Due to the potentially significant benefits for society, forecasting spatio-temporal societal events is currently attracting considerable attention from researchers. Beyond merely predicting the occurrence of future events, practitioners are now looking for information about specific subtypes of future events in order to allocate appropriate amounts and types of resources to manage such events and any associated social risks. However, forecasting event subtypes is far more complex than merely extending binary prediction to cover multiple classes, as 1) different locations require different models to handle their characteristic event subtype patterns due to spatial heterogeneity; 2) historically, many locations have only experienced a incomplete set of event subtypes, thus limiting the local model’s ability to predict previously “unseen” subtypes; and 3) the subtle discrepancy among different event subtypes requires more discriminative and profound representations of societal events. In order to address all these challenges concurrently, we propose a Spatial Incomplete Multi-task Deep leArning (SIMDA) framework that is capable of effectively forecasting the subtypes of future events. The new framework formulates spatial locations into tasks to handle spatial heterogeneity in event subtypes, and learns a joint deep representation of subtypes across tasks. Furthermore, based on the “first law of geography”, spatiallyclosed tasks share similar event subtype patterns such that adjacent tasks can share knowledge with each other effectively. Optimizing the proposed model amounts to a new nonconvex and strongly-coupled problem, we propose a new algorithm based on Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) that can decompose the complex problem into subproblems that can be solved efficiently. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.
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Empowering Variational Inference with Predictive Features: Application to Disease Suptypying
Probabilistic topic models, have been widely deployed for various applications such as
learning disease or tissue subtypes. Yet, learning the parameters of such models is usually
an ill-posed problem and may result in losing valuable information about disease severity.
A common approach is to add a discriminative loss term to the generative model’s loss in
order to learn a representation that is also predictive of disease severity. However, finding
a balance between these two losses is not straightforward. We propose an alternative way
in this paper. We develop a framework which allows for incorporating external covariates
into the generative model’s approximate posterior. These covariates can have more discriminative power for disease severity compared to the representation that we extract from the posterior distribution. For instance, they can be features extracted from a neural network which predicts disease severity from CT images. Effectively, we enforce the generative model’s approximate posterior to reside in the subspace of these discriminative covariates. We illustrate our method’s application on a large-scale lung CT study of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), a highly heterogeneous disease. We aim at identifying tissue subtypes by using a variant of topic model as a generative model. We quantitatively evaluate the predictive performance of the inferred subtypes and demonstrate that our method outperforms or performs on par with some reasonable baselines. We also show that some of the discovered subtypes are correlated with genetic measurements, suggesting that the identified subtypes may characterize the disease’s underlying etiology.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1839332
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10299286
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of Machine Learning Research
- Issue:
- 149
- ISSN:
- 2640-3498
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1–19
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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null (Ed.)Purpose: To develop and evaluate a deep learning (DL) approach to extract rich information from high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: We develop a DL-based model to learn a compact representation of a subject, which is predictive of COPD physiologic severity and other outcomes. Our DL model learned: (a) to extract informative regional image features from HRCT; (b) to adaptively weight these features and form an aggregate patient representation; and finally, (c) to predict several COPD outcomes. The adaptive weights correspond to the regional lung contribution to the disease. We evaluate the model on 10 300 participants from the COPDGene cohort. Results: Our model was strongly predictive of spirometric obstruction ( r2 = 0.67) and grouped 65.4% of subjects correctly and 89.1% within one stage of their GOLD severity stage. Our model achieved an accuracy of 41.7% and 52.8% in stratifying the population-based on centrilobular (5-grade) and paraseptal (3-grade) emphysema severity score, respectively. For predicting future exacerbation, combining subjects' representations from our model with their past exacerbation histories achieved an accuracy of 80.8% (area under the ROC curve of 0.73). For all-cause mortality, in Cox regression analysis, we outperformed the BODE index improving the concordance metric (ours: 0.61 vs BODE: 0.56). Conclusions: Our model independently predicted spirometric obstruction, emphysema severity, exacerbation risk, and mortality from CT imaging alone. This method has potential applicability in both research and clinical practice.more » « less
