotenv.2019.02.206  

   Thomas, Evan; Needoba, Joseph; Kaberia, Doris; Butterworth, John; Adams, Emily; Oduor, Phoebe; Macharia, Denis; Mitheu, Faith; Mugo, Robinson; Nagel, Corey (May 2019, Science of the total environment)

   Millions of people in the arid regions of Kenya and Ethiopia face water scarcity and frequent drought. Water resource forecasting and reliable operation of groundwater distribution systems may improve drought resilience. In this study, we examined three remote sensing data sets against in-situ sensor-collected groundwater extraction data from 221 water points serving over 1.34 million people across northern Kenya and Afar, Ethiopia between January 1, 2017 and August 31, 2018. In models containing rainfall as a binary variable, we observed an overall 23% increase in borehole runtime following weeks with no rainfall compared to weeks preceded by some rainfall. Further, a 1 mm increase in rainfall was associated with a 1% decrease in borehole use the following week. When surface water availability is reduced during the dry seasons, groundwater demand increases. Our findings emphasize the imperative to maintain functionality of groundwater boreholes in these regions which often suffer drought related emergencies. Funding provided by the United States Agency for International Development, the World Bank, the National Science Foundation, and the Cisco Foundation. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. 

   more » « less