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1. A Model for the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Response to Idealized Landfall

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0156.1  

   Chen, Jie ; Chavas, Daniel R. ( April 2023 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value. This work tests existing theory for wind structure and size over the ocean against idealized axisymmetric landfall experiments in which the surface beneath a mature storm is instantaneously dried and roughened individually or simultaneously. Structure theory captures the response of the low-level wind field to different types of idealized landfalls, given the intensity and size response. Storm size, modeled to follow the ratio of simulated time-dependent storm intensity to the Coriolis parameter, can generally predict the transient response of the storm gale wind radiir_34ktto inland surface forcings, particularly for at least moderate surface roughening regardless of the level of drying. Given knowledge of the intensity evolution, the above results combine to yield a theoretical model that can predict the full tangential wind field response to idealized landfalls.

   A theoretical model that can predict the time-dependent wind field structure of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) with a small number of physical, observable input parameters is essential for mitigating hazards and allocating public resources. This work provides a first-order prediction of storm size and structure after landfall, which can be combined with existing intensity predictions to form a simple model describing the inland wind field evolution. Results show its potential utility for modeling idealized inland TC wind fields.

    

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2. The Transient Responses of an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone to Instantaneous Surface Roughening and Drying

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0320.1  

   Chen, Jie ; Chavas, Daniel R. ( August 2020 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Abstract Inland tropical cyclone (TC) impacts due to high winds and rainfall-induced flooding depend strongly on the evolution of the wind field and precipitation distribution after landfall. However, research has yet to test the detailed response of a mature TC and its hazards to changes in surface forcing in idealized settings. This work tests the transient responses of an idealized hurricane to instantaneous transitions in two key surface properties associated with landfall: roughening and drying. Simplified axisymmetric numerical modeling experiments are performed in which the surface drag coefficient and evaporative fraction are each systematically modified beneath a mature hurricane. Surface drying stabilizes the eyewall and consequently weakens the overturning circulation, thereby reducing inward angular momentum transport that slowly decays the wind field only within the inner core. In contrast, surface roughening initially (~12 h) rapidly weakens the entire low-level wind field and enhances the overturning circulation dynamically despite the concurrent thermodynamic stabilization of the eyewall; thereafter the storm gradually decays, similar to drying. As a result, total precipitation temporarily increases with roughening but uniformly decreases with drying. Storm size decreases monotonically and rapidly with surface roughening, whereas the radius of maximum wind can increase with moderate surface drying. Overall, this work provides a mechanistic foundation for understanding the inland evolution of real storms in nature. 

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3. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0027.1  

   Jing, Renzhi ; Lin, Ning ( November 2019 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of storm intensity change and associates each state with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm’s transit from one state to another is described as a Markov chain. Both the intensity change and state transit components of the model are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, and ocean feedback. This Markov Environment-Dependent Hurricane Intensity Model (MeHiM) is used to simulate the evolution of storm intensity along the storm track over the ocean, and a simple decay model is added to estimate the intensity change when the storm moves over land. Data for the North Atlantic (NA) basin from 1979 to 2014 (555 storms) are used for model development and evaluation. Probability distributions of 6- and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity based on model simulations and observations compare well. Although the MeHiM is still limited in fully describing rapid intensification, it shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models). 

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4. The Response of the Near-Surface Tropical Cyclone Wind Field to Inland Surface Roughness Length and Soil Moisture Content during and after Landfall

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0211.1  

   Hlywiak, James ; Nolan, David S. ( March 2021 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The sensitivity of the inland wind decay to realistic inland surface roughness lengths and soil moisture contents is evaluated for strong, idealized tropical cyclones (TCs) of category 4 strength making landfall. Results show that the relative sensitivities to roughness and moisture differ throughout the decay process, and are dependent on the strength and size of the vortex. First, within 12 h of landfall, intense winds at the surface decay rapidly in reaction to the sudden change in surface roughness and decreasing enthalpy fluxes. Wind speeds above the boundary layer decay at a slower rate. Differences in soil moisture contents minimally affect intensity during the first 12 h, as the enhancement of latent heat fluxes from high moisture contents is countered by enhanced surface cooling. After TCs decay to tropical storm intensities, weakening slows and the sensitivity of the intensity decay to soil moisture increases. Increased latent heating becomes significant enough to combat surface temperature cooling, resulting in enhanced convection outside of the expanding radius of maximum winds. This supports a slower decay. Additionally, the decay of the radial wind profile by quadrant is highly asymmetric, as the rear and left-of-motion quadrants decay the fastest. Increasing surface roughness accelerates the decay of the strongest winds, while increasing soil moisture slows the decay of the larger TC wind field. Results have implications for inland forecasting of TC winds and understanding the potential for damage. 

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5. Contribution of Dissipative Heating to the Intensity Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0012.1  

   Wang, Yuqing ; Xu, Jing ; Tan, Zhe-Min ( August 2022 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated the contribution of dissipative heating (DH) to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Since DH is a function of near-surface wind speed and thus TC intensity, a natural question arises as to whether DH contributes to the intensity dependence of TC potential intensification rate (PIR). To address this issue, an attempt has been made to include DH in a recently developed time-dependent theory of TC intensification. With this addition, the theory predicts a shift of the maximum PIR toward the higher intensity side, which is consistent with the intensity dependence of TC intensification rate in observed strong TCs. Since the theory without DH predicts a dependence of TC PIR on the square of the MPI, the inclusion of DH results in an even higher PIR for strong TCs. Considering the projected increase in TC MPI under global warming, the theoretical work implies that as the climate continues to warm, TCs may intensify more rapidly. This may not only make the TC intensity forecasting more difficult, but also may increase the threats of TCs to the coastal populations if TCs intensify more rapidly just before they make landfall. Significance Statement Previous studies have demonstrated that dissipative heating (DH) can significantly contribute to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) that a tropical cyclone (TC) can achieve given favorable environmental thermodynamic conditions of the atmosphere and the underlying ocean. Here we show that because DH is a function of near-surface wind speed and thus TC intensity, DH can also significantly contribute to the intensity dependence of TC potential intensification rate (PIR). This has been demonstrated by introducing DH into a recently developed time-dependent theory of TC intensification. With DH the theory predicts a shift of the maximum PIR toward the higher intensity side as observed in strong TCs. Therefore, as the climate continues to warm, TCs may intensify more rapidly and become stronger. 

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