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Abstract Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is important but challenging. In this study, a physically based algebraic decay model for predicting TC weakening after landfall over China is introduced, which assumes the TC weakening rate is proportional to the square of the TC maximum near‐surface wind speed. In this algebraic decay model, a decay parameter including the topographic effect by modifying the surface drag coefficient with the normalized terrain height is determined by minimizing the forecast errors for all landfalling TCs over mainland China during 1980–2020. Results show that the algebraic decay model with topographic effect considered performs better than the commonly used exponential decay model for TCs after landfall over mainland China, especially when TCs move further inland. This new model has a time‐dependent decay parameter along the TC track due to the topographic variation, which is different from the previous exponential decay model.
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The Response of the Near-Surface Tropical Cyclone Wind Field to Inland Surface Roughness Length and Soil Moisture Content during and after Landfall
Abstract The sensitivity of the inland wind decay to realistic inland surface roughness lengths and soil moisture contents is evaluated for strong, idealized tropical cyclones (TCs) of category 4 strength making landfall. Results show that the relative sensitivities to roughness and moisture differ throughout the decay process, and are dependent on the strength and size of the vortex. First, within 12 h of landfall, intense winds at the surface decay rapidly in reaction to the sudden change in surface roughness and decreasing enthalpy fluxes. Wind speeds above the boundary layer decay at a slower rate. Differences in soil moisture contents minimally affect intensity during the first 12 h, as the enhancement of latent heat fluxes from high moisture contents is countered by enhanced surface cooling. After TCs decay to tropical storm intensities, weakening slows and the sensitivity of the intensity decay to soil moisture increases. Increased latent heating becomes significant enough to combat surface temperature cooling, resulting in enhanced convection outside of the expanding radius of maximum winds. This supports a slower decay. Additionally, the decay of the radial wind profile by quadrant is highly asymmetric, as the rear and left-of-motion quadrants decay the fastest. Increasing surface roughness accelerates the decay of the strongest winds, while increasing soil moisture slows the decay of the larger TC wind field. Results have implications for inland forecasting of TC winds and understanding the potential for damage.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1663978
- PAR ID:
- 10282237
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 78
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 983 to 1000
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0211.1
