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1. Trust and Security of Embedded Smart Devices in Advanced Logistics Systems

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS52267.2021.9483779  

   VanYe, C.M. ; Li, B.E. ; Koch, A.T. ; Luu, M.N. ; Adekunle, R.O ; Moghadasi, N. ; Collier, Z.A. ; Polmateer, T.L. ; Barnes, D. ; Slutzky, D. ; et al ( July 2021 , 2021 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS))

   null (Ed.)

   This paper addresses security and risk management of hardware and embedded systems across several applications. There are three companies involved in the research. First is an energy technology company that aims to leverage electric- vehicle batteries through vehicle to grid (V2G) services in order to provide energy storage for electric grids. Second is a defense contracting company that provides acquisition support for the DOD's conventional prompt global strike program (CPGS). These systems need protections in their production and supply chains, as well as throughout their system life cycles. Third is a company that deals with trust and security in advanced logistics systems generally. The rise of interconnected devices has led to growth in systems security issues such as privacy, authentication, and secure storage of data. A risk analysis via scenario-based preferences is aided by a literature review and industry experts. The analysis is divided into various sections of Criteria, Initiatives, C-I Assessment, Emergent Conditions (EC), Criteria-Scenario (C-S) relevance and EC Grouping. System success criteria, research initiatives, and risks to the system are compiled. In the C-I Assessment, a rating is assigned to signify the degree to which criteria are addressed by initiatives, including research and development, government programs, industry resources, security countermeasures, education and training, etc. To understand risks of emergent conditions, a list of Potential Scenarios is developed across innovations, environments, missions, populations and workforce behaviors, obsolescence, adversaries, etc. The C-S Relevance rates how the scenarios affect the relevance of the success criteria, including cost, schedule, security, return on investment, and cascading effects. The Emergent Condition Grouping (ECG) collates the emergent conditions with the scenarios. The generated results focus on ranking Initiatives based on their ability to negate the effects of Emergent Conditions, as well as producing a disruption score to compare a Potential Scenario's impacts to the ranking of Initiatives. The results presented in this paper are applicable to the testing and evaluation of security and risk for a variety of embedded smart devices and should be of interest to developers, owners, and operators of critical infrastructure systems. 

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2. Sixfold Increase in Historical Northern Hemisphere Concurrent Large Heatwaves Driven by Warming and Changing Atmospheric Circulations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0200.1  

   ( February 2022 , Journal of Climate)

   Simultaneous heatwaves affecting multiple regions (referred to as concurrent heatwaves) pose compounding threats to various natural and societal systems, including global food chains, emergency response systems, and reinsurance industries. While anthropogenic climate change is increasing heatwave risks across most regions, the interactions between warming and circulation changes that yield concurrent heatwaves remain understudied. Here, we quantify historical (1979–2019) trends in concurrent heatwaves during the warm season [May–September (MJJAS)] across the Northern Hemisphere mid- to high latitudes. We find a significant increase of ∼46% in the mean spatial extent of concurrent heatwaves and ∼17% increase in their maximum intensity, and an approximately sixfold increase in their frequency. Using self-organizing maps, we identify large-scale circulation patterns (300 hPa) associated with specific concurrent heatwave configurations across Northern Hemisphere regions. We show that observed changes in the frequency of specific circulation patterns preferentially increase the risk of concurrent heatwaves across particular regions. Patterns linking concurrent heatwaves across eastern North America, eastern and northern Europe, parts of Asia, and the Barents and Kara Seas show the largest increases in frequency (∼5.9 additional days per decade). We also quantify the relative contributions of circulation pattern changes and warming to overall observed concurrent heatwave day frequency trends. While warming has a predominant and positive influence on increasing concurrent heatwave frequency, circulation pattern changes have a varying influence and account for up to 0.8 additional concurrent heatwave days per decade. Identifying regions with an elevated risk of concurrent heatwaves and understanding their drivers is indispensable for evaluating projected climate risks on interconnected societal systems and fostering regional preparedness in a changing climate.

   Heatwaves pose a major threat to human health, ecosystems, and human systems. Simultaneous heatwaves affecting multiple regions can exacerbate such threats. For example, multiple food-producing regions simultaneously undergoing heat-related crop damage could drive global food shortages. We assess recent changes in the occurrence of simultaneous large heatwaves. Such simultaneous heatwaves are 7 times more likely now than 40 years ago. They are also hotter and affect a larger area. Their increasing occurrence is mainly driven by warming baseline temperatures due to global heating, but changes in weather patterns contribute to disproportionate increases over parts of Europe, the eastern United States, and Asia. Better understanding the drivers of weather pattern changes is therefore important for understanding future concurrent heatwave characteristics and their impacts.

