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Synopsis Climate resilience, a focus of many recent studies, has been examined from ecological, physiological, and evolutionary perspectives. However, sampling biases toward adults, males, and certain species have made establishing the link between environmental change and population-level change problematic. Here, we used data from four laboratory studies, in which we administered pre- and postnatal stressors, such as suboptimal incubation temperature, heat stress, and food restriction, to zebra finches. We then quantified hatching success, posthatch survival, and reproductive success, to parameterize age-structured population dynamics models with the goal of estimating the effect of the stressors on relative population growth rates. Using the same model structure, we tested the hypothesis that early life stages influence population growth rate more than later life stages. Our models suggested that stressful events during embryonic development, such as suboptimal incubation temperatures and reduced gas exchange for the embryos, have a greater total impact on population growth than posthatch stressors, such as heat stress and food restriction. However, among life history traits, differences in hatching success and sex ratio of offspring in response to stressors changed population growth rates more than differences in any other demographic rate estimates. These results suggest that when predicting population resilience against climate change, it is critical to account for effects of climate change on all life stages, including early stages of life, and to incorporate individuals’ physiology and stress tolerance that likely influence future stress responses, reproduction, and survival.
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Abalone populations are most sensitive to environmental stress effects on adult individuals
Marine organisms are exposed to stressors associated with climate change throughout their life cycle, but a majority of studies focus on responses in single life stages, typically early ones. Here, we examined how negative impacts from stressors associated with climate change, ocean acidification, and pollution can act across multiple life stages to influence long-term population dynamics and decrease resilience to mass mortality events. We used a continuous-size-structured density-dependent model for abalone ( Haliotis spp.), calcifying mollusks that support valuable fisheries, to explore the sensitivity of stock abundance and annual catch to potential changes in growth, survival, and fecundity across the organism’s lifespan. Our model predicts that decreased recruitment from lowered fertilization success or larval survival has small negative impacts on the population, and that stock size and fishery performance are much more sensitive to changes in parameters that affect the size or survival of adults. Sensitivity to impacts on subadults and juveniles is also important for the population, though less so than for adults. Importantly, likelihood of recovery following mortality events showed more pronounced sensitivity to most possible parameter impacts, greater than the effects on equilibrium density or catch. Our results suggest that future experiments on environmental stressors should focus on multiple life stages to capture effects on population structure and dynamics, particularly for species with size-dependent fecundity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1736830
- PAR ID:
- 10298204
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Marine Ecology Progress Series
- Volume:
- 643
- ISSN:
- 0171-8630
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 75 to 85
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13320
