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1. Characterizing Risks for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires in the Great Plains

   https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8060235  

   Liu, Z; Okafor, IO; George, MB (June 2025, Fire)

   GrantWilliamson (Ed.)

   Increasing wildfire activities across the Great Plains has raised concerns about the effectiveness and safety of prescribed fire as a land management tool. This study analyzes wildfire records from 1992 to 2020 to assess spatiotemporal patterns in wildfire risk and evaluate the role of prescribed fires through the combined analysis of wildfire and prescribed fire data. Results show a threefold increase in both wildfire frequency and area burned, with fire size increasing from east to west and frequency rising from north to south. Wildfire seasons are gradually occurring earlier due to climate change. Negative correlation between prescribed fires in spring and wildfires in summer indicated the effectiveness of prescribed fire in mitigating wildfire risk. Drought severity accounted for 51% of the interannual variability in area burned, while grass curing accounted for 60% of monthly variability of wildfires in grasslands. The ratio of wildfire area burned to total area burned (dominated by prescribed fires) declined from over 20% in early March to below 1% by early April. The results will lay a foundation for the development of a localized fire risk assessment tool that integrates various long-term, mid-term, and short-term risk factors, and support more effective fire management in this region. 

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2. Land-Use Type as a Driver of Large Wildfire Occurrence in the U.S. Great Plains

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12111869  

   Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Wedin, David A.; Twidwell, Dirac (June 2020, Remote Sensing)

   Wildfire activity has surged in North America’s temperate grassland biome. Like many biomes, this system has undergone drastic land-use change over the last century; however, how various land-use types contribute to wildfire patterns in grassland systems is unclear. We determine if certain land-use types have a greater propensity for large wildfire in the U.S. Great Plains and how this changes given the percentage of land covered by a given land-use type. Almost 90% of the area burned in the Great Plains occurred in woody and grassland land-use types. Although grassland comprised the greatest area burned by large wildfires, woody vegetation burned disproportionately more than any other land-use type in the Great Plains. Wildfires were more likely to occur when woody vegetation composed greater than 20% of the landscape. Wildfires were unlikely to occur in croplands, pasture/hay fields, and developed areas. Although these patterns varied by region, wildfire was most likely to occur in woody vegetation and/or grassland in 13 of 14 ecoregions we assessed. Because woody vegetation is more conducive to extreme wildfire behaviour than other land-use types in the Great Plains, woody encroachment could pose a large risk for increasing wildfire exposure. Regional planning could leverage differential wildfire activity across land-uses to devise targeted approaches that decrease human exposure in a system prone to fire. 

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3. Land-Use Type as a Driver of Large Wildfire Occurrence in the U.S. Great Plains

   Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Wedin, David A.; and Twidwell, Dirac. (June 2020, Remote sensing)

   null (Ed.)

   Wildfire activity has surged in North America’s temperate grassland biome. Like many biomes, this system has undergone drastic land-use change over the last century; however, how various land-use types contribute to wildfire patterns in grassland systems is unclear. We determine if certain land-use types have a greater propensity for large wildfire in the U.S. Great Plains and how this changes given the percentage of land covered by a given land-use type. Almost 90% of the area burned in the Great Plains occurred in woody and grassland land-use types. Although grassland comprised the greatest area burned by large wildfires, woody vegetation burned disproportionately more than any other land-use type in the Great Plains. Wildfires were more likely to occur when woody vegetation composed greater than 20% of the landscape. Wildfires were unlikely to occur in croplands, pasture/hay fields, and developed areas. Although these patterns varied by region, wildfire was most likely to occur in woody vegetation and/or grassland in 13 of 14 ecoregions we assessed. Because woody vegetation is more conducive to extreme wildfire behaviour than other land-use types in the Great Plains, woody encroachment could pose a large risk for increasing wildfire exposure. Regional planning could leverage differential wildfire activity across land-uses to devise targeted approaches that decrease human exposure in a system prone to fire. 

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4. Resilience to Large, “Catastrophic” Wildfires in North America's Grassland Biome

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001487  

   Donovan, Victoria M.; Twidwell, Dirac; Uden, Daniel R.; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Wardlow, Brian D.; Bielski, Christine H.; Jones, Matthew O.; Allred, Brady W.; Naugle, David E.; Allen, Craig R. (July 2020, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Wildfires are ecosystem‐level drivers of structure and function in many vegetated biomes. While numerous studies have emphasized the benefits of fire to ecosystems, large wildfires have also been associated with the loss of ecosystem services and shifts in vegetation abundance. The size and number of wildfires are increasing across a number of regions, and yet the outcomes of large wildfire on vegetation at large‐scales are still largely unknown. We introduce an exhaustive analysis of wildfire‐scale vegetation response to large wildfires across North America's grassland biome. We use 18 years of a newly released vegetation data set combined with 1,390 geospatial wildfire perimeters and drought data to detect large‐scale vegetation response among multiple vegetation functional groups. We found no evidence of persistent declines in vegetation driven by wildfire at the biome level. All vegetation functional groups exhibited relatively rapid recovery to pre wildfire ranges of variation across the Great Plains ecoregions, with the exception being a persistent decrease in the abundance of trees in the Northwestern Great Plains. Drought intensity magnified immediate vegetation response to wildfire. Persistent declines in vegetation cover were observed at the scale of single pixels (30 m), suggesting that these responses were localized and represent extreme cases within larger wildfires. Our findings echo over a century of research demonstrating a biome resilient to wildfire. 

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5. Scalar Mismatches and Underlying Factors for Underutilization of Climate Information: Perspectives From Farmers and Ranchers

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.663071  

   Smith, Ada P.; Yung, Laurie; Snitker, Adam J.; Bocinsky, R. Kyle; Metcalf, Elizabeth Covelli; Jencso, Kelsey (April 2021, Frontiers in Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Growing demand for water resources coupled with climate-driven water scarcity and variability present critical challenges to agriculture in the Western US. Despite extensive resources allocated to downscaling climate projections and advances in understanding past, current, and future climatic conditions, climate information is underutilized in decisions made by agricultural producers. Climate information providers need to understand why this information is underutilized and what would better meet the needs of producers. To better understand how agricultural producers perceive and utilize climate information, we conducted five focus groups with farmers and ranchers across Montana. Focus groups revealed that there are fundamental scalar issues (spatial and temporal) that make climate information challenging for producers to use. While climate information is typically produced at regional, national, or global spatial scales and at a seasonal and mid- to end-of-century temporal scales, producers indicated that decision-making takes place at multiple intermediate and small temporal and spatial scales. In addition, producers described other drivers of decision-making that have little to do with climate information itself, but rather aspects of source credibility, past experience, trust in information, and the politics of climate change. Through engaging directly with end-users, climate information providers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales that align with different types of agricultural producers and decisions, as well as the limitations of information provision given the complexity of the decision context. Increased engagement between climate information providers and end-users can also address the important tradeoffs that exist between scale and uncertainty. 

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