Summary Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms are widely accepted as powerful computational tools for making inference with dynamical systems. A key step in sequential Monte Carlo is resampling, which plays the role of steering the algorithm towards the future dynamics. Several strategies have been used in practice, including multinomial resampling, residual resampling, optimal resampling, stratified resampling and optimal transport resampling. In one-dimensional cases, we show that optimal transport resampling is equivalent to stratified resampling on the sorted particles, and both strategies minimize the resampling variance as well as the expected squared energy distance between the original and resampled empirical distributions. For general $d$-dimensional cases, we show that if the particles are first sorted using the Hilbert curve, the variance of stratified resampling is $O(m^{-(1+2/d)})$, an improvement over the best previously known rate of $O(m^{-(1+1/d)})$, where $m$ is the number of resampled particles. We show that this improved rate is optimal for ordered stratified resampling schemes, as conjectured in Gerber et al. (2019). We also present an almost-sure bound on the Wasserstein distance between the original and Hilbert-curve-resampled empirical distributions. In light of these results, we show that for dimension $d>1$ the mean square error of sequential quasi-Monte Carlo with $n$ particles can be $O(n^{-1-4/\{d(d+4)\}})$ if Hilbert curve resampling is used and a specific low-discrepancy set is chosen. To our knowledge, this is the first known convergence rate lower than $o(n^{-1})$.
more »
« less
Sample Out-of-Sample Inference Based on Wasserstein Distance
We present a novel inference approach that we call sample out-of-sample inference. The approach can be used widely, ranging from semisupervised learning to stress testing, and it is fundamental in the application of data-driven distributionally robust optimization. Our method enables measuring the impact of plausible out-of-sample scenarios in a given performance measure of interest, such as a financial loss. The methodology is inspired by empirical likelihood (EL), but we optimize the empirical Wasserstein distance (instead of the empirical likelihood) induced by observations. From a methodological standpoint, our analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the induced Wasserstein-distance profile function shows dramatic qualitative differences relative to EL. For instance, in contrast to EL, which typically yields chi-squared weak convergence limits, our asymptotic distributions are often not chi-squared. Also, the rates of convergence that we obtain have some dependence on the dimension in a nontrivial way but remain controlled as the dimension increases.
more »
« less
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10303857
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Operations Research
- Volume:
- 69
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0030-364X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
more » « less
Abstract Cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistics are widely used in the change point inference and identification. For the problem of testing for existence of a change point in an independent sample generated from the mean-shift model, we introduce a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap to calibrate critical values of the CUSUM test statistics in high dimensions. The proposed bootstrap CUSUM test is fully data dependent and it has strong theoretical guarantees under arbitrary dependence structures and mild moment conditions. Specifically, we show that with a boundary removal parameter the bootstrap CUSUM test enjoys the uniform validity in size under the null and it achieves the minimax separation rate under the sparse alternatives when the dimension p can be larger than the sample size n.
Once a change point is detected, we estimate the change point location by maximising the ℓ∞-norm of the generalised CUSUM statistics at two different weighting scales corresponding to covariance stationary and non-stationary CUSUM statistics. For both estimators, we derive their rates of convergence and show that dimension impacts the rates only through logarithmic factors, which implies that consistency of the CUSUM estimators is possible when p is much larger than n. In the presence of multiple change points, we propose a principled bootstrap-assisted binary segmentation (BABS) algorithm to dynamically adjust the change point detection rule and recursively estimate their locations. We derive its rate of convergence under suitable signal separation and strength conditions.
The results derived in this paper are non-asymptotic and we provide extensive simulation studies to assess the finite sample performance. The empirical evidence shows an encouraging agreement with our theoretical results.
-
Statistical divergences (SDs), which quantify the dissimilarity between probability distributions, are a basic constituent of statistical inference and machine learning. A modern method for estimating those divergences relies on parametrizing an empirical variational form by a neural network (NN) and optimizing over parameter space. Such neural estimators are abundantly used in practice, but corresponding performance guarantees are partial and call for further exploration. We establish non-asymptotic absolute error bounds for a neural estimator realized by a shallow NN, focusing on four popular 𝖿-divergences---Kullback-Leibler, chi-squared, squared Hellinger, and total variation. Our analysis relies on non-asymptotic function approximation theorems and tools from empirical process theory to bound the two sources of error involved: function approximation and empirical estimation. The bounds characterize the effective error in terms of NN size and the number of samples, and reveal scaling rates that ensure consistency. For compactly supported distributions, we further show that neural estimators of the first three divergences above with appropriate NN growth-rate are minimax rate-optimal, achieving the parametric convergence rate.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Summary This paper is concerned with empirical likelihood inference on the population mean when the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ satisfy $p/n\rightarrow c\in [1,\infty)$. As shown in Tsao (2004), the empirical likelihood method fails with high probability when $p/n>1/2$ because the convex hull of the $n$ observations in $\mathbb{R}^p$ becomes too small to cover the true mean value. Moreover, when $p> n$, the sample covariance matrix becomes singular, and this results in the breakdown of the first sandwich approximation for the log empirical likelihood ratio. To deal with these two challenges, we propose a new strategy of adding two artificial data points to the observed data. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed empirical likelihood ratio test. The proposed test statistic does not involve the inverse of the sample covariance matrix. Furthermore, its form is explicit, so the test can easily be carried out with low computational cost. Our numerical comparison shows that the proposed test outperforms some existing tests for high-dimensional mean vectors in terms of power. We also illustrate the proposed procedure with an empirical analysis of stock data.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Statistical inference can be performed by minimizing, over the parameter space, the Wasserstein distance between model distributions and the empirical distribution of the data. We study asymptotic properties of such minimum Wasserstein distance estimators, complementing results derived by Bassetti, Bodini and Regazzini in 2006. In particular, our results cover the misspecified setting, in which the data-generating process is not assumed to be part of the family of distributions described by the model. Our results are motivated by recent applications of minimum Wasserstein estimators to complex generative models. We discuss some difficulties arising in the numerical approximation of these estimators. Two of our numerical examples ($g$-and-$\kappa$ and sum of log-normals) are taken from the literature on approximate Bayesian computation and have likelihood functions that are not analytically tractable. Two other examples involve misspecified models.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2020.2028