    

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3. Governing the gaps in water governance and land-use planning in a megacity: The example of hydrological risk in Mexico City

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.06.009  

   Lerner, Amy M. ; Eakin, Hallie C. ; Tellman, Elizabeth ; Bausch, Julia Chrissie ; Hernández Aguilar, Bertha ( January 2018 , Cities)

   Megacities are socio-ecological systems (SES) that encompass complex interactions between residents, institutions, and natural resource management. These interactions are exacerbated by climate change as resources such as water become scarce or hazardous through drought and flooding. In order to develop pathways for improved sustainability, the disparate factors that create vulnerable conditions and outcomes must be visible to decision-makers. Nevertheless, for such decision-makers to manage vulnerability effectively, they need to define the salient boundaries of the urban SES, and the relevant biophysical, technological, and socio-institutional attributes that play critical roles in vulnerability dynamics. Here we explore the problem of hydrological risk in Mexico City, where vulnerabilities to flooding and water scarcity are interconnected temporally and spatially, yet the formal and informal institutions and actors involved in the production and management of vulnerability are divided into two discrete problem domains: land-use planning and water resource management. We analyze interviews with city officials working in both domains to understand their different perspectives on the dynamics of socio-hydrological risk, including flooding and water scarcity. We find governance gaps within land-use planning and water management that lead to hydro-social risk, stemming from a failure to address informal institutions that exacerbate vulnerability to flooding and water scarcity. Mandates in both sectors are overlapping and confusing, while socio-hydrological risk is externalized to the informal domain, making it ungoverned. Integrated water management approaches that recognize and incorporate informality are needed to reduce vulnerability to water scarcity and flooding. 

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4. Hazardous Weather Prediction and Communication in the Modern Information Environment

   https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0058.1  

   Morss, Rebecca E. ; Demuth, Julie L. ; Lazrus, Heather ; Palen, Leysia ; Barton, C. Michael ; Davis, Christopher A. ; Snyder, Chris ; Wilhelmi, Olga V. ; Anderson, Kenneth M. ; Ahijevych, David A. ; et al ( December 2017 , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)

   Abstract During the last few decades, scientific capabilities for understanding and predicting weather and climate risks have advanced rapidly. At the same time, technological advances, such as the Internet, mobile devices, and social media, are transforming how people exchange and interact with information. In this modern information environment, risk communication, interpretation, and decision-making are rapidly evolving processes that intersect across space, time, and society. Instead of a linear or iterative process in which individual members of the public assess and respond to distinct pieces of weather forecast or warning information, this article conceives of weather prediction, communication, and decision-making as an interconnected dynamic system. In this expanded framework, information and uncertainty evolve in conjunction with people’s risk perceptions, vulnerabilities, and decisions as a hazardous weather threat approaches; these processes are intertwined with evolving social interactions in the physical and digital worlds. Along with the framework, the article presents two interdisciplinary research approaches for advancing the understanding of this complex system and the processes within it: analysis of social media streams and computational natural–human system modeling. Examples from ongoing research are used to demonstrate these approaches and illustrate the types of new insights they can reveal. This expanded perspective together with research approaches, such as those introduced, can help researchers and practitioners understand and improve the creation and communication of information in atmospheric science and other fields. 

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5. From remotely‐sensed solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence to ecosystem structure, function, and service: Part II—Harnessing data

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16646  

   Sun, Ying ; Wen, Jiaming ; Gu, Lianhong ; Joiner, Joanna ; Chang, Christine Y. ; van der Tol, Christiaan ; Porcar‐Castell, Albert ; Magney, Troy ; Wang, Lixin ; Hu, Leiqiu ; et al ( March 2023 , Global Change Biology)

   Although our observing capabilities of solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) have been growing rapidly, the quality and consistency of SIF datasets are still in an active stage of research and development. As a result, there are considerable inconsistencies among diverse SIF datasets at all scales and the widespread applications of them have led to contradictory findings. The present review is the second of the two companion reviews, and data oriented. It aims to (1) synthesize the variety, scale, and uncertainty of existing SIF datasets, (2) synthesize the diverse applications in the sector of ecology, agriculture, hydrology, climate, and socioeconomics, and (3) clarify how such data inconsistency superimposed with the theoretical complexities laid out in (Sun et al., 2023) may impact process interpretation of various applications and contribute to inconsistent findings. We emphasize that accurate interpretation of the functional relationships between SIF and other ecological indicators is contingent upon complete understanding of SIF data quality and uncertainty. Biases and uncertainties in SIF observations can significantly confound interpretation of their relationships and how such relationships respond to environmental variations. Built upon our syntheses, we summarize existing gaps and uncertainties in current SIF observations. Further, we offer our perspectives on innovations needed to help improve informing ecosystem structure, function, and service under climate change, including enhancing in‐situ SIF observing capability especially in “data desert” regions, improving cross‐instrument data standardization and network coordination, and advancing applications by fully harnessing theory and data.

    

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