In group anagram games, players cooperate to form words by sharing letters that they are initially given. The aim is to form as many words as possible as a group, within five minutes. Players take several different actions: requesting letters from their neighbors, replying to letter requests, and forming words. Agent-based models (ABMs) for the game compute likelihoods of each player’s next action, which contain uncertainty, as they are estimated from experimental data. We adopt a Bayesian approach as a natural means of quantifying uncertainty, to enhance the ABM for the group anagram game. Specifically, a Bayesian nonparametric clustering method is used to group player behaviors into different clusters without pre-specifying the number of clusters. Bayesian multi nominal regression is adopted to model the transition probabilities among different actions of the players in the ABM. We describe the methodology and the benefits of it, and perform agent-based simulations of the game.
Approaches to Uncertainty Quantification in Building Models of Human Behavior
In a group anagram game, players are provided letters to form as many words as possible. They can also request letters from their neighbors and reply to letter requests. Currently, a single agent-based model is produced from all experimental data, with dependence only on number of neighbors. In this work, we build, exercise, and evaluate enhanced agent behavior models for networked group anagram games under an uncertainty quantification framework. Specifically, we cluster game data for players based on their skill levels (forming words, requesting letters, and replying to requests), perform multinomial logistic regression for transition probabilities, and quantify uncertainty within each cluster. The result of this process is a model where players are assigned different numbers of neighbors and different skill levels in the game. We conduct simulations of ego agents with neighbors to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed methods.
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- Winter Simulation Conference
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