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Introduction: Computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging requires injection of an intravenous contrast agent and increased exposure to ionizing radiation. This process can be lengthy, costly, and potentially dangerous to patients, especially in emergency settings. We propose MAGIC, a multitask, generative adversarial network-based deep learning model to synthesize an entire CTP series from only a non-contrasted CT (NCCT) input. Materials and Methods: NCCT and CTP series were retrospectively retrieved from 493 patients at UF Health with IRB approval. The data were deidentified and all images were resized to 256x256 pixels. The collected perfusion data were analyzed using the RapidAI CT Perfusion analysis software (iSchemaView, Inc. CA) to generate each CTP map. For each subject, 10 CTP slices were selected. Each slice was paired with one NCCT slice at the same location and two NCCT slices at a predefined vertical offset, resulting in 4.3K CTP images and 12.9K NCCT images used for training. The incorporation of a spatial offset into the NCCT input allows MAGIC to more accurately synthesize cerebral perfusive structures, increasing the quality of the generated images. The studies included a variety of indications, including healthy tissue, mild infarction, and severe infarction. The proposed MAGIC model incorporates a novel multitask architecture, allowing for the simultaneous synthesis of four CTP modalities: mean transit time (MTT), cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), and time to peak (TTP). We propose a novel Physicians-in-the-loop module in the model's architecture, acting as a tunable layer that allows physicians to manually adjust the amount of anatomic detail present in the synthesized CTP series. Additionally, we propose two novel loss terms: multi-modal connectivity loss and extrema loss. The multi-modal connectivity loss leverages the multi-task nature to assert that the mathematical relationship between MTT, CBF, and CBV is satisfied. The extrema loss aids in learning regions of elevated and decreased activity in each modality, allowing for MAGIC to accurately learn the characteristics of diagnostic regions of interest. Corresponding NCCT and CTP slices were paired along the vertical axis. The model was trained for 100 epochs on a NVIDIA TITAN X GPU. Results and Discussion: The MAGIC model’s performance was evaluated on a sample of 40 patients from the UF Health dataset. Across all CTP modalities, MAGIC was able to accurately produce images with high structural agreement between the entire synthesized and clinical perfusion images (SSIMmean=0.801 , UQImean=0.926). MAGIC was able to synthesize CTP images to accurately characterize cerebral circulatory structures and identify regions of infarct tissue, as shown in Figure 1. A blind binary evaluation was conducted to assess the presence of cerebral infarction in both the synthesized and clinical perfusion images, resulting in the synthesized images correctly predicting the presence of cerebral infarction with 87.5% accuracy. Conclusions: We proposed a MAGIC model whose novel deep learning structures and loss terms enable high-quality synthesis of CTP maps and characterization of circulatory structures solely from NCCT images, potentially eliminating the requirement for the injection of an intravenous contrast agent and elevated radiation exposure during perfusion imaging. This makes MAGIC a beneficial tool in a clinical scenario increasing the overall safety, accessibility, and efficiency of cerebral perfusion and facilitating better patient outcomes. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation, IIS-1908299 III: Small: Modeling Multi-Level Connectivity of Brain Dynamics + REU Supplement, to the University of Florida.more » « less
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Summary Posterior distributions for the joint projections of future temperature and precipitation trends and changes are derived by applying a Bayesian hierachical model to a rich data set of simulated climate from general circulation models. The simulations that are analysed here constitute the future projections on which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based its recent summary report on the future of our planet’s climate, albeit without any sophisticated statistical handling of the data. Here we quantify the uncertainty that is represented by the variable results of the various models and their limited ability to represent the observed climate both at global and at regional scales. We do so in a Bayesian framework, by estimating posterior distributions of the climate change signals in terms of trends or differences between future and current periods, and we fully characterize the uncertain nature of a suite of other parameters, like biases, correlation terms and model-specific precisions. Besides presenting our results in terms of posterior distributions of the climate signals, we offer as an alternative representation of the uncertainties in climate change projections the use of the posterior predictive distribution of a new model’s projections. The results from our analysis can find straightforward applications in impact studies, which necessitate not only best guesses but also a full representation of the uncertainty in climate change projections. For water resource and crop models, for example, it is vital to use joint projections of temperature and precipitation to represent the characteristics of future climate best, and our statistical analysis delivers just that.
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
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