Abstract Urbanization and competing water demand, as well as rising temperatures and changing weather patterns, are manifesting as gradual processes that increasingly challenge urban water supply security. Cities are also threatened by acute risks arising at the intersection of aging infrastructure, entrenched institutions, and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events. To better understand these multi-layered, interacting challenges of providing urban water supply for all, while being prepared to deal with recurring shocks, we present an integrated analysis of water supply security in New York City and its resilience to acute shocks and chronic disturbances. We apply a revised version of a recently developed, quantitative framework (‘Capital Portfolio Approach’, CPA) that takes a social-ecological-technological systems perspective to assess urban water supply security as the performance of water services at the household scale. Using the parameters of the CPA as input, we use a coupled systems dynamics model to investigate the dynamics of services in response to shocks—under current conditions and in a scenario of increasing shock occurrence and a loss of system robustness. We find water supply security to be high and current response to shocks to be resilient thanks to past shock experiences. However, we identify a number of risks and vulnerability issues that, if unaddressed, might significantly impact the city’s water services in the mid-term future. Our findings have relevance to cities around the world, and raise questions for research about how security and resilience can and should be maintained in the future.
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Eco-Hydrology and Hydraulics of Urban Watersheds—A Resilience Approach
Urban water system managers face a set of interrelated water security challenges as they pursue the goals of sustainable sources of water, mitigating flood hazards, and improving water quality. These challenges are often subject to change (and hence highly uncertain) due to the coupled effects of hydro-climatic variability, socio-economic trends, and regulatory reforms. To meet these intersecting goals, we present a mechanistic framework with illustrative examples that evaluates an urban water system’s resilience under future uncertainty. By employing principles from engineering design, ecosystem science, and social equity studies, our resilient urban water systems (ReUWS) framework explores the potential of effectively combining green and gray infrastructure (GGI) in an urban watershed while prioritizing stakeholder and community engagement throughout the lifecycle of water system projects. A nested set of hydrology, ecosystem, and hydraulic models are developed with data flow among them defining the boundary and initial conditions for each other. An example is shown with the Baltimore water system on an approach to evaluate the effects of GGI hybrids on major water security metrics. The corresponding engineering designs, ecosystem service potentials, and measures of equitable access to services are also analyzed using the framework. The results evaluate performance of the existing systems under future conditions and also compare different GGI-based strategies for improving resilience in urban water systems. The findings of the study help to evaluate the potential for using GGI strategies to cope with changing climate extremes and other environmental factors as well as social change. Trade-offs derived from the case studies also can be used to adjust local/regional policies and regulations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1855277
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10300992
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2021
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 741 to 753
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Both the ecological and social dimensions of fisheries are being affected by climate change. As a result, policymakers, managers, scientists and fishing communities are seeking guidance on how to holistically build resilience to climate change. Numerous studies have highlighted key attributes of resilience in fisheries, yet concrete examples that explicitly link these attributes to social‐ecological outcomes are lacking. To better understand climate resilience, we assembled 18 case studies spanning ecological, socio‐economic, governance and geographic contexts. Using a novel framework for evaluating 38 resilience attributes, the case studies were systematically assessed to understand how attributes enable or inhibit resilience to a given climate stressor. We found population abundance, learning capacity, and responsive governance were the most important attributes for conferring resilience, with ecosystem connectivity, place attachment, and accountable governance scoring the strongest across the climate‐resilient fisheries. We used these responses to develop an attribute typology that describes robust sources of resilience, actionable priority attributes and attributes that are case specific or require research. We identified five fishery archetypes to guide stakeholders as they set long‐term goals and prioritize actions to improve resilience. Lastly, we found evidence for two pathways to resilience: (1) building ecological assets and strengthening communities, which we observed in rural and small‐scale fisheries, and (2) building economic assets and improving effective governance, which was demonstrated in urban and wealthy fisheries. Our synthesis presents a novel framework that can be directly applied to identify approaches, pathways and actionable levers for improving climate resilience in fishery systems.
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null (Ed.)Most people in the world live in urban areas, and their high population densities, heavy reliance on external sources of food, energy, and water, and disproportionately large waste production result in severe and cumulative negative environmental effects. Integrated study of urban areas requires a system-of-systems analytical framework that includes modeling with social and biophysical data. We describe preliminary work toward an integrated urban food-energy-water systems (FEWS) analysis using co-simulation for assessment of current and future conditions, with an emphasis on local (urban and urban-adjacent) food production. We create a framework to enable simultaneous analyses of climate dynamics, changes in land cover, built forms, energy use, and environmental outcomes associated with a set of drivers of system change related to policy, crop management, technology, social interaction, and market forces affecting food production. The ultimate goal of our research program is to enhance understanding of the urban FEWS nexus so as to improve system function and management, increase resilience, and enhance sustainability. Our approach involves data-driven co-simulation to enable coupling of disparate food, energy and water simulation models across a range of spatial and temporal scales. When complete, these models will quantify energy use and water quality outcomes for current systems, and determine if undesirable environmental effects are decreased and local food supply is increased with different configurations of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in urban and urban-adjacent areas. The effort emphasizes use of open-source simulation models and expert knowledge to guide modeling for individual and combined systems in the urban FEWS nexus.more » « less
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Natural infrastructure (NI) and nature-based solutions in urban riverscapes can provide a spectrum of environmental, societal, and economic benefits, but widespread implementation of NI strategies remain limited because of their context-dependent nature. Windows of opportunity have opened through legislation and funding to expand NI solutions that address flooding, water quality, air pollution, extreme heat, and environmental equity. System-level approaches may offer these projects a framework that is flexible yet holistic enough to streamline implementation. In fact, a systems approach is essential to realize the potential of NI for equitably achieving these goals, and a critical step includes identification of vulnerabilities (e.g., exposure to environmental harm). The purpose of this study was to support decision makers and managers in prioritizing their urban riverscapes with multiple vulnerabilities: flood risk, water quality, ecosystem function, and environmental inequity. We conducted an urban stream spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) case study with Charlotte–Mecklenburg Storm Water Services to support equitable and efficient stream reach, floodplain, and watershed planning. Our study assessed the social and ecological characteristics of the system and prioritized vulnerable watersheds and subbasins using a spatial MCDA. We developed an urban stream prioritization framework that could be tailored to complement existing management strategies and also more broadly implemented in other social–ecological systems.more » « less
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Abstract The security, resilience, and sustainability of urban water supply systems (UWSS) are challenged by global change pressures, including climate and land use changes, rapid urbanization, and population growth. Building on prior work on UWSS security and resilience, we quantify the sustainability of UWSS based on the performance of local sustainable governance and the size of global water and ecological footprints. We develop a new framework that integrates security, resilience, and sustainability to investigate trade-offs between these three distinct and inter-related dimensions. Security refers to the level of services, resilience is the system’s ability to respond to and recover from shocks, and sustainability refers to local and global impacts, and to the long-term viability of system services. Security and resilience are both relevant at local scale (city and surroundings), while for sustainability cross-scale and -sectoral feedbacks are important. We apply the new framework to seven cities selected from diverse hydro-climatic and socio-economic settings on four continents. We find that UWSS security, resilience, and local sustainability coevolve, while global sustainability correlates negatively with security. Approaching these interdependent goals requires governance strategies that balance the three dimensions within desirable and viable operating spaces. Cities outside these boundaries risk system failure in the short-term, due to lack of security and resilience, or face long-term consequences of unsustainable governance strategies. We discuss these risks in the context of poverty and rigidity traps. Our findings have strong implications for policy-making, strategic management, and for designing systems to operate sustainably at local and global scales.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483466.068
