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1. Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019  

   Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Lindsay, Keith ; Long, Matthew C. ( January 2019 , Earth System Dynamics)

   Abstract. Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) impactthe global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest thatthese variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decadein advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-termpredictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO₂ flux on global andregional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadalforecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential topredict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO₂flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of theforecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO₂ flux evolution. Thispotential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge ofvariations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with thelongest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean andthe northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO₂ fluxvariations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partialpressure of CO₂, which itself is a function of predictability in surfaceocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potentialpredictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated bythe moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with anobservationally based CO₂ flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggestthat year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to bepredicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–seaCO₂ flux in the near future.

    

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2. Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006531  

   Krumhardt, K. M. ; Lovenduski, N. S. ; Long, M. C. ; Luo, J. Y. ; Lindsay, K. ; Yeager, S. ; Harrison, C. ( June 2020 , Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near‐term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel set of initialized retrospective decadal forecasts from an Earth System Model. Interannual variations in marine NPP are potentially predictable in many areas of the ocean 1 to 3 years in advance, from temperate waters to the tropics, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. However, some regions, such as the subpolar Southern Ocean, show low potential predictability. We analyze how bottom‐up drivers of marine NPP (nutrients, light, and temperature) contribute to its predictability. Regions where NPP is primarily driven by the physical supply of nutrients (e.g., subtropics) retain higher potential predictability than high‐latitude regions where NPP is controlled by light and/or temperature (e.g., the Southern Ocean). We further examine NPP predictability in the world's Large Marine Ecosystems. With a few exceptions, we show that initialized forecasts improve potential predictability of NPP in Large Marine Ecosystems over a persistence forecast and may aid to manage living marine resources.

    

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3. Interannual and Seasonal Drivers of Carbon Cycle Variability Represented by the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007034  

   Wieder, William R. ; Butterfield, Zachary ; Lindsay, Keith ; Lombardozzi, Danica L. ; Keppel‐Aleks, Gretchen ( September 2021 , Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Earth system models are intended to make long‐term projections, but they can be evaluated at interannual and seasonal time scales. Although the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) showed improvements in a number of terrestrial carbon cycle benchmarks, relative to its predecessor, our analysis suggests that the interannual variability (IAV) in net terrestrial carbon fluxes did not show similar improvements. The model simulated low IAV of net ecosystem production (NEP), resulting in a weaker than observed sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate variability. Low IAV in net fluxes likely resulted from low variability in gross primary productivity (GPP)—especially in the tropics—and a high covariation between GPP and ecosystem respiration. Although lower than observed, the IAV of NEP had significant climate sensitivities, with positive NEP anomalies associated with warmer and drier conditions in high latitudes, and with wetter and cooler conditions in mid and low latitudes. We identified two dominant modes of seasonal variability in carbon cycle flux anomalies in our fully coupled CESM2 simulations that are characterized by seasonal amplification and redistribution of ecosystem fluxes. Seasonal amplification of net and gross carbon fluxes showed climate sensitivities mirroring those of annual fluxes. Seasonal redistribution of carbon fluxes is initiated by springtime temperature anomalies, but subsequently negative feedbacks in soil moisture during the summer and fall result in net annual carbon losses from land. These modes of variability are also seen in satellite proxies of GPP, suggesting that CESM2 appropriately represents regional sensitivities of photosynthesis to climate variability on seasonal time scales.

    

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4. Contrasting ecosystem CO 2 fluxes of inland and coastal wetlands: a meta‐analysis of eddy covariance data

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13424  

   Lu, Weizhi ; Xiao, Jingfeng ; Liu, Fang ; Zhang, Yue ; Liu, Chang'an ; Lin, Guanghui ( August 2016 , Global Change Biology)

   Wetlands play an important role in regulating the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations and thus affecting the climate. However, there is still lack of quantitative evaluation of such a role across different wetland types, especially at the global scale. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis to compare ecosystemCO₂fluxes among various types of wetlands using a global database compiled from the literature. This database consists of 143 site‐years of eddy covariance data from 22 inland wetland and 21 coastal wetland sites across the globe. Coastal wetlands had higher annual gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_e), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) than inland wetlands. On a per unit area basis, coastal wetlands provided largeCO₂sinks, while inland wetlands provided smallCO₂sinks or were nearlyCO₂neutral. The annualCO₂sink strength was 93.15 and 208.37 g C m⁻²for inland and coastal wetlands, respectively. AnnualCO₂fluxes were mainly regulated by mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). For coastal and inland wetlands combined,MATandMAPexplained 71%, 54%, and 57% of the variations inGPP,R_e, andNEP, respectively. TheCO₂fluxes of wetlands were also related to leaf area index (LAI). TheCO₂fluxes also varied with water table depth (WTD), although the effects ofWTDwere not statistically significant.NEPwas jointly determined byGPPandR_efor both inland and coastal wetlands. However, theNEP/R_eandNEP/GPPratios exhibited little variability for inland wetlands and decreased for coastal wetlands with increasing latitude. The contrasting ofCO₂fluxes between inland and coastal wetlands globally can improve our understanding of the roles of wetlands in the global C cycle. Our results also have implications for informing wetland management and climate change policymaking, for example, the efforts being made by international organizations and enterprises to restore coastal wetlands for enhancing blue carbon sinks.

    

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5. Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1  

   Langehaug, H. R. ; Ortega, P. ; Counillon, F. ; Matei, D. ; Maroon, E. ; Keenlyside, N. ; Mignot, J. ; Wang, Y. ; Swingedouw, D. ; Bethke, I. ; et al ( April 2022 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic) and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at a lead time of 1–2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatiotemporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents, the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatiotemporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and the physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved. Significance Statement In this study, we find that dynamical prediction systems and their respective climate models struggle to realistically represent ocean surface temperature variability in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic seas on interannual-to-decadal time scales. In previous studies, ocean advection is proposed as a key mechanism in propagating temperature anomalies along the Atlantic water pathway toward the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that the predicted temperature anomalies are not properly circulated to the north; this is a result of model errors that seems to be exacerbated by the effect of initialization shocks and forecast drift. Better climate predictions in the study region will thus require improving the initialization step, as well as enhancing process representation in the climate models. 

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