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Title: Can Existing Theory Predict the Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Idealized Landfall?
Abstract Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, which depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for storm intensification and equilibrium storm intensity have been tested over the open ocean but have not yet been applied to storms after landfall. Recent work examined the transient response of the tropical cyclone low-level wind field to instantaneous surface roughening or drying in idealized axisymmetric f -plane simulations. Here, experiments testing combined surface roughening and drying with varying magnitudes of each are used to test theoretical predictions for the intensity response. The transient response to combined surface forcings can be reproduced by the product of their individual responses, in line with traditional potential intensity theory. Existing intensification theory is generalized to weakening and found capable of reproducing the time-dependent inland intensity decay. The initial (0–10 min) rapid decay of near-surface wind caused by surface roughening is not captured by existing theory but can be reproduced by a simple frictional spindown model, where the decay rate is a function of surface drag coefficient. Finally, the theory is shown to compare well with the prevailing empirical decay model for real-world storms. Overall, results indicate the potential for existing theory to predict how tropical cyclone intensity evolves after landfall.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1826161 1945113
NSF-PAR ID:
10314396
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Volume:
78
Issue:
10
ISSN:
0022-4928
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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