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1. Quantifying the Interdependency Strength Across Critical Infrastructure Systems Using A Dynamic Network Flow Redistribution Model.

   Wang, Y. ; Yu, J. ; Baroud, H. ( July 2020 , Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference.)

   Baraldi, P. ; null ; Zio, E. (Ed.)

   Critical infrastructure networks are becoming increasingly interdependent which adversely impacts their performance through the cascading effect of initial failures. Failing to account for these complex interactions could lead to an underestimation of the vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure (ICI). The goal of this research is to assess how important interdependent links are by evaluating the interdependency strength using a dynamic network flow redistribution model which accounts for the dynamic and uncertain aspects of interdependencies. Specifically, a vulnerability analysis is performed considering two scenarios, one with interdependent links and the other without interdependent links. The initial failure is set to be the same under both scenarios. Cascading failure is modeled through a flow redistribution until the entire system reaches a stable state in which cascading failure no longer occurs. The unmet demand of the networks at the stable state over the initial demand is defined as the vulnerability. The difference between the vulnerability of each network under these two scenarios is used as the metric to quantify interdependency strength. A case study of a real power-water-gas system subject to earthquake risk is conducted to illustrate the proposed method. Uncertainty is incorporated by considering failure probability using Monte Carlo simulation. By varying the location and magnitude of earthquake disruptions, we show that interdependency strength is determined not only by the topology and flow of ICIs but also the characteristics of the disruptions. This compound system-disruption effect on interdependency strength can inform the design, assessment, and restoration of ICIs. 

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2. Ontology Modelling of Industrial Control System Ethical Hacking

   https://doi.org/10.34190/IWS.21.091  

   Heverin, T. ; Chandnani, A. ; Lopez, C. ; Brahmhatt, N. ( February 2021 , International Conference on Cyber Warfare and Security)

   Industrial control systems (ICS) include systems that control industrial processes in critical infrastructure such as electric grids, nuclear power plants, manufacturing plans, water treatment systems, pharmaceutical plants, and building automation systems. ICS represent complex systems that contain an abundance of unique devices all of which may hold different types of software, including applications, firmware and operating systems. Due to their ability to control physical infrastructure, ICS have more and more become targets of cyber-attacks, increasing the risk of serious damage, negative financial impact, disruption to business operations, disruption to communities, and even the loss of life. Ethical hacking represents one way to test the security of ICS. Ethical hacking consists of using a cyber-attacker's perspective and a variety of cybersecurity tools to actively discover vulnerabilities and entry points for potential cyber-attacks. However, ICS ethical hacking represents a difficult task due to the wide variety of devices found on ICS networks. Most ethical hackers do not hold expertise or knowledge about ICS hardware, device computing elements, protocols, vulnerabilities found on these elements, and exploits used to exploit these vulnerabilities. Effective approaches are needed to reduce the complexity of ICS ethical hacking tasks. In this study, we use ontology modeling, a knowledge representation approach in artificial intelligence (AI), to model data that represent ethical hacking tasks of building automation systems. With ontology modeling, information is stored and represented in the form of semantic graphs that express individuals, their properties, and the relations between multiple individuals. Data are drawn from sources such as the National Vulnerability Database, ExploitDB, Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE), the Common Attack Pattern and Enumeration Classification (CAPEC), and others. We show, through semantic queries, how the ontology model can automatically link together entities such as software names and versions of ICS software, vulnerabilities found on those software instances, vulnerabilities found on the protocols used by the software, exploits found on those vulnerabilities, weaknesses that represent those vulnerabilities, and attacks that can exploit those weaknesses. The ontology modeling of ICS ethical hacking and the semantic queries run over the model can reduce the complexity of ICS hacking tasks. 

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3. A socio-technical approach for the assessment of critical infrastructure system vulnerability in extreme weather events

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01315-7  

   Montoya-Rincon, Juan P. ; Mejia-Manrique, Said A. ; Azad, Shams ; Ghandehari, Masoud ; Harmsen, Eric W. ; Khanbilvardi, Reza ; Gonzalez-Cruz, Jorge E. ( July 2023 , Nature Energy)

   The recurrence of extreme weather events has led to the development of methods for assessing the vulnerability and interdependencies of physical and human systems. A case example is Hurricane Maria (H-Maria), where Puerto Rico experienced damage to 80% of its electrical power system, leading to massive disruptions of essential services for months. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of various interventions aimed at reducing vulnerability by considering power and water infrastructure and respective water–power dependencies while also considering the social vulnerability of affected communities associated with the physical infrastructure upgrades. On the basis of the current infrastructure configuration, we found that all communities suffered enormously from power and water outages. As one upgrade option, we show that incorporating regional energy grids would reduce outages in an H-Maria scenario. However, a large portion of disadvantaged communities will face service disruption under this option. In contrast, hardening transmission lines, as the second option, would improve service delivery and, most importantly, provide uninterrupted service to the higher portion of the vulnerable population. 

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4. Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

   https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13340  

   Gomez, Camilo ; González, Andrés D. ; Baroud, Hiba ; Bedoya‐Motta, Claudia D. ( June 2019 , Risk Analysis)

   Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.

