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Title: Improving the monitoring of deciduous broadleaf phenology using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 16 and 17
Abstract. Monitoring leaf phenology tracks the progression ofclimate change and seasonal variations in a variety of organismal andecosystem processes. Networks of finite-scale remote sensing, such as thePhenoCam network, provide valuable information on phenological state at hightemporal resolution, but they have limited coverage. Satellite-based data withlower temporal resolution have primarily been used to more broadly measurephenology (e.g., 16 d MODIS normalizeddifference vegetation index (NDVI) product). Recent versions of the GeostationaryOperational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16 and GOES-17) can monitor NDVI attemporal scales comparable to that of PhenoCam throughout most of thewestern hemisphere. Here we begin to examine the current capacity of thesenew data to measure the phenology of deciduous broadleaf forests for thefirst 2 full calendar years of data (2018 and 2019) by fittingdouble-logistic Bayesian models and comparing the transition dates of the start, middle, and end of theseason to those obtained from PhenoCam and MODIS 16 dNDVI and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) products. Compared to these MODIS products, GOES was morecorrelated with PhenoCam at the start and middle of spring but had a largerbias (3.35 ± 0.03 d later than PhenoCam) at the end of spring.Satellite-based autumn transition dates were mostly uncorrelated with thoseof PhenoCam. PhenoCam data produced significantly more certain (allp values ≤0.013) estimates of all transition more » dates than any of thesatellite sources did. GOES transition date uncertainties were significantlysmaller than those of MODIS EVI for all transition dates (all p values ≤0.026), but they were only smaller (based on p value <0.05) than thosefrom MODIS NDVI for the estimates of the beginning and middle of spring. GOES willimprove the monitoring of phenology at large spatial coverages and providesreal-time indicators of phenological change even when the entire springtransition period occurs within the 16 d resolution of these MODISproducts. « less
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