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Abstract Study ObjectivesExamine the ability of a physiologically based mathematical model of human circadian rhythms to predict circadian phase, as measured by salivary dim light melatonin onset (DLMO), in children compared to other proxy measurements of circadian phase (bedtime, sleep midpoint, and wake time). MethodsAs part of an ongoing clinical trial, a sample of 29 elementary school children (mean age: 7.4 ± .97 years) completed 7 days of wrist actigraphy before a lab visit to assess DLMO. Hourly salivary melatonin samples were collected under dim light conditions (<5 lx). Data from actigraphy were used to generate predictions of circadian phase using both a physiologically based circadian limit cycle oscillator mathematical model (Hannay model), and published regression equations that utilize average sleep onset, midpoint, and offset to predict DLMO. Agreement of proxy predictions with measured DLMO were assessed and compared. ResultsDLMO predictions using the Hannay model outperformed DLMO predictions based on children’s sleep/wake parameters with a Lin’s Concordance Correlation Coefficient (LinCCC) of 0.79 compared to 0.41–0.59 for sleep/wake parameters. The mean absolute error was 31 min for the Hannay model compared to 35–38 min for the sleep/wake variables. ConclusionOur findings suggest that sleep/wake behaviors were weak proxies of DLMO phase in children, but mathematical models using data collected from wearable data can be used to improve the accuracy of those predictions. Additional research is needed to better adapt these adult models for use in children. Clinical TrialThe i Heart Rhythm Project: Healthy Sleep and Behavioral Rhythms for Obesity Prevention https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04445740.
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Predicting circadian phase across populations: a comparison of mathematical models and wearable devices
Abstract From smart work scheduling to optimal drug timing, there is enormous potential in translating circadian rhythms research results for precision medicine in the real world. However, the pursuit of such effort requires the ability to accurately estimate circadian phase outside of the laboratory. One approach is to predict circadian phase noninvasively using light and activity measurements and mathematical models of the human circadian clock. Most mathematical models take light as an input and predict the effect of light on the human circadian system. However, consumer-grade wearables that are already owned by millions of individuals record activity instead of light, which prompts an evaluation of the accuracy of predicting circadian phase using motion alone. Here, we evaluate the ability of four different models of the human circadian clock to estimate circadian phase from data acquired by wrist-worn wearable devices. Multiple datasets across populations with varying degrees of circadian disruption were used for generalizability. Though the models we test yield similar predictions, analysis of data from 27 shift workers with high levels of circadian disruption shows that activity, which is recorded in almost every wearable device, is better at predicting circadian phase than measured light levels from wrist-worn devices when processed by mathematical models. In those living under normal living conditions, circadian phase can typically be predicted to within 1 h, even with data from a widely available commercial device (the Apple Watch). These results show that circadian phase can be predicted using existing data passively collected by millions of individuals with comparable accuracy to much more invasive and expensive methods.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1714094
- PAR ID:
- 10300246
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Sleep
- Volume:
- 44
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 0161-8105
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/sleep/zsab126
