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1. See the Light: Modeling Solar Performance using Multispectral Satellite Data

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3408308.3427610  

   Singh Bansal, Akansha; Irwin, David (November 2020, Proceedings of the 7th ACM International Conference on Systems for Energy-Efficient Buildings, Cities, and Transportation (BuildSys))

   null (Ed.)

   Developing accurate solar performance models, which infer solar output from widely available external data sources, is increasingly important as the grid's solar capacity rises. These models are important for a wide range of solar analytics, including solar forecasting, resource estimation, and fault detection. The most significant error in existing models is inaccurate estimates of clouds' effect on solar output, as cloud formations and their impact on solar radiation are highly complex. In 2018 and 2019, respectively, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. began releasing multispectral data comprising 16 different light wavelengths (or channels) from the GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites every 5 minutes. Enough channel data is now available to learn solar performance models using machine learning (ML). In this paper, we show how to develop both local and global solar performance models using ML on multispectral data, and compare their accuracy to existing physical models based on ground-level weather readings and on NOAA's estimates of downward shortwave radiation (DSR), which also derive from multispectral data but using a physical model. We show that ML-based solar performance models based on multispectral data are much more accurate than weather- or DSR-based models, improving the average MAPE across 29 solar sites by over 50% for local models and 25% for global models. 

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2. Surface Flux Equilibrium Theory‐Derived Evapotranspiration Estimate Outperforms ECOSTRESS, MODIS, and SSEBop Products

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114822  

   Thakur, Hitesh; Raghav, Pushpendra; Kumar, Mukesh; Wolkeba, Fitsume (May 2025, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical process influencing energy, water, and carbon cycles. Numerous methods have been developed to estimate ET accurately and robustly across diverse scales. Many of these methods are constrained by reliance on remote sensing data, which is prone to gaps, or by the need for model calibration and training. This study evaluates the performance of the calibration‐free surface flux equilibrium theory (SFET) for ET estimation at 33 Ameriflux sites in the continental USA. SFET‐derived ET estimates are intercompared with widely used continental remote sensing products, including ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and SSEBop. Results indicate that SFET consistently outperforms these ET products. SFET's performance is found to be better under wet conditions and clear skies, with reduced accuracy under arid and high evaporative stress conditions. Overall, SFET exhibits significant potential for providing accurate, continuous, long‐term ET estimates, paving the way for operational application in uninstrumented regions over large scales. 

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3. High-Frequency Mapping of Downward Shortwave Radiation From GOES-R Using Gradient Boosting

   https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3420148  

   Ranjbar, Sadegh; Losos, Danielle; Hoffman, Sophie; Stoy, Paul C (January 2024, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing)

   This study investigates high-frequency mapping of downward shortwave radiation (DSR) at the Earth’s surface using the advanced baseline imager (ABI) instrument mounted on Geo- stationary Operational Environmental Satellite—R Series (GOES- R). The existing GOES-R DSR product (DSRABI) offers hourly temporal resolution and spatial resolution of 0.25°. To enhance these resolutions, we explore machine learning (ML) for DSR estimation at the native temporal resolution of GOES-R Level-2 cloud and moisture imagery product (5 min) and its native spatial resolution of 2 km at nadir. We compared four common ML regres- sion models through the leave-one-out cross-validation algorithm for robust model assessment against ground measurements from AmeriFlux and SURFRAD networks. Results show that gradient boosting regression (GBR) achieves the best performance (R2 = 0.916, RMSE = 88.05 W·m−2) with more efficient computation compared to long short-term memory, which exhibited similar performance. DSR estimates from the GBR model through the ABI live imaging of vegetated ecosystems workflow (DSRALIVE) outperform DSRABI across various temporal resolutions and sky conditions. DSRALIVE agreement with ground measurements at SURFRAD networks exhibits high accuracy at high temporal res- olutions (5-min intervals) with R2 exceeding 0.85 and RMSE = 122 W·m−2 . We conclude that GBR offers a promising approach for high-frequency DSR mapping from GOES-R, enabling improved applications for near-real-time monitoring of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes. 

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4. DeepSnow: Modeling the Impact of Snow on Solar Generation

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3408308.3427620  

   Bashir, Noman; Irwin, David; Shenoy, Prashant (November 2020, Proceedings of the 7th ACM International Conference on Systems for Energy-Efficient Buildings, Cities, and Transportation (BuildSys))

   null (Ed.)

   The falling cost of solar energy deployments has resulted in ever-increasing growth in solar capacity worldwide. The primary challenge posed by increasing grid-tied solar capacity is handling its variability due to continuously changing conditions. Thus, prior work has developed highly sophisticated models to estimate and forecast solar power output based on many characteristics, including location, elevation, time, weather, shading, module type, wiring, etc. These models are highly accurate for estimating solar power, especially over long periods, for sites at low latitudes, i.e., closer to the equator. However, models for sites at higher latitudes are less accurate due to the effect of snow on solar output, since even a small amount of snow can cover panels and reduce power to zero. Improving the accuracy of these models for annual solar output by even 2--3% is significant, as power translates directly into revenue, which compounds over the system's lifetime. Thus, if a site produces 2--3% less power on average per year due to snow than a model predicts, it can mean the difference between a positive or negative return-on-investment. To address the problem, we develop DeepSnow, a data-driven approach that models the effect of snow on solar power generation. DeepSnow integrates with existing solar modeling frameworks, and uses publicly available snow data to learn its effect on solar generation. We leverage deep learning to quantify the effect of different snow variables on solar power using 4 million hourly readings from 40 solar sites. We evaluate our approach on 10 solar sites, and show that it yields a higher accuracy than the current approach for modeling snow effects used by the U.S. Department of Energy's System Advisor Model (SAM), a popular solar modeling framework. 

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5. Hour-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units

   https://doi.org/10.3390/en12214055  

   Wojtkiewicz, Jessica; Hosseini, Matin; Gottumukkala, Raju; Chambers, Terrence Lynn (November 2019, Energies)

   Variation in solar irradiance causes power generation fluctuations in solar power plants. Power grid operators need accurate irradiance forecasts to manage this variability. Many factors affect irradiance, including the time of year, weather and time of day. Cloud cover is one of the most important variables that affects solar power generation, but is also characterized by a high degree of variability and uncertainty. Deep learning methods have the ability to learn long-term dependencies within sequential data. We investigate the application of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to forecast solar irradiance and present the results of applying multivariate GRU to forecast hourly solar irradiance in Phoenix, Arizona. We compare and evaluate the performance of GRU against Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) using strictly historical solar irradiance data as well as the addition of exogenous weather variables and cloud cover data. Based on our results, we found that the addition of exogenous weather variables and cloud cover data in both GRU and LSTM significantly improved forecasting accuracy, performing better than univariate and statistical models. 

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