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1. Projecting End-of-Century Human Exposure from Tornadoes and Severe Hailstorms in Eastern Colorado: Meteorological and Population Perspectives

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0153.1  

   Childs, Samuel J.; Schumacher, Russ S.; Strader, Stephen M. (July 2020, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   Abstract Severe convective storms along the Front Range and eastern plains of Colorado frequently produce tornadoes and hail, leading to substantial damage and crop losses annually. Determination of future human exposure from these events must consider both changes in meteorological conditions and population dynamics. Projections of EF0 + tornadoes (on the enhanced Fujita scale) and severe [1.0+ in. (25.4+ mm)] hail reports out to the year 2100 are computed using convective parameter proxies generated from dynamically downscaled GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), output by the WRF Model for control and future climate scenarios. The proxies suggest that tornado and hail days in the region may increase by up to one tornado day and three hail days per year by 2100, with the greatest increases across northeastern Colorado. Using a spatially explicit Monte Carlo model, projected future frequency and spatial changes in tornadoes and hail are superimposed with population projections from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to provide a range of possible scenarios for end-of-century human exposure to tornadoes and hailstorms. Changes in hazard frequency and spatial distribution may amplify human exposure up to 117% for tornadoes and 178% for hail in the region by 2100, although specific results are sensitive to uncertain combinations of future overlaps between hazard spatial distribution and population. Findings presented herein not only will provide the public, insurers, policy makers, land-use planners, and researchers with estimates of potential future tornado and hail impacts in the Front Range region, they also will allow the weather enterprise to better understand, prepare for, and communicate tornado and hail risk to eastern Colorado communities. 

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2. Wildfire across agricultural landscapes: farmer and rancher experiences and perceptions in the southern great plains

   https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2024.2304201  

   Bergtold, Jason S.; Caldas, Marcelus M.; Joslin, Audrey; Gharib, Mariam (January 2024, Environmental Hazards)

   Wildfire frequency and intensity has increased across the Southern Great Plains of the United States and other similar landscapes worldwide in part due to climate change. It is important that policymakers, practitioners, and the agricultural community better understand the impact from increased wildfire incidence and severity across different agricultural landscapes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of wildfires across an agricultural landscape of the Southern Great Plains. Using primary data collected from semi-structured interviews of farmers and ranchers in the study region, we quantitatively explore farmers’ and ranchers’ perceptions and experiences about wildfires in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. About 80% of the producers interviewed had directly experienced wildfire on their property, including significant losses to farmer livelihoods, food stocks (crops and livestock), forages, native grasslands, and structures (building and fencing). Many producers perceived wildfire frequency had increased and another megafire event was very likely. To help reduce wildfire risk for producers in the Southern Great Plains more timely education and outreach efforts about wildfire mitigation, organisation of local fire associations, more timely disaster assistance, and innovative insurance solutions would be useful. 

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3. Identifying Barriers to Implementation of Regenerative Agricultural Solutions Through Convergence Research

   https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030446  

   McCarthy, Sarah G; Rushforth, Richard R (February 2025, Land)

   Aridification in the U.S. Southwest has led to tension about conservation and land management strategy. Strain on multi-generational agricultural livelihoods and nearly 150-year-old Colorado River water adjudication necessitates solutions from transdisciplinary partnerships. In this study, farmers and ranchers in a small San Juan River headwater community of southwestern Colorado engaged in a participatory, convergent research study prioritizing local objectives and policy. Acknowledging the historic and sometimes perceived role of academic institutions as representing urban interests, our goal was to highlight how research can support rural governance. This process involved creating community partnerships, analyzing data, and supporting results distribution to the surveyed population through social media. The survey was designed to support a local waterway management plan. Survey results showed lack of water availability and climate changes were selected by producers as most negatively affecting their operations, and many were extremely interested in agroforestry methods and drought-resistant crop species. Statistical analysis identified that satisfaction with community resources was positively correlated with scale of production, satisfaction with irrigation equipment, and familiarity with water rights. We hope to contribute our framework of a convergent, place-based research design for wider applications in other regions to uncover solutions to resource challenges. 

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4. Subtropical South American Hailstorm Characteristics and Environments

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0011.1  

   Bruick, Zachary S.; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Cecil, Daniel J. (November 2019, Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract Hailstorms in subtropical South America are known to be some of the most frequent anywhere in the world, causing significant damage to the local agricultural economy every year. Convection in this region tends to be orographically forced, with moisture supplied from the Amazon rain forest by the South American low-level jet. Previous climatologies of hailstorms in this region have been limited to localized and sparse observational networks. Because of the lack of sufficient ground-based radar coverage, objective radar-derived hail climatologies have also not been produced for this region. As a result, this study uses a 16-yr dataset of TRMM Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager observations to identify possible hailstorms remotely, using 37-GHz brightness temperature as a hail proxy. By combining satellite instruments and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study produces the first objective study of hailstorms in this region. Hailstorms in subtropical South America have an extended diurnal cycle, often occurring in the overnight hours. In addition, they tend to be multicellular in nature, rather than discrete. High-probability hailstorms (≥50% probability of containing hail) tend to be deeper by 1–2 km and horizontally larger by greater than 15 000 km2 than storms having a low probability of containing hail (<25% probability of containing hail). Hailstorms are supported synoptically by strong upper- and lower-level jets, anomalously warm and moist low levels, and enhanced instability. The findings of this study will support the forecasting of these severe storms and mitigation of their damage within this region. 

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5. An Updated Severe Hail and Tornado Climatology for Eastern Colorado

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0098.1  

   Childs, Samuel J.; Schumacher, Russ S. (October 2019, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology)

   Abstract A localized tornado and severe hail climatology is updated and enhanced for eastern Colorado. This region is one of the most active severe weather areas in the United States because of its location immediately east of the Rocky Mountains, intrusions of Gulf of Mexico moisture into a dry climate, and various small-scale topographically forced features such as the “Denver Cyclone.” Since the 1950s, both annual tornado and severe (≥1.0 in.; 1 in. = 25.4 mm) hail reports and days have been increasing across the area, but several nonmeteorological factors distort the record. Of note is a large population bias in the severe hail data, with reports aligned along major roadways and in cities, and several field projects contributing to an absence of (E)F0 tornado reports [on the (enhanced) Fujita scale] in the 1980s. In the more consistently observed period since 1997, tornado reports and days show a slight decreasing trend while severe hail reports and days show an increasing trend, although large variability exists on the county level. Eastern Colorado tornadoes are predominantly weak, rarely above (E)F1 intensity, and with a maximum just east of the northern urban corridor. Severe hail has a maximum along the foothills and shows a trend toward a larger ratio of significant (≥2.0 in.; ≥50.8 mm) hail to severe hail reports over time. Both tornadoes and severe hail have trended toward shorter seasons since 1997, mostly attributable to an earlier end to the season. By assessing current and historical trends from a more localized perspective, small-scale climatological features and local societal impacts are exposed—features that national climatologies can miss. 

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