    

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5. COVID-19 and Housing Security in Remote Alaska Native Communities

   Nicewonger, Todd E. ; McNair, Lisa D. ; Fritz, Stacey ; Supple, Laura ; Criss-Carboy, Laura ( November 2023 , Virginia Tech Publishing)

   Nicewonger, Todd E. ; McNair, Lisa D. ; Fritz, Stacey (Ed.)

   https://pressbooks.lib.vt.edu/alaskanative/ At the start of the pandemic, the editors of this annotated bibliography initiated a remote (i.e., largely virtual) ethnographic research project that investigated how COVID-19 was impacting off-site modular construction practices in Alaska Native communities. Many of these communities are located off the road system and thus face not only dramatically higher costs but multiple logistical challenges in securing licensed tradesmen and construction crews and in shipping building supplies and equipment to their communities. These barriers, as well as the region’s long winters and short building seasons, complicate the construction of homes and related infrastructure projects. Historically, these communities have also grappled with inadequate housing, including severe overcrowding and poor-quality building stock that is rarely designed for northern Alaska’s climate (Marino 2015). Moreover, state and federal bureaucracies and their associated funding opportunities often further complicate home building by failing to accommodate the digital divide in rural Alaska and the cultural values and practices of Native communities.[1] It is not surprising, then, that as we were conducting fieldwork for this project, we began hearing stories about these issues and about how the restrictions caused by the pandemic were further exacerbating them. Amidst these stories, we learned about how modular home construction was being imagined as a possible means for addressing both the complications caused by the pandemic and the need for housing in the region (McKinstry 2021). As a result, we began to investigate how modular construction practices were figuring into emergent responses to housing needs in Alaska communities. We soon realized that we needed to broaden our focus to capture a variety of prefabricated building methods that are often colloquially or idiomatically referred to as “modular.” This included a range of prefabricated building systems (e.g., manufactured, volumetric modular, system-built, and Quonset huts and other reused military buildings[2]). Our further questions about prefabricated housing in the region became the basis for this annotated bibliography. Thus, while this bibliography is one of multiple methods used to investigate these issues, it played a significant role in guiding our research and helped us bring together the diverse perspectives we were hearing from our interviews with building experts in the region and the wider debates that were circulating in the media and, to a lesser degree, in academia. The actual research for each of three sections was carried out by graduate students Lauren Criss-Carboy and Laura Supple.[3] They worked with us to identify source materials and their hard work led to the team identifying three themes that cover intersecting topics related to housing security in Alaska during the pandemic. The source materials collected in these sections can be used in a variety of ways depending on what readers are interested in exploring, including insights into debates on housing security in the region as the pandemic was unfolding (2021-2022). The bibliography can also be used as a tool for thinking about the relational aspects of these themes or the diversity of ways in which information on housing was circulating during the pandemic (and the implications that may have had on community well-being and preparedness). That said, this bibliography is not a comprehensive analysis. Instead, by bringing these three sections together with one another to provide a snapshot of what was happening at that time, it provides a critical jumping off point for scholars working on these issues. The first section focuses on how modular housing figured into pandemic responses to housing needs. In exploring this issue, author Laura Supple attends to both state and national perspectives as part of a broader effort to situate Alaska issues with modular housing in relation to wider national trends. This led to the identification of multiple kinds of literature, ranging from published articles to publicly circulated memos, blog posts, and presentations. These materials are important source materials that will likely fade in the vastness of the Internet and thus may help provide researchers with specific insights into how off-site modular construction was used – and perhaps hyped – to address pandemic concerns over housing, which in turn may raise wider questions about how networks, institutions, and historical experiences with modular construction are organized and positioned to respond to major societal disruptions like the pandemic. As Supple pointed out, most of the material identified in this review speaks to national issues and only a scattering of examples was identified that reflect on the Alaskan context. The second section gathers a diverse set of communications exploring housing security and homelessness in the region. The lack of adequate, healthy housing in remote Alaska communities, often referred to as Alaska’s housing crisis, is well-documented and preceded the pandemic (Guy 2020). As the pandemic unfolded, journalists and other writers reported on the immense stress that was placed on already taxed housing resources in these communities (Smith 2020; Lerner 2021). The resulting picture led the editors to describe in their work how housing security in the region exists along a spectrum that includes poor quality housing as well as various forms of houselessness including, particularly relevant for the context, “hidden homelessness” (Hope 2020; Rogers 2020). The term houseless is a revised notion of homelessness because it captures a richer array of both permanent and temporary forms of housing precarity that people may experience in a region (Christensen et al. 2107). By identifying sources that reflect on the multiple forms of housing insecurity that people were facing, this section highlights the forms of disparity that complicated pandemic responses. Moreover, this section underscores ingenuity (Graham 2019; Smith 2020; Jason and Fashant 2021) that people on the ground used to address the needs of their communities. The third section provides a snapshot from the first year of the pandemic into how CARES Act funds were allocated to Native Alaska communities and used to address housing security. This subject was extremely complicated in Alaska due to the existence of for-profit Alaska Native Corporations and disputes over eligibility for the funds impacted disbursements nationwide. The resources in this section cover that dispute, impacts of the pandemic on housing security, and efforts to use the funds for housing as well as barriers Alaska communities faced trying to secure and use the funds. In summary, this annotated bibliography provides an overview of what was happening, in real time, during the pandemic around a specific topic: housing security in largely remote Alaska Native communities. The media used by housing specialists to communicate the issues discussed here are diverse, ranging from news reports to podcasts and from blogs to journal articles. This diversity speaks to the multiple ways in which information was circulating on housing at a time when the nightly news and radio broadcasts focused heavily on national and state health updates and policy developments. Finding these materials took time, and we share them here because they illustrate why attention to housing security issues is critical for addressing crises like the pandemic. For instance, one theme that emerged out of a recent National Science Foundation workshop on COVID research in the North NSF Conference[4] was that Indigenous communities are not only recovering from the pandemic but also evaluating lessons learned to better prepare for the next one, and resilience will depend significantly on more—and more adaptable—infrastructure and greater housing security. 